Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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aspen
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Crownweather Services is up

#21 Postby aspen » Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:25 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
aspen wrote:Hopefully the below-average forecast for the WCar holds. Central America really needs a break after Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota all within 6 weeks.


If I were to put any area as having less of a threat, it would be the eastern Caribbean from PR to Trinidad. It's very questionable as to whether the MDR will recover this year. It's been quite hostile for the past 3-4 seasons, leading to little in the way of significant storms in the deep tropics south of 18N.

By “significant,” I assume you mean major hurricanes. If so, then you are definitely correct, as 2018–20 has only seen MH Lorenzo (2019) in the MDR south of 18°N.

Teddy was pretty close, though. It was around the Cat 2/3 border less than a degree north of 18N. We can attribute 2020’s MDR struggles to the state of the ITCZ: rather far north and pumping out huge waves that took a while to consolidate.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Crownweather Services is up

#22 Postby wxman57 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:47 am

Shell Mound wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
aspen wrote:Hopefully the below-average forecast for the WCar holds. Central America really needs a break after Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota all within 6 weeks.


If I were to put any area as having less of a threat, it would be the eastern Caribbean from PR to Trinidad. It's very questionable as to whether the MDR will recover this year. It's been quite hostile for the past 3-4 seasons, leading to little in the way of significant storms in the deep tropics south of 18N.

By “significant,” I assume you mean major hurricanes. If so, then you are definitely correct, as 2018–20 has only seen MH Lorenzo (2019) in the MDR south of 18°N.


And Lorenzo quickly moved northward out of the MDR. Storms (hurricanes) are not surviving if they track westward into the Caribbean.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#23 Postby crownweather » Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:05 pm

Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

Their numbers:
Named Storms: 16-22
Hurricanes: 9-13
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 150-200

Landfalling Hurricanes: 3-6
Major Impact Landfalls: 2-4
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#24 Postby toad strangler » Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:53 pm

crownweather wrote:Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

Their numbers:
Named Storms: 16-22
Hurricanes: 9-13
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 150-200

Landfalling Hurricanes: 3-6
Major Impact Landfalls: 2-4


:eek: WOW :eek:
JB never disappoints :lol:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#25 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:26 pm

crownweather wrote:Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

Their numbers:
Named Storms: 16-22
Hurricanes: 9-13
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 150-200

Landfalling Hurricanes: 3-6
Major Impact Landfalls: 2-4

Talk about aggressive. The low end of WeatherBell’s is around the upper end of my forecast! Although we could get in that ACE range if this year does turn out to be much more favorable for long-trackers than 2020.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#26 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:55 am

aspen wrote:
crownweather wrote:Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

Their numbers:
Named Storms: 16-22
Hurricanes: 9-13
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 150-200

Landfalling Hurricanes: 3-6
Major Impact Landfalls: 2-4

Talk about aggressive. The low end of WeatherBell’s is around the upper end of my forecast! Although we could get in that ACE range if this year does turn out to be much more favorable for long-trackers than 2020.

Actually, the forecast suggests lower-than-average activity in the MDR vs. subtropics, and also implies more OTS tracks than we saw last year:
This suggests enhanced convergence over the western Atlantic to the East of 70°W. Since there may be a plethora of storms, some of which can break out of the pack while the main traffic jam of tracks may be off to the east, this is still a high-risk situation. However, it is not as bullish as this time last year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#27 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:59 am

crownweather wrote:Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

Their numbers:
Named Storms: 16-22
Hurricanes: 9-13
Major Hurricanes: 3-6
ACE: 150-200

Landfalling Hurricanes: 3-6
Major Impact Landfalls: 2-4


Not far from my initial numbers, except for hurricanes. I think there will be more weak, short-lived storms again. We have been averaging 6-8 weak short-lived storms per season lately, due to better detection and a more liberal naming of tropical & subtropical systems.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi is up

#28 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:48 am

Interesting,

Both Crown Weather Services (Rob Lightbrown) and Weatherbell (Joe Bastardi) have the same high risk areas.
Between NOLA and Hatteras.

On second thought isn't that typically the highest risk areas?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi is up

#29 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:12 am

Why isn't GWO (Global Weather Oscilliations) included in expert forecasts.

They claim 90% accuracy. Predicted the exact landfall of seventeen hurricanes since 2016 seven months in advance.

Can you believe it? Wow!

I have yet to see if anyone here has purchased their services. (or admit they had)

Of course each zone is $300.00, and all services are $12,000.00 (again WOW).

I did want to report that I am going to purchase my zone just to see one.

Once my check for $5,000,000.00 gets here from the Nigeran government.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi is up

#30 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:52 am

OuterBanker wrote:Why isn't GWO (Global Weather Oscilliations) included in expert forecasts.

They claim 90% accuracy. Predicted the exact landfall of seventeen hurricanes since 2016 seven months in advance.

Can you believe it? Wow!

I have yet to see if anyone here has purchased their services. (or admit they had)

Of course each zone is $300.00, and all services are $12,000.00 (again WOW).

I did want to report that I am going to purchase my zone just to see one.

Once my check for $5,000,000.00 gets here from the Nigeran government.

GWO is a scam. They edit their numbers in hindsight to make it appear as if they were right. I don't ever recall a time where they predicted a below average season.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:25 pm

We dont add GWO to the list of experts because they are never accurate.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Joe Bastardi is up

#32 Postby toad strangler » Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:09 am

OuterBanker wrote:Interesting,

Both Crown Weather Services (Rob Lightbrown) and Weatherbell (Joe Bastardi) have the same high risk areas.
Between NOLA and Hatteras.

On second thought isn't that typically the highest risk areas?


Weather Bell's impact map is last years. 2020/
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#33 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:02 am

Oh yeah, the level of falsehood rooted in GWO is just mind-boggling. I remember how their initial "prediction" for the 2020 season was 16/7/4, and we ended up getting 30/13/6. It was only after storms like Sally and Delta hit that they suddenly changed their minds and said something like "oh, we guessed where those would make landfall earlier in the season correctly." In fact, I even think they predicted the season to have a major hurricane landfall in the US in late-September, and when that did not happen they delayed this prediction to October, and then yeah, you get the point. They are so inaccurate that as the season progresses they "change their minds" and in the end claim that they guessed things right in the first place.

Oh and also they apparently can predict earthquakes, and as a person with quite a bit of seismology nerdiness in me I can assure you that earthquakes are fundamentally unpredictable.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#34 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:02 pm

GWO is not a legitimate agency by any means. They are equivalent to those weather-related clickbait YouTube channels who put their video titles in ALL CAPS AND BOLD LETTERING with thumbnails full of sensationalist text and flashy colors. Just a bunch of low-effort pseudoscientific garbage made solely for clicks.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#35 Postby Steve » Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:29 pm

crownweather wrote:Looks like WeatherBell released their forecast to the public: https://www.weatherbell.com/march-2021-hurricane-season-outlook.

...


It is an interesting forecast. European seasonals correlate to extreme ACE; an eastern move from last season (N.O. to Cape Hatteras) which would tend to indicate biggest threats for the eastern Gulf, Florida and the Bahamas and possibly the SE US.

They're calling for a lot of hurricanes and also majors possibly close to triple the average or close to the average (3-6). What's most troubling though is their landfall and major impact systems which they show 3-6 landfalling hurricanes and 2-4 major impact landfalls. Otherwise, Joe points out some of the competing forces that make for a less certain type of season than 2020 was. He thinks the La Nina or remnant shadow will be in effect so that would suggest anything from La Nina to cool-neutral ENSO to neutral where troughs split, and there is a less progressive pattern.

I'm going to take all the experts into consideration before trying to guess at the season. Noticeable to me is the super warm Atlantic. It's only the second half of March. And we've seen a lot of years with much cooler waters in the Atlantic and Gulf than what we are seeing now - only to reverse in the season (or as Wx57 noted, the peak of the seasons). Maybe this goes the other way? If the Atlantic profile stays like it is, no doubt north of the MDR would be where you'd expect storms to find their fuel. But we've still got a couple months for things to evolve to know what the MJO might want to do and how the Pacific is going to behave.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Accuweather is up

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:16 am

Accuweather is up with their forecast and have between 16-20 named storms. The link is posted on the first post list.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:17 pm

Next Thursday and Friday, two of the expected expert forecasts will be up and those are CSU and TSR. Those releases may help a little bit the members to see how they forecast the season and then participate in our S2K Poll. Stay tuned.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#38 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Next Thursday and Friday, two of the expected expert forecasts will be up and those are CSU and TSR. Those releases may help a little bit the members to see how they forecast the season and then participate in our S2K Poll. Stay tuned.

I’m looking forward to what CSU and TSR have to say, following the recent ENSO trends making a La Niña for ASO a lot less likely and an El Niño this year not as unlikely.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Crownweather Services is up

#39 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:19 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services is up with 16/8/4 and a repeat of 2017?

https://i.imgur.com/acy6hGg.png

Hopefully the below-average forecast for the WCar holds. Central America really needs a break after Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota all within 6 weeks.


The Central Gulf can use a break, too... after Cristobal, Laura*, Marco, Sally*, Beta, Delta*, and Zeta*... :wink:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#40 Postby ClarCari » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:41 pm

I’m wondering if Klotzbach is getting cold feet for this forecast after how badly his and Gray’s 2006 forecast (along of course with everybody else in the world’s) busted. :lol: Making a forecast for a season following the busiest on record is no easy task. hehe...

In all seriousness, I can’t wait to see his insight on current trends and what clues him and his team are trying to sniff out.
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