Shell Mound wrote:wxman57 wrote:aspen wrote:Hopefully the below-average forecast for the WCar holds. Central America really needs a break after Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota all within 6 weeks.
If I were to put any area as having less of a threat, it would be the eastern Caribbean from PR to Trinidad. It's very questionable as to whether the MDR will recover this year. It's been quite hostile for the past 3-4 seasons, leading to little in the way of significant storms in the deep tropics south of 18N.
By “significant,” I assume you mean major hurricanes. If so, then you are definitely correct, as 2018–20 has only seen MH Lorenzo (2019) in the MDR south of 18°N.
Teddy was pretty close, though. It was around the Cat 2/3 border less than a degree north of 18N. We can attribute 2020’s MDR struggles to the state of the ITCZ: rather far north and pumping out huge waves that took a while to consolidate.