Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Teban54
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#161 Postby Teban54 » Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:55 am

ouragans wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:Forecasters are generally forecasting ~20 storms. Last year, they were also forecasting ~20 storms. Potential 2020 repeat :double:

Last year at the same time, forecast was 24 storms


The 24 NS forecasts only came in August, not July.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#162 Postby ouragans » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:15 am

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#163 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:21 pm

CSU and TSR update this week.

Anyone expect any changes?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#164 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:03 pm

Both leave the same numbers.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#165 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:01 pm

NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#166 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY


This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#167 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:15 pm

I personally do not see why NOAA would lower their numbers since last issued. If anything I feel like it would be in their best interests to keep it the same or perhaps sliiiightly raise the range of hurricanes or NS (maybe by like 1 for the upper limit).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#168 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I personally do not see why NOAA would lower their numbers since last issued. If anything I feel like it would be in their best interests to keep it the same or perhaps sliiiightly raise the range of hurricanes or NS (maybe by like 1 for the upper limit).


This update for me is NOAA’s thoughts on favorability or lack thereof regarding all the main indicators we all follow so closely.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#169 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY


This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?


That will be it for 2021.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#170 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:25 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NOAA will release their August outlook tommorow at 11 AM EDT.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noa ... to7lmuGYqY


This is the one I’ve been anticipating most. I believe it’s their last as well?


As you I have been waiting for this update from NOAA. I can’t foresee them lowering there numbers if anything maybe an increase with a developing La Niña and a warming main development region. But we shall see
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#171 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:57 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#172 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:04 pm



The late In season NOAA & CSU updates are huge this year more than usual because of mostly bullish but sometimes contradictory modeling / indicators. Thankfully these two know how to incorporate climatology after modelology! A big couple days inbound.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook on Wednesday 11 AM EDT

#173 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2021 5:11 pm

And less known for the majority but TSR also will release theirs also on Thursday.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#174 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:06 am

NOAA - “Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of slowing” as oceanic and atmospheric conditions remain conducive for an above average season.

http://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlant ... of-slowing

7-10 hurricanes
3-5 majors

This includes Elsa
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#175 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:13 am

15-21 NS? Yikes
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#176 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:14 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:15-21 NS? Yikes


10 - 16 to go
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#177 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:14 am

"Above-average" could mean a lot of different things. I could mean above-average, hyperactive, or record-breaking.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#178 Postby ouragans » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:15 am

NOAA update is a little above for TS and H
TS: 15-21
H: 7-10
MH: 3-5

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlan ... of-slowing

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#179 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:18 am



What were the numbers in May?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA releases August outlook today at 11 AM EDT

#180 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:19 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:"Above-average" could mean a lot of different things. I could mean above-average, hyperactive, or record-breaking.


Not exactly sure 100%, but isn't "hyperactive" officially the highest classification a season's activity (particularly ACE-wise) could be classified as? "Record-breaking" could mean many things and is a vague term though, from NS count (2020) to ACE (1933) to H count (2005) to hurricane streak (2017, 1893 for example).
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