2021 WPAC Season

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aspen
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#81 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:03 am

Weather Dude wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.

I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.

I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.

I don't think anything is going to beat it this year. But there definitely will be more monsters though

Guys, stop giving the tropics a challenge. It never ends well.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#82 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:19 am

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Oh man it'll be hard to beat Surigae...8.0...165 knots...IN APRIL.

I will be surprise if it finishes on top of 2021 globally. Let's see during the coming months especially during peak season.

I'm thinking the WPAC isn't done yet.

I don't think anything is going to beat it this year. But there definitely will be more monsters though

Guys, stop giving the tropics a challenge. It never ends well.

It will in time if "man made climate change" is already significant. Prepare for the possibility of the very first operational >170 knots typhoon this decade.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#83 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:20 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I don't think anything is going to beat it this year. But there definitely will be more monsters though

Guys, stop giving the tropics a challenge. It never ends well.

It will in time if "man made climate change" is already significant. Prepare for the possibility of the very first operational >170 knots typhoon this decade.

That’s gonna be really difficult without recon, since most Dvorak fixes cap out at T#8.0. It would take a lot to get a storm that actually required a T#8.5 fix, and given how conservative and slow the JTWC is, I highly doubt they would even bother going that high.

I’d say it’s more likely the next operational 175+ kt system is in the Atlantic or EPac, not the WPac.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#84 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:45 pm

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
aspen wrote:It would take a lot to get a storm that actually required a T#8.5 fix

If "man made climate change" is as they say then it's always a possibility that it would force the agencies to break the 8.0 barrier without recon. But then I guess Haiyan already set the example if you think it's more than 170 knots, which of course I think so.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#85 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:06 pm

I think agencies will naturally be more conservative in assessing TC's extreme intensities after (what I would cal) the Dvorak bust for Hurricane Eta last year. I believe raw values went up to 8.0 a few times. Thankfully the Dvorak constraints saved face.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#86 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think agencies will naturally be more conservative in assessing TC's extreme intensities after (what I would cal) the Dvorak bust for Hurricane Eta last year. I believe raw values went up to 8.0 a few times. Thankfully the Dvorak constraints saved face.

I didn't think Eta was an actual 8.0 when ADT showed it to be honest, maybe it's my bias because ADT over the Atlantic is more "lenient" so I always "subtract" when it comes to those basins, ADT was right about Patricia though despite the lacking eye temperature thanks to recon.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#87 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:25 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I think agencies will naturally be more conservative in assessing TC's extreme intensities after (what I would cal) the Dvorak bust for Hurricane Eta last year. I believe raw values went up to 8.0 a few times. Thankfully the Dvorak constraints saved face.

I didn't think Eta was an actual 8.0 when ADT showed it to be honest, maybe it's my bias because ADT over the Atlantic is more "lenient" so I always "subtract" when it comes to those basins, ADT was right about Patricia though despite the lacking eye temperature thanks to recon.

You’re right, Eta’s final ADT # never surpassed 6.7 or 6.8. However, raws got up to T#8.5. Recon confirmed that the final T# was way closer to Eta’s true intensity than the raws, but it’s possible that there will be cases of final T# being too high due to cooler upper atmosphere temperatures making a storm’s CDO far cooler than normal for its true intensity.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#88 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:28 am

GFS on the next TC development. Last 2 runs has development starting in 330-348 hours.

12z

Image

18z

Image

00z

Image

06z

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#89 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:34 am

Coincides with favorable conditions.

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#90 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:38 pm

12Z GFS develops it but 18Z is gone but that's been the case for the past runs it's on and off, or just like with the would be Surigae during fantasy long range, let's see if this is a phantom or another legit one.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#91 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:34 pm

Development in 294 hours but as Hayabusa stated, gone in the 18z update.

Starting to see some signals from EURO.

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#92 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:32 am

00Z the same as 18z then came 06Z.

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#93 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:42 am

euro6208 wrote:00Z the same as 18z then came 06Z.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/IRSKRcU.gif[url]

Models are gonna be on and off until they get a better handle on the next MJO passage over the WPAC. It's not a clear cut signal yet since there's suppressive MJO phase set to move in from the IO to the Pacific. But right now, the Euro has a suppressed MJO passage that gets out the way quickly (in and out by the first week of May), and follows it with a pretty stout active MJO phase.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#94 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:44 am

Still there on the GFS.

Weaker and doesn't start developing until it reaches the Philippine Sea.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#95 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:07 pm

12z

Image

18z

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#96 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:57 am

Those look mean. The next storm that can take advantage of these will be quite strong if the atmosphere allows it. :eek:

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#97 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:39 am

euro6208 wrote:Those look mean. The next storm that can take advantage of these will be quite strong if the atmosphere allows it. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/HBsb2ju.png
https://i.imgur.com/GYgmY55.png
https://i.imgur.com/QG1SuZ1.png
https://i.imgur.com/6RDYJT1.png
https://i.imgur.com/dcoK9Yv.jpg


Also note the Cold Water Trail left behind by Surigae . . .
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#98 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:56 pm

Is anyone able to tell me which WPAC seasons had 40+ ACE before May 1st? Which years were they? I’m trying to compare to get an ideal what this season could be like and I know it’s early and that doesn’t really have any indication of what the peak season will be like but it is nice to see how other seasons with 40+ ACE at this point ended up. I’d appreciate it a lot. Thanks.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#99 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:17 pm

rileydoxsee98 wrote:Is anyone able to tell me which WPAC seasons had 40+ ACE before May 1st? Which years were they? I’m trying to compare to get an ideal what this season could be like and I know it’s early and that doesn’t really have any indication of what the peak season will be like but it is nice to see how other seasons with 40+ ACE at this point ended up. I’d appreciate it a lot. Thanks.

Here's what I have.

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#100 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:55 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
rileydoxsee98 wrote:Is anyone able to tell me which WPAC seasons had 40+ ACE before May 1st? Which years were they? I’m trying to compare to get an ideal what this season could be like and I know it’s early and that doesn’t really have any indication of what the peak season will be like but it is nice to see how other seasons with 40+ ACE at this point ended up. I’d appreciate it a lot. Thanks.

Here's what I have.

https://i.imgur.com/TCjdLWw.png

How much ACE does Surigae have?
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