2021 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:59 pm

Image

Might see an invest soon.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#62 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:05 pm

I can now see some westerly wind flow (North of West Papua and Kapingamarangi Atoll).
Image

Time to watch the progress of the area of convection SSW of Guam
Image
Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#63 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:13 pm

Models are in good agreement that westerly winds will strengthen south of 5N by early next week.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#64 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:38 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:45 am

GFS long range confused.

00z

Image

06z

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#66 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:14 am

Looks like to-be Surigae is about to become a monster typhoon; all of that warm water and extremely high UOHC make me want to believe that at least a 175 mph typhoon is very possible
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#67 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:19 am

Long range fantasy aka GFS

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#68 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:26 pm

12z GFS :eek:

Image

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#69 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:34 pm

18z almost the same as 12z except it is further east.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#70 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:31 am

Looks like the models have backed down from any additional developments...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#71 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:31 am

GFS hinting on possible development mid to long range for several days now.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#72 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:54 am

We now have a Cat 5 180 mph super typhoon Surigae. This is the WPAC after all, arguably the most consistently favorable basin for powerful cyclones in the entire world!
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#73 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:07 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:We now have a Cat 5 180 mph super typhoon Surigae. This is the WPAC after all, arguably the most consistently favorable basin for powerful cyclones in the entire world!

It’s most likely around 165-170 kt (190-195 mph), due to being assessed as a T#8.0 by manual and automatic Dvorak fixes. If the JTWC doesn’t pull the trigger for 18z, then it’ll probably get a massive post-season upgrade like Hagibis (140 kt —> 160 kt) and Halong (155 kt —> 165 kt) got.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#74 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).

^ Props to this guy! 8-)
8 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:45 am

2021 starts off with a bang!


Surigae is the most intense April typhoon on record, as well as the most intense pre-June tropical cyclone on record in the northern hemisphere.


Another global record!
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:47 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).

^ Props to this guy! 8-)


Agreed. He said it on March 15 so kudos.
8 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:43 am

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#78 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:16 am

wxman57 wrote:The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.

It’s funny how poorly some of these posts aged when we all thought the GFS was going way too bonkers with this system. Who would’ve thought the 888 mbar Fantasy Land run would’ve correctly predicted the exact peak?
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#79 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:48 am

Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.

I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.

I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet. :eek:
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#80 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:49 am

euro6208 wrote:Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.

I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.

I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.

I don't think anything is going to beat it this year. But there definitely will be more monsters though
2 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, CyclonicFury, NotSparta, TheWisestofAll and 68 guests