Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up

#81 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:16 am

“ IF “ bastardi is right about this season look out folks.

With all these things in mind, when it’s all said and done, back to back, this may exceed 2004 and 2005 and become the new benchmark for hurricane hits on the U.S.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Arizona is up

#82 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:27 am

The Penn State model based forecast is out. It predicts a "relatively inactive" season with 11.9 named storms with a range of 9-15. This is in spite of a cool neutral ENSO and warmer than normal MDR forecast by the model. The model does not forecast hurricane or major hurricane numbers.
 https://twitter.com/PCAanalytics/status/1381898467598073860




The model correctly predicted a hyperactive season in 2020, but only predicted 10 NS in 2019 and 2018 which turned out to be way too low.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4

#83 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:58 pm

chris_fit wrote:Wow, those seem like high odds for impacts in FL. Almost a coin flip for a Major getting within 50 miles and 3 outa 4 for a hurricane.


If we're not in the "bullseye" every season, we are not trying.

I'm more fascinated about Penn States's forecast and will be reading it in depth tonight.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Arizona is up

#84 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:15 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The Penn State model based forecast is out. It predicts a "relatively inactive" season with 11.9 named storms with a range of 9-15. This is in spite of a cool neutral ENSO and warmer than normal MDR forecast by the model. The model does not forecast hurricane or major hurricane numbers.
https://twitter.com/PCAanalytics/status/1381898467598073860

The model correctly predicted a hyperactive season in 2020, but only predicted 10 NS in 2019 and 2018 which turned out to be way too low.

The point about it being too low for 2018/19 while correctly forecasting a hyperactive year in 2020 is interesting. Perhaps this means the model is seeing similarities to 2018/19 and 2021 could end up being like those years: active, but not crazy in terms of ACE and either a normal above-average number of storms (2018), or a lot of slop with less strong systems (2019).

Meanwhile, NC State has released their forecast of 15-18 NS, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 majors.

https://news.ncsu.edu/2021/04/2021-hurr ... be-active/
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#85 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:44 am

TWC’s April forecast is out, very similar to CSU.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... il-twc-csu
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up

#86 Postby Steve » Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:11 am

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:JB high risk areas.


The entire US East Coast.... and then some :lol: :lol:


That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up

#87 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:44 pm

Steve wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:JB high risk areas.


The entire US East Coast.... and then some :lol: :lol:


That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.


Yes it is, and the new one is essentially the same IRT the CONUS. He can be a great pattern recognizer but this JB makes me laugh. :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:16 am

The biggest uncertainty in regard to these forecasts is probably ENSO. Warm vs. cool neutral will make a significant difference in regard to NS, ACE, and steering.

I think the ceiling for this upcoming season is quite high, but the range of outcomes is significant, given the predictability barrier. The PMM will play a role, too.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up

#89 Postby Steve » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Steve wrote:
toad strangler wrote:


That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.


Yes it is, and the new one is essentially the same IRT the CONUS. He can be a great pattern recognizer but this JB makes me laugh. :D


I agree with the pattern caveat. He put out a longer video today for the saturday video and explained his reasoning. He had an odd idea (science fiction ****?) that what if 2005 storms which hit off their peaks were 2020 "surprise ** style? As much as I'm crying laughing, I have to admit it's scary as hell. Like that's everybody from Brownsville to maybe say Panama City worried about super late storm peaks and Harvey/Michael type systems. Or Katrina flexing at landfall. I swear I'm literally laughing out loud but sketched and trembling inside. haha Let's hope that's not the way this season goes. Pain on the horizon if so.
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Some of the scientific points to follow from the video were the evolution of a NE trough in May to high pressure in the NW Atlantic ASO. Also, look for the MJO to still have some influence and signaling and try to repeat the 8-1-2 counter to this past winter's phases even if maybe it's not the dominant controlling feature. Joe is hype, but I always get something out of his seasonal forecasts and appreciate them.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#90 Postby tolakram » Tue May 11, 2021 6:33 am

Reminder, this thread is for Expert Forecasts. Everyone is welcome to place their own predictions in the personal forecast thread here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121745
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 12, 2021 8:22 am

NOAA will release their outlook on May 20th.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1392466055038128130


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#92 Postby Astromanía » Wed May 12, 2021 10:25 pm

CONAGUA from Mexico posted its forecast for the 2021 hurricane season in both ATL and EPAC basins, idk if its based on another international forecast or if its actually an own self study
https://mobile.twitter.com/conagua_mx/status/1392561353123155975
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#93 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 13, 2021 6:58 am

19/8/4 numbers increased a bit updated weather channel outlook

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 21-may-twc
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby toad strangler » Wed May 19, 2021 6:00 pm

NOAA tomorrow
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#95 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 19, 2021 7:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:NOAA tomorrow


Yep, should be interesting. My bet is they go with quite a busy season ahead.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2021 7:31 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#97 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 20, 2021 8:10 am



Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby AnnularCane » Thu May 20, 2021 8:33 am

SFLcane wrote:


Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason


I have it on good authority (at least I think it's good authority) that their forecast for last year was 13/7/3.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#99 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 20, 2021 8:39 am

AnnularCane wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason


I have it on good authority (at least I think it's good authority) that their forecast for last year was 13/7/3.


We know how that turned out. :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast up at 11 AM EDT

#100 Postby toad strangler » Thu May 20, 2021 9:47 am

Thread title says 11:00 AM but NOAA website says 12:30 ET
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