2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Uhh if this materializes we might get 20 named storms with no problem after all is said and done.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

[Kingarabian]

If this Euro track verifies for the 0/60, we could see some good ACE. This next round of activity could take us above 100 ACE.

The 0/60 should have much higher odds IMO.

00z EPS has three bonafide systems in the next 4 days:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The remnants of Grace, located over central Mexico, are expected to
continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean
off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shows 2 storms spawned from the CAG.

[Kingarabian]

Up to five systems on the 00z GFS. Three on the CMC.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF just has this behind 94E and 0/60.

[Yellow Evan]

August 26-September 1 is prime and maybe again later in the month while Atlantic goes full 2017.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by mid-week. The system is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[AlphaToOmega]

The 30-day SOI seems to be in full-on La Nada territory.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
22 Aug 2021 1014.99 1012.80 3.46 3.91 5.28
21 Aug 2021 1016.24 1012.80 11.05 4.39 5.16
20 Aug 2021 1016.33 1012.45 13.72 4.58 5.11
19 Aug 2021 1014.74 1011.65 8.92 4.41 4.97
18 Aug 2021 1013.41 1012.40 -3.70 4.41 4.88
17 Aug 2021 1015.49 1014.00 -0.79 4.83 5.02
16 Aug 2021 1016.52 1014.25 3.94 5.43 5.09
15 Aug 2021 1014.80 1013.10 0.49 6.31 5.03
14 Aug 2021 1013.90 1013.05 -4.67 7.40 5.14
13 Aug 2021 1016.02 1013.85 3.34 8.82 5.44
12 Aug 2021 1017.38 1014.75 6.13 9.58 5.69
11 Aug 2021 1018.11 1014.80 10.26 10.21 5.81
10 Aug 2021 1018.19 1013.65 17.72 10.45 5.79
9 Aug 2021 1017.38 1015.05 4.31 10.35 5.66
8 Aug 2021 1017.20 1015.95 -2.25 10.77 5.71
7 Aug 2021 1016.96 1016.80 -8.86 11.34 5.82
6 Aug 2021 1015.35 1016.70 -18.03 12.01 5.97
5 Aug 2021 1013.99 1015.40 -18.39 12.99 6.29
4 Aug 2021 1014.71 1014.80 -10.38 13.71 6.74
3 Aug 2021 1015.95 1013.20 6.86 14.09 7.22
2 Aug 2021 1015.08 1012.65 4.92 14.37 7.43
1 Aug 2021 1014.46 1013.10 -1.58 14.84 7.46
31 Jul 2021 1015.39 1013.30 7.02 15.75 7.34
30 Jul 2021 1015.98 1012.90 13.11 16.57 7.03
29 Jul 2021 1015.56 1012.60 12.37 16.49 6.73
28 Jul 2021 1014.67 1013.55 1.05 16.10 6.53
27 Jul 2021 1015.59 1012.90 10.71 15.86 6.58
26 Jul 2021 1016.52 1013.20 14.59 15.32 6.57
25 Jul 2021 1016.49 1012.95 15.94 15.03 6.47
24 Jul 2021 1016.48 1012.90 16.19 14.85 6.34

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS/ECMWF and 18z GFS confuse me in what the NHC is trying to develop. There’s almost no convection where the NHC has marked an X.

[Yellow Evan]

2. An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico while the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather centered less than 200 miles south of
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week. The disturbance is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico through this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Astromanía]

Gfs, Icon and Navgem are bullish with this one, cat 2-3
Euro and Cmc make this a cat 1
Maybe our third major of the season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS develops the 50/90.



Brings this to 962 mbars off the coast of Baja California Sur.



Moves this onshore Baja California Norte.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF is further west, but now also trending stronger.



Also develops a system behind it that moves into Guerrero.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of
Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brings this 960 mbar but doesn't bring the LLC into northern Baja/SW US.

[SoupBone]

Doesn't the EPAC typically putter out by this time in the season? Seems to be going strong still.