2021 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#981 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:40 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
within the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle and latter
parts of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#982 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 19, 2021 7:43 pm

18z GFS drops this.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#983 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:29 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
within the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle and latter
parts of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#984 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:46 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be somewhat conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of this
week while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By late Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters,
which will likely inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#985 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 6:55 am

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be somewhat conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
cyclone could form in 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, however, the system
is forecast to move over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment, which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#986 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:39 am

077
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is forecast to move over cooler waters and into an
environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds this weekend,
which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#987 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:52 pm

339
ABPZ20 KNHC 221745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system during the next day or two, if any, is
likely to be slow. After that time, this system is forecast to move
into an environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds,
which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#988 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:47 am

Eyeball test says there's a case for +PMM now. But -ENSO/-PDO looks to be shutting down the season very early.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#989 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:Eyeball test says there's a case for +PMM now. But -ENSO/-PDO looks to be shutting down the season very early.


We need MJO over Central America or at least a very strong CCKW as otherwise we are set for a historically front heavy season. Base state becoming increasingly hostile due to climo alone and the fact MJO seems stuck over the IO. We def aren't at +PMM yet as there's a clear cold tongue from Southern California southwest to Hawaii but +PMM is probably to be expected given the Nina but at this point has a larger role in determining next year's season than this.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#990 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:44 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity remains disorganized in association with an
elongated area of low pressure located almost 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system is moving over cool waters and into an
environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds, and
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#991 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:10 am

306
ACPN50 PHFO 240531
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Sep 23 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for development over the next couple of days, with
the low moving northwest into an area even less favorable for
development this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blood
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#992 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:49 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Eyeball test says there's a case for +PMM now. But -ENSO/-PDO looks to be shutting down the season very early.


We need MJO over Central America or at least a very strong CCKW as otherwise we are set for a historically front heavy season. Base state becoming increasingly hostile due to climo alone and the fact MJO seems stuck over the IO. We def aren't at +PMM yet as there's a clear cold tongue from Southern California southwest to Hawaii but +PMM is probably to be expected given the Nina but at this point has a larger role in determining next year's season than this.


Kinda hard to draw the line on where the PDO cuts off and where it becomes more PMM. But it looks like there's been consistent warming in the regions in red, while that blue circle seems to be stubborn and cool due to a resurgent -PDO.

Image
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#993 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:04 pm

Image

Image

GFS has a Gulf of California hurricane and a long tracker in the medium range.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#994 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Eyeball test says there's a case for +PMM now. But -ENSO/-PDO looks to be shutting down the season very early.


We need MJO over Central America or at least a very strong CCKW as otherwise we are set for a historically front heavy season. Base state becoming increasingly hostile due to climo alone and the fact MJO seems stuck over the IO. We def aren't at +PMM yet as there's a clear cold tongue from Southern California southwest to Hawaii but +PMM is probably to be expected given the Nina but at this point has a larger role in determining next year's season than this.


Kinda hard to draw the line on where the PDO cuts off and where it becomes more PMM. But it looks like there's been consistent warming in the regions in red, while that blue circle seems to be stubborn and cool due to a resurgent -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/oTNgzRt.png


Negative area is the PMM. PDO is the difference between the horseshoe from the Gulf of Alaska down to the southern extent of the California Current compared to the mid latitudes of the CPAC.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#995 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:08 pm

703
ABPZ20 KNHC 262318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for slow development by
midweek while the systems moves slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#996 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 27, 2021 1:22 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this
system during the latter parts of the week while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward, remaining well offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#997 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:57 am

I was going to say the GFS is all alone in showing tropical development in EPAC but then I remember how horrible the Euro has been at times, even the CMC has been too conservative.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#998 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:53 pm

A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development of this system during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of
the week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward well
offshore of the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#999 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:10 am

Last two GFS runs less enthusiastic on development.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1000 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:14 pm

GFS and ECMWF show nothing next 16 and 10 days. Non-zero chance that the season is over.
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