2021 EPAC Season

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Ubuntwo
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1121 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:43 pm

GFS has been on and off with a tropical wave developing in the eastern Pacific.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1122 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:45 pm

:uarrow: Looks phantom at least at the rate that it shows development. GFS is probably overdoing the vorticity as the wave axis interacts with Central America, leading to rapid TC genesis offshore.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1123 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:00 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:GFS has been on and off with a tropical wave developing in the eastern Pacific.
https://imgur.com/hHkTtQE

Normally would favor WCaribbean development here.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1124 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:GFS has been on and off with a tropical wave developing in the eastern Pacific.
https://imgur.com/hHkTtQE

Normally would favor WCaribbean development here.


With all that troughing over the southern US, hard to get anything substantial in the WCaribbean and the wave axis never reaches that high of a latitude anyway.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1125 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:03 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Looks phantom at least at the rate that it shows development. GFS is probably overdoing the vorticity as the wave axis interacts with Central America, leading to rapid TC genesis offshore.

0z GFS has slower development with the wave but runs into a better environment later down the road:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1126 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:03 pm

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1127 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:09 pm

Image

12z GFS.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1128 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:33 pm

18z GFS and GEFS ensembles somehow think that a hurricane on November 7th during a La Niña is a perfectly reasonable solution. It’s also around the area where the GFS has failed miserably to predict the impact of shear on systems trying to intensify there (Guillermo, Kevin, and Pamela), so if it does form it probably won’t break 995.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1129 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 31, 2021 8:18 pm

Even the 18z GFS only brings it down to 991 mbar.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1130 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 01, 2021 12:47 am

Had some late season systems in -ENSO years.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1131 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 01, 2021 12:32 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Nov 1 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week, several
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow
develop of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1132 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 02, 2021 3:32 pm

202
ABPZ20 KNHC 021727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located inland over Costa Rica is forecast
to move across Central America through tonight, producing locally
heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
and Panama, which could result in flooding and mudslides. The system
is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Pacific waters on
Wednesday, and some slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1133 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:51 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Nov 2 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over Costa Rica is
forecast to emerge over the far eastern Pacific waters on Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form well south or
southeast of the coast of southeastern Mexico late this week or this
weekend. Regardless of development, the system is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through Wednesday, which could
result in flooding and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph well to the south of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1134 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:50 am

The replacement satellite of GOES-17 will be up next year.

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1458470523726450689


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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1135 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:21 am

Pretty forgettable season all in all though given the background state it probably could have been worse. Linda and Felicia were definitely cool though and a record four (IMO five) hurricanes hit Mexico this year.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1136 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:50 pm

Could've been another 2010 or something like 2019/2020 considering the La Nina. Instead we got a bunch of Mexico activity, some annular long trackers, and some CPHC drama. Exceeded my expectations.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#1137 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:42 pm

Hawaii right now:
Image

Image

You can see why systems coming from the east don't do much with those strong upper level westerlies in place, while systems south of the islands can easily dump historic rain.
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