2021 EPAC Season

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#961 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:43 pm

Image

September 25 onwards is when the corner turns.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#962 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:27 pm

I really hope there is a recurve system that could bring rain for my area whitout making landfall in a populous region and without causing major damage, it's September and so far the year have been dry for me, its not funny when the city has water deficit. The Atlantic doesn't seem to be able to send a system near me and with the time to do it closing (as we near October), EPAC is my last hope
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#963 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:00 am

The fact the GFS and ECMWF are completely dead despite an incoming CCKW is somewhat alarming. Yes, meteorology!=modelology but it seems the base state has become much less favorable than the reasonably impressive start of the season. Then again this happens on occasion when MJO gets stuck over the IO for a while and I’m not yet quite sure why.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#964 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:47 am

Image

Ok that's something I suppose though really far west. Environment doesn't look too favorable with no ULAC present however.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#965 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:48 am

:uarrow: Euro been showing it for the past 4 runs. Never really gets going. But maybe if there's a strong enough ridge it'll be possible.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#966 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:41 pm

18z GFS now developing it:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#967 Postby zzh » Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:25 pm

TXPN22 KNES 180009
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 17/2330Z

C. 11.1N

D. 175.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS OBSERVED A DEFINED LLCC AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WAS
OBSERVED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

Image
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#968 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:19 pm

:uarrow: it's been looking good. JTWC will take care of it but no mention from the CPHC.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#969 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:40 pm

0z GFS weaker because it moves the vorticity north but honestly this is a good upper environment.

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#970 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:20 am

TXPN22 KNES 180603
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/0530Z

C. 10.1N

D. 176.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE CSC WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#971 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:59 am

0z ECMWF doesn’t have it FWIW.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#972 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:31 pm

TXPN22 KNES 181210
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/1130Z

C. 10.0N

D. 177.6W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD NOT BE FOUND. POSITION BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AGREES WHILE PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT PREVENT
LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#973 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:47 pm

TXPN22 KNES 181818
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/1730Z

C. 10.0N

D. 178.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.0 BY DEFAULT. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT
PREVENT LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#974 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:35 pm

12z GFS barely develops the system
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#975 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:01 pm

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible while it moves
generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#976 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:08 pm

Image

18z GFS shows something.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#977 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:09 pm

TXPN22 KNES 182356
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/2330Z

C. 10.0N

D. 179.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND A CSC THAT IS
NOW POORLY DEFINED. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE
TO A LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND NO CLEAR CSC OBSERVED IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#978 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:50 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while
it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#979 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:51 am

Despite 2 passing CCKWS 0z ECMWF shows zlich,
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#980 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:05 pm

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while
it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the
latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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