2021 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12790
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:02 pm

aspen wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:April 6th, 18z GFS

May go sub-900 at this rate! :eek:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_wpac_fh96-384.gif

18z bottomed out at 907 mbar, which is its strongest run so far and the first below 910 mbar. I haven’t seen the GFS this consistently aggressive since Hagibis and Kammuri, although only one lived up to the hype, and the other struggled its entire life. The GFS’s nuclear mode model solutions won’t get any more possible until the time frame closes in and other models also go berserk (the Euro went sub-900 for Hagibis, and Kammuri too).

I think we'll see an invest soon. The models do agree that the disturbance will start to come together within the next 72-96 hours.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18434
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#42 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:19 pm

Will be interesting if GFS's forecast holds. Ouch that would be horrible for the Marianas.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18434
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#43 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:25 pm

Image

Based on a favorable large-scale environment with the enhanced phase of the MJO crossing the West Pacific and support from model guidance, a high confidence or TC development exists over the Coral Sea during week-1. An elevated chance of TC development also is forecast across the West Pacific. Due to uncertainty on timing, a moderate confidence area covers weeks 1 and 2.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#44 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:57 am

New fantasy peak 904 mb
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレと寝取られ組み合わせ!!

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18434
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:04 am

GFS very inconsistent on track. One run misses the Marianas next thing you know it makes a beeline as of latest update.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2409
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#46 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:13 am

6z GFS, April 7th :uarrow: 904 MB peak already mentioned

Image

0z GFS, April 7th

Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 122108
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:38 am

GFS ensembles are all over the place.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12790
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#48 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:48 pm

18z GFS continues to have a much deeper vort within the next 72 hours compared to the Euro and CMC. But it's much weaker compared to its previous runs. Still eventually makes it a STY. The GFS solution allows the system to be briefly caught by a break in the ridge. Because the models are in excellent agreement that the disturbance will be quite large, it seems that any NNW/N/NNE movement past 72 hours will give the future disturbance a much better chance and time to develop.

The Euro and CMC continue to show the future disturbance taking a while to get itself going, drifting it west and not feeling any weakness and then runs out of time to rapidly deepen since it runs into land.

GFS 5 day trend:
Image

GFS fantasy:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2409
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#49 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:35 pm

Lowest Pressure

12z GFS, April 7th
911 MB
Image

18z GFS, April 7th
908 MB
Image

(Also want to mention that at the end of the run, it tries to spin off another system, if that would be named as #3, it would be Choi-wan)
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18434
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#50 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:57 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Lowest Pressure



(Also want to mention that at the end of the run, it tries to spin off another system, if that would be named as #3, it would be Choi-wan)


Image

Develops another system to the north of Choi-wan.

Koguma?
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#51 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:07 am

Latest Euro peaks it at 977 mb over the Philippines
Image
Wow :double:
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレと寝取られ組み合わせ!!

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#52 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:48 am

Latest 06Z GFS has gone wacky like it is trying to cave in to the Euro solution, but since the 00Z its solution has started to look off.
0 likes   
ヤンデレと寝取られ組み合わせ!!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2409
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#53 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:35 am

Hayabusa wrote:Latest 06Z GFS has gone wacky like it is trying to cave in to the Euro solution, but since the 00Z its solution has started to look off.


I've noticed some weirdness on the 0z Run, it looked like it was influenced by another system to it's east before bottoming out at 911 MB . . .

6z GFS is closer to the Euro model in their 0z run, lowest pressure on the 6z GFS is around 923 MB, but I don't know about the 0z run on the Euro model though . . .
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18434
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#54 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:28 am

A positive MJO passing thru the region
will enhance the formation of a low to mid-level circulation along
the near-equatorial trough. However, there is a lot of tropical
activity currently in the Southern Hemisphere near 10S from 90E
eastward to 160E. Any tropical/monsoonal disturbance that formed
north of the Equator will be competing for energy with the Southern
Hemispheric systems. This could limit the development potential of
such disturbance east of Yap. For now, kept a gradual wetting trend
for both Koror and Yap starting Sunday, despite the continuous
aggressive output by the GFS model. This situation will continue to
be monitored closely by WFO Guam.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3940
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#55 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:49 pm

12z run peaks at 917 mbar in fantasy range, but compared to the 06z run, the system begins coalescing much earlier and is at 998 mbar in 126 hrs. We should start seeing a big area of spin in a few days.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#56 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:52 pm

Latest EPS showing very strong typhoon ensembles
Image
1 likes   
ヤンデレと寝取られ組み合わせ!!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12790
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#57 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:29 pm

18z GFS caves to its daddy, the Euro.

Image

It is considerably stronger than the Euro though.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3940
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#58 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS caves to its daddy, the Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/VUluTSf.png

It is considerably stronger than the Euro though.

I’m assuming that a stronger storm will go a little more north even with a more horizontal, Euro-like track.

This run is also the fastest developing run so far. The disturbance could be classified as a TD prior to the 120 hour mark.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12790
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#59 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:02 pm

GFS has some serious ACE for the WPAC and it's only April.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3022
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#60 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:27 pm

Latest GFS run shows a scenario quite similar to Parma and Melor of 09.

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], kevin, lilbump3000, Monsoonjr99 and 30 guests