2021 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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2021 WPAC Season

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Dec 25, 2020 1:24 am

Goni was the strongest October typhoon in 1 min wind since the 1970 beating 165 knot Tip. I wouldn't be surprised if another 170 knot typhoon forms in 2021. If that happens the 2020's decade would tie with the 2010's decade for the most 170 knot typhoons (Haiyan, Meranti, Goni, ???) since the 1970, not to mention there were no reliable 170 knot typhoons until the 2010's. I wouldn't be surprised too if the first ever operational/post-analysis greater than 170 knot typhoon forms this decade overall in the satellite era.



Unless there is a last minute named storm in 2020 these are the 2021 names from wikipedia


Dujuan (unused)
Surigae (unused)
Choi-wan (unused)
Koguma (unused)
Champi (unused)
In-fa (unused)
Cempaka (unused)
Nepartak (unused)
Lupit (unused)
Mirinae (unused)
Nida (unused)
Omais (unused)
Conson (unused)
Chanthu (unused)
Dianmu (unused)
Mindulle (unused)
Lionrock (unused)
Kompasu (unused)
Namtheun (unused)
Malou (unused)
Nyatoh (unused)
Rai (unused)
Malakas (unused)
Megi (unused)
Chaba (unused)
Aere (unused)
Songda (unused)
Trases (unused)


Just like 2020 there are pretty big names in the list. Well what do you think 2021 would bring in the Northwestern Pacific? Happy holidays.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#2 Postby aspen » Fri Dec 25, 2020 11:34 am

Nepartek really should have been retired after the 2016 season. A monster Cat 5 with a multi-billion dollar damage total...it’s practically begging for retirement. I’ll bet that Nepartek ‘21 will be a weak slop system, similar to Nuri ‘20 vs Nuri ‘14.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#3 Postby GSBHurricane » Fri Dec 25, 2020 2:43 pm

aspen wrote:Nepartek really should have been retired after the 2016 season. A monster Cat 5 with a multi-billion dollar damage total...it’s practically begging for retirement. I’ll bet that Nepartek ‘21 will be a weak slop system, similar to Nuri ‘20 vs Nuri ‘14.

I think it was because it was overshadowed by Meranti in China later that year. I could be wrong.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#4 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Dec 25, 2020 3:03 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:Nepartek really should have been retired after the 2016 season. A monster Cat 5 with a multi-billion dollar damage total...it’s practically begging for retirement. I’ll bet that Nepartek ‘21 will be a weak slop system, similar to Nuri ‘20 vs Nuri ‘14.

I think it was because it was overshadowed by Meranti in China later that year. I could be wrong.

Unfortunately, the WPAC region tends to not retire systems that are particularly impactful in Taiwan if they also do not go on to affect a different area due to the complicated geopolitical issue of the island. Since Taiwan does not have an official representative at the WMO, and China often chooses to ignore systems that cause great impact on the island, this leads to storms like Nepartek not getting retired, even though they're systems that would be worthy of retirement had they impacted an island of Japan or the Philippines instead. It's a crappy situation.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 26, 2020 4:41 am

Probably another slow, below-average season just like past ones preceded by a moderate-strong La Nina.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:06 pm

Levi Cowan creator of Tropical Tidbits now works for the JTWC. Finally, I can't wait for prognostic reasoning and fixes from him on WPAC storms
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1344818178984067073


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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:05 am

Hayabusa wrote:Levi Cowan creator of Tropical Tidbits now works for the JTWC. Finally, I can't wait for prognostic reasoning and fixes from him on WPAC storms
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1344818178984067073

I'd love to meet him if he's in Honolulu lol. JTWC forecasts about to finally catch up to the 21st century standards.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:08 am

90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:58 pm

Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:18 am

Kinda late but EURO and GFS has very low pressures commencing at the end of this month and into April.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:07 am

Now this is a fantasy I would love to see :lol:
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#12 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:09 am

Hayabusa wrote:I wouldn't be surprised too if the first ever operational/post-analysis greater than 170 knot typhoon forms this decade overall in the satellite era.

JTWC has an irrational fear of analyzing storms as being stronger than 170kts. Just goes to show how useful recon is.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:90 days CFS for the past month shows a substantial WWB originating in the WPAC, that kicks off during the first week of April. My money is that we'll see the first Super Typhoon of the 2021 season in April-- if this materializes (big if!).

12z GFS 10 day:
Image
Fantasy:
Image
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:16 am

Strongest run yet. I haven't seen this pressure so low for a fantasy storm since Hagibis and that was October! :double:
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:34 am

Starting to buy in some on the possibility of a TC developing maybe 10 days from now with help from a widely modeled westerly wind burst. I'm skeptical it'll be intense like some of the GFS depictions, but it might be something worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:38 pm

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:41 pm

EPS is slowly getting on board.

Image

www.weathermodels.com
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:19 am

Strongest run yet again 910 mb :double:
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#19 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:33 am

Phantom model storm watching is so fun. LOL (not fun though if that :uarrow: actually happens - that's like adding too much salt and lemon to our covid injury here in PH)
I prefer a oceanic fish storm
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:49 am

00z Canadian now actually develops the GFS system:
Image
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