2021 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#881 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:46 pm

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#882 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 17, 2021 9:15 pm

Ah ya, today's 18z GFS has 4 named storms, 3 of them hurricanes lol
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#883 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:24 am

00z EPS:
Image

Circle soon.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#884 Postby Astromanía » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Ah ya, today's 18z GFS has 4 named storms, 3 of them hurricanes lol

Ah ya, jajaja
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#885 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:14 pm

The NHC has highlighted an area of potential development in the East Pacific, which is really just the future remnants of Grace.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#886 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:21 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located about 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. Hurricane Grace, located over the Caribbean Sea, is forecast to
move inland over mainland Mexico early Saturday morning and
dissipate over Mexico on Sunday. However, the remnants are expected
to continue westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, and an area
of low pressure could form by early next week off the coast of
southwest Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development thereafter while the low moves
westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#887 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:39 pm

The 30-day SOI indicates ENSO-neutral, not a La Nina.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#888 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:42 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:The 30-day SOI indicates ENSO-neutral, not a La Nina.

ENSO cool neutral.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#889 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:The 30-day SOI indicates ENSO-neutral, not a La Nina.

ENSO cool neutral.


That's a bad setup if you are wanting a quiet Atlantic at peak-season generally.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#890 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:08 am

Image

Image

0z GFS and 12z ECMWF showing Grace crossing over and regenerating plus 1 more storm.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#891 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:08 pm

Tropical Storm Grace, located over the Yucatan Peninsula,
is forecast to move inland over mainland Mexico Friday night and
dissipate over Mexico by late Saturday. However, Grace's remnants
are expected to continue westward and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico early Sunday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#892 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:14 am

Hurricane Grace, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is
forecast to move inland over mainland Mexico by early Saturday
morning and dissipate over Mexico by early Sunday. However, Grace's
remnants are expected to continue moving westward and emerge over
the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico early
Sunday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to
15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#893 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:39 pm

Hurricane Grace, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is
forecast to move inland over mainland Mexico tonight and dissipate
over Mexico by early Sunday. However, Grace's remnants are expected
to continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific
Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico early Sunday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#894 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:17 am

12z ECMWF brings up to Olaf by day 10.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#895 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:17 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Hurricane Grace located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near
the coast of mainland Mexico is forecast to dissipate over inland
Mexico by early Sunday. However, Grace's remnants are expected to
continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean
off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#896 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:47 am

Yellow Evan wrote:12z ECMWF brings up to Olaf by day 10.



Ana, Elsa, and Olaf? :lol:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#897 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:13 pm

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#898 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:50 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Tropical Storm Grace, located over east-central Mexico, is
forecast to dissipate over Mexico by early Sunday. However,
Grace's remnants are expected to continue moving westward
and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast
of Mexico by Sunday afternoon. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#899 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:43 pm

12z GFS basically has an Ingrid/Manuel redux. 12z ECMWF favors the Atlantic more.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#900 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:49 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:12z GFS basically has an Ingrid/Manuel redux. 12z ECMWF favors the Atlantic more.

Terrible flashbacks :double:
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