Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#121 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:08 pm

TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#122 Postby USTropics » Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/


This link should work - http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJuly2021.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT) TSR=20/9/4

#123 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:18 am

TSR still calling for quite a busy season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#124 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:23 am

CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#125 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:28 am

aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August. :eek:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#126 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:10 am

SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August. :eek:


They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#127 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:25 am

aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


Atlantic is warm north and south but not in the MDR So I'm curious if that can really produce a hyperactive season. My instincts say probably not but if it does I think it would change some of our paradigms.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#128 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:28 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August. :eek:


They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.


Curious what CSU says today. Definitely some mixed signals
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#129 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:26 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


It actually is there most aggressive prediction before August. :eek:


They are for the most part conservative if you look at past forecasts.

July 2016 Forecast: 16/8/3, 115 ACE
Final numbers: 15/7/4, 141 ACE

July 2017 Forecast: 17/7/3, 116 ACE
Final numbers: 17/10/6, 225 ACE

July 2018 Forecast: 9/4/1, 36 ACE
Final numbers: 15/8/2, 132 ACE

July 2019 Forecast: 12/6/2, 89 ACE
Final numbers: 18/6/3, 132 ACE

July 2020 Forecast: 18/8/4, 137 ACE
Final numbers: 30/14/7, 180 ACE

July 2021 Forecast: 20/9/4, 141 ACE
Final number: oh no

TSR has been consistently too low with their ACE predictions. While their NS/H/MH forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were close, ever since then, they have also been too low, especially in 2018 and 2019. However, 2018 was definitely a result of an extremely cold MDR and a possible Nino on the way, both of which were offset by the strong WAM later in the season. I think their 2021 numbers will be close to what we actually see, and that part of the reason they’re so aggressive is due to usually being conservative and last year’s insane activity.

TSR’s ACE forecasts have, on average, been only 60.8% of the true ACE that season finished up at, with the worst estimate being 2018 (36 ACE/27.3% of the actual value) and the best being 2020 (137 ACE/76.1% of the actual value). If this July TSR ACE estimate ends up as 60-80% of the actual ACE we end up seeing, then 2021 could finish with anywhere from 175-235 ACE.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#130 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 08, 2021 8:34 am

SFLcane wrote:
aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:TSR released their updated outlook yesterday. 20/9/4, 141 ACE. The link seems to be broken unfortunately. http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

Wow, just one away from completely exhausting the name list. I believe this is their most aggressive pre-August forecast ever, but I could be wrong. Wonder how much CSU will raise their predicted total today.


Atlantic is warm north and south but not in the MDR So I'm curious if that can really produce a hyperactive season. My instincts say probably not but if it does I think it would change some of our paradigms.

It’s not nearly as bad on NOAA’s Coral Reef SST maps, since CDAS has a significant cold bias and is super sensitive to SAL. Also, if the ITCZ remains tilted like it is now, then AEWs will emerge at a lower latitude compared to last season and remain in warm enough waters throughout their journey. This setup could lead to high ACE Caribbean cruisers, maybe even storms like Ivan, Emily, Dean, and Felix.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)

#131 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:01 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)

#132 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:04 am



Wow!!! Better enjoy this next 2-3 weeks gang cause I see plenty sleepless nights ahead.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)

#133 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:10 am

SFLcane wrote:


Wow!!! Better enjoy this next 2-3 weeks gang cause I see plenty sleepless nights ahead.

Fine by me
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: (CSU July update at noon EDT)

#134 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:15 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#135 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:19 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#136 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:33 am

When does NOAA do their update? I think heading into August ...
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#137 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:46 am

toad strangler wrote:When does NOAA do their update? I think heading into August ...


NOAA be like 9-13 hurricanes and 5-7 majors lol with 26 named storms total.

Bank on it
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#138 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:16 pm

Is the August update the last one? I got a little taken by surprise with this one.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#139 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:23 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Is the August update the last one? I got a little taken by surprise with this one.


On August 5 the last one by CSU.

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=Rest of season =15/8/4

#140 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:35 pm

The CSU forecast now perfectly matches the TSR forecast.
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