Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#181 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:20 am

SFLcane wrote:


What were the numbers in May?


TS count was 13-19, iirc the H or MH count did not change
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#182 Postby ouragans » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:21 am

SFLcane wrote:


What were the numbers in May?

TS: 13-20
H: 6-10

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season
Last edited by ouragans on Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#183 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:21 am

Image

Tracks of Analog years listed in CSU's July update (1996,2001,208,2011,2017). Everyone seems to participate.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#184 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:21 am

SFLcane wrote:


What were the numbers in May?


13-20
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#185 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:22 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


What were the numbers in May?


TS count was 13-19, iirc the H or MH count did not change


Edit: the NS count's early upper limit was 20, not 19, and the H count's lower limit was upped to 7 from 6; sorry about the confusion
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#186 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:26 am

Chances for an above average season went from 60% to 65%
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#187 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:29 am

While I don't expect a 30 NS redux, I think 20 NS is quite a plausible guess, assuming activity does manage to drag on into the late season months. Hard to believe right after a season that exhausted the normal names list by a long shot that we find ourselves in the midst of another season that is forecast to be very active and possibly use up all 21 names. :double:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#188 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:40 am

We’re is the more in-depth page from NOAA?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#189 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:44 am

Remember that NOAA forecasts have underestimated storm counts at least recently. Last year, NOAA forecasted 24 storms; there were 30. In 2019, NOAA forecasted 17 storms; there were 18. In 2018, NOAA forecasted 13 storms; there were 15.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#190 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:51 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Remember that NOAA forecasts have underestimated storm counts at least recently. Last year, NOAA forecasted 24 storms; there were 30. In 2019, NOAA forecasted 17 storms; there were 18. In 2018, NOAA forecasted 13 storms; there were 15.


How do their H/MH numbers look?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#191 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:40 pm

Here's the comparison

Image
Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#192 Postby jconsor » Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:We’re is the more in-depth page from NOAA?


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cane.shtml
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA=15-21 named storms

#193 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:58 pm



The worst part is thinking about they expect a minimum of 3 major hurricanes and 0 have formed so far. I would not be surprised if at least one threatens land this season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#194 Postby SteveM » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:05 am

CSU lower numbers, 20-9-4 - > 18-8-4
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#195 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:11 am

SteveM wrote:CSU lower numbers, 20-9-4 - > 18-8-4


But calls for above normal activity over the next two weeks.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423314470957420549


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#196 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:12 am

Interesting, so CSU lowered their numbers slightly but NOAA raised them?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#197 Postby SteveM » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:15 am

I guess they lowered numbers because of the lack of storms in July. Does seem kind of odd since SSTAs and ENSO are more favourable than they were at the time of the last forecast, but I'm sure there are many other factors.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#198 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:17 am

SteveM wrote:I guess they lowered numbers because of the lack of storms in July. Does seem kind of odd since SSTAs and ENSO are more favourable than they were at the time of the last forecast, but I'm sure there are many other factors.

The MJO and SAL are why there has been no activity in July. The models saw that coming. It seems odd that the CSU would lower its numbers due to intraseasonal variation, yet NOAA increased its numbers despite intraseasonal variation.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#199 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:21 am

Either way, I think the consensus that an 18-21 NS season could be very well in the cards is definitely quite alarming. It seems like CSU lowered the numbers for this reason though:

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423313849881710593


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#200 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:24 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Interesting, so CSU lowered their numbers slightly but NOAA raised them?


I guess it’s because Noaa has a wide range.. The lowe limit of their range probably was too low so they upped the range.. CSU gives a specific number
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