2021 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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2021 EPAC Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:18 am

Let's see how this season unfolds as ENSO will be a key factor for activity to be plenty or not.

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Pamela
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda


https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/cp.php

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https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:30 pm

Unless we can slip into warm neutral it will be probably be a slow season compared to the prime 2014-2018 era.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unless we can slip into warm neutral it will be probably be a slow season compared to the prime 2014-2018 era.


Agreed. ENSO will be the main driver to what may occur on the season.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:41 am

My numbers for this EPAC 2021 season are 16/6/2.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#5 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:52 am

I like those numbers Cycloneye because a slight La nina or a cool ENSO neutral would result in that. I am going to go 16/6/2 as well. 95-120ACE
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#6 Postby Chris90 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:01 am

I'm keeping in mind that last year even with a record setting Atlantic, the Pacific managed to go 17/4/3. Also, ENSO has been showing some similarities with 2011, and the Pacific went 11/10/6 that year. I think some of the professionals might be a little bullish on the ATL this year based on what happened last year and some expecting a double dip Niña and another hyperactive ATL. I think the ATL has a decent chance at being average to above average this year, but I'm not expecting the Pacific to be as suppressed this year, and I think it's going to take back some of the energy from the ATL.

I'm going 17/11/5 for my Pacific numbers at this time. I think we might be reaching warm neutral levels at some point during the N. Hemisphere summer, and the Pacific has a longer overall season than the ATL does. If the Pacific has a good July and August numbers wise with some number fluffing storms in June (maybe even pull off a major), even if La Niña returns and the ATL cranks up during ASO, the Pacific can pull off some respectable numbers.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#7 Postby ClarCari » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:48 am

Keep in mind that the ENSO plays a much larger role on EPAC activity than the Atlantic, which makes sense since the ENSO is literally in the Pacific (whereas the Atlantic can counteract a warm ENSO with higher SST’s and less SAL such as we saw with 2018-2019).

I highly doubt the ENSO stays warm through the peak of this EPAC’s hurricane season (and the Atlantic’s), so I think activity will be similarly slow like last year with some difference here or there.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:44 pm

Let's have a mini poll here about the names you think will be the best cyclones. I will take Guillermo (Cat 4) and again another monster Linda (Cat 3) but not as strong as the Linda 1997 one with 185 mph.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let's have a mini poll here about the names you think will be the best cyclones. I will take Guillermo (Cat 4) and again another monster Linda (Cat 3) but not as strong as the Linda 1997 one with 185 mph.


If we go with a brief ENSO warming phase through July, followed by a resurgent La Nina in ASO as the CFS currently predicts, I would choose Felicia and Guillermo as having the best shots of being the strongest systems of the season before the EPAC shuts down.

If we go with the March Euro seasonal forecast of warm-neutral ENSO persisting the entire hurricane season, then it will be something like Jimena early on, followed up by Pamela, Sandra and Rick.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:24 pm

Kingarabian I see plenty of noise for a warming Pacific in the past few days and if it continues, the season may be more active than we thought earlier.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#11 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Let's have a mini poll here about the names you think will be the best cyclones. I will take Guillermo (Cat 4) and again another monster Linda (Cat 3) but not as strong as the Linda 1997 one with 185 mph.


If we go with a brief ENSO warming phase through July, followed by a resurgent La Nina in ASO as the CFS currently predicts, I would choose Felicia and Guillermo as having the best shots of being the strongest systems of the season before the EPAC shuts down.

If we go with the March Euro seasonal forecast of warm-neutral ENSO persisting the entire hurricane season, then it will be something like Jimena early on, followed up by Pamela, Sandra and Rick.

Pamela is going to have a lot to live up to. I hope it’s a long-tracking open ocean Cat 4 or 5 that is fun to track, stays well away from land, and isn’t a pathetic first use of the replacement name for one of the strongest storms ever seen.

With the chances of a full-blown La Niña for ASO dropping as fast as Patricia’s pressure on the night of its peak, we probably won’t see as much of a slop season as 2020. While it did have a trio of Cat 4s, both Genevieve and Marie struggled and/or failed to truly live up to model and environmental potential, and it had a lot of extremely weak slop storms lasting just 48 hours or less. A neutral ENSO through the end of the season would give the EPac the opportunity to be decently active, and we’ll probably get to or past Pamela on this year’s list; the EPac still got to Polo despite a La Niña.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:14 pm

All I need is a Category 4 or 5 fish storm named Kevin so the Home Alone jokes come in
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#13 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:22 am

Kinda torn as to what to make of the EPAC this year...on one hand ENSO should generally be more favorable as I would imagine shear wouldn't be as crippling during ENSO neutral as it would be with a moderate La Niña episode like last year, but on the other hand the cooler waters thanks to the negative PDO/NPMM tandem could put a lid on things once again (should it persist). Last year had a slightly above average NS count but an abysmal ratio (just 4 of the 17 NS became hurricanes), so perhaps a more quality-laden season this year with a slightly lower storm count? I mean I'd take that any day over slop spam like last year (same goes for the Atlantic).
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:27 pm

There is a good deal of rainy weather in CentralAmerica so the question is if anything here may turn into something more?

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#15 Postby ClarCari » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:There is a good deal of rainy weather in CentralAmerica so the question is if anything here may turn into something more?

https://i.imgur.com/kGepzwC.jpg

Wind Shear is quite favorable in that area and SST’s are plenty warm. We’ll see I suppose. Another early start to another potentially slow season maybe. :lol:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:55 am

cycloneye wrote:There is a good deal of rainy weather in CentralAmerica so the question is if anything here may turn into something more?

https://i.imgur.com/kGepzwC.jpg


Possible, but I doubt it considering the lack of model support. Models actually setup a 2 week period of decent westerly anomalies over the EPAC though.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#17 Postby ClarCari » Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:09 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:There is a good deal of rainy weather in CentralAmerica so the question is if anything here may turn into something more?

https://i.imgur.com/kGepzwC.jpg


Possible, but I doubt it considering the lack of model support. Models actually setup a 2 week period of decent westerly anomalies over the EPAC though.

I was curious if there was anything that could induce early (albeit weak) TC activity in the EPAC. I actually had a suspicion TD 1 One-E/Andrés would form maybe sooner or around a similar time as Ana (I predict Ana to be pre-June). IDK if it’s from an MJO or the westerlies you mentioned or one or the other. Of course mostly meteorological gut, but that EPAC has been here or there with the earliest activity the past few years.
If there was early EPAC activity, I’d definitely expect it around the Costa Rica/Panama region considering the persistent favorable conditions that area. Just need the right area of disturbance. Depending on the troughs and other weather patterns, I even wonder if an EPAC to ATL crossover system is possible in the early season sort of like Amanda to Cristobal last year.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:46 pm

No model support AFAIK. :uarrow:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:06 pm

Vertical instability has been below average, SST's are easily the coldest since 2013 (but with La Nina fading, this isn't quite the negative one may think), PDO looks fairly negative, and wind shear is slightly below average. Not exactly the best of conditions and a repeat of 2020 is probably the most likely outcome at this point as I'm skeptical that we'll spend serious time in warm neutral or El Nino. But it's possible a continued departure from the La Nina could make the conditions aloft more conducive (see 1985, 1989, 2001, 2011, 2012 as examples of this to some extent).
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