2021 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#221 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 23, 2021 7:18 pm

98W

The first of a pair up.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#222 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 6:42 am

GFS keeps pushing back the other systems into June.

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#223 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 8:06 am

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1394838993607352320




WPAC exploding. Too bad only satellite estimates?
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#224 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 8:29 am

JMA 200 hPA has Velocity Potential Anomaly which is rising air and favorable for TC development persisting through the middle part of June.

WPAC isn't done.
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon May 24, 2021 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#225 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 8:31 am

Furthermore, The MJO is currently moving through phrases 4 to 5 and into phrase 6 (WPAC) this week which may lead to additional TC development in a week. Monsoon trough very robust.

Quite bizarre the WPAC hasn't produced something during this strong MJO and KW. Maybe after?


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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#226 Postby NotoSans » Tue May 25, 2021 2:19 am

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#227 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 25, 2021 2:29 am


I have hope for the JTWC when they add guys like Levi Cowan. Signs they are changing it around.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#228 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 25, 2021 3:08 pm

98W got deactivated, models except for the Euro (but still has some EPS support) still try to develop it and a second one. How many times already since the start of May just even a named storm development has been pushed back? :roll:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#229 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 30, 2021 3:54 pm

GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:
Image
Image

CMC/Euro don't show this.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#230 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 30, 2021 7:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:
https://i.imgur.com/xSWUGFn.png
https://i.imgur.com/ueFYc0E.png

CMC/Euro don't show this.

It's fantasy but GFS has gone even more crazy on the 18Z run with 3 strong typhoons in June :double:
Image
The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover :lol:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#231 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 30, 2021 7:05 pm

CFS forecast through June 20, nothing on the Euro (yet) nor hints in the ensembles but GFS says development is within 10 days already
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#232 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 30, 2021 7:15 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:
https://i.imgur.com/xSWUGFn.png
https://i.imgur.com/ueFYc0E.png

CMC/Euro don't show this.

It's fantasy but GFS has gone even more crazy on the 18Z run with 3 strong typhoons in June :double:
https://i.imgur.com/RTF5BHC.png
The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover :lol:


Yeah that's pretty nutty from the GFS but something to keep an eye out on. Good odds for typhoon development in the next 2-3 weeks. The GFS and the Euro show a strong -VP200 anomaly over the WPAC for the first 10 days of June.

Image

Image


http://www.weathermodels.com
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#233 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 30, 2021 7:30 pm

Crazy:
Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#234 Postby mrbagyo » Mon May 31, 2021 10:51 am

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#235 Postby 404UserNotFound » Mon May 31, 2021 9:13 pm

Hayabusa wrote:The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover :lol:

PLEASE tell me that someone has these runs saved! Since we haven't seen the real thing yet, a model run is the best we'll get right now for seeing an equatorial crossover.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#236 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:04 am

404UserNotFound wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover :lol:

PLEASE tell me that someone has these runs saved! Since we haven't seen the real thing yet, a model run is the best we'll get right now for seeing an equatorial crossover.

Here from page 1
Hayabusa wrote:Now this is a fantasy I would love to see :lol:
https://i.imgur.com/M84cVYa.gif

I wish I saved its weathernerds graphic cause you can customize the view, I would've saved it by showing both north/south of equator
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#237 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:50 pm

Looks like the Mei-yu is getting ready to crank up.

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#238 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:03 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like the Mei-yu is getting ready to crank up.

https://i.imgur.com/RQcebv7.gif



Taiwan would love that
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#239 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:32 pm

JTWC and JMA forecast errors for each storm so far this young season.

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Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#240 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:49 pm

Euro ensemble in recent runs is showing development east of the Philippines but nothing in operational run (yet) only showing low vorticity and GFS (as usual) has since backed off for a significant typhoon development but is still developing a TC.
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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