2021 EPAC Season

[Teban54]

GFS and ECMWF show nothing next 16 and 10 days. Non-zero chance that the season is over.

What's the record for the earliest finish for an EPac season?

[Yellow Evan]

This looks somewhat favorable although more so on the other side of Central America yet the ECMWF especially continues to insist on nothing.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 28 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have changed little in organization since this time
yesterday. The low is forecast to move slowly toward the
west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico, and
environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of
this system before upper-level winds become less conducive on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions have become less conducive for development,
and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. The
low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico
today, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph
away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development during the next several days while the system moves
generally westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are gradually becoming
less conducive for development. The low is forecast to meander off
the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move
slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast
of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Graveyard out there

[aspen]

Maybe the EPac wants to save Pamela for an active season so it could become a major and a better successor to Patricia than whatever this pathetic season can pump out.

[Yellow Evan]

In the short term, we have MJO nearby but offset by a very suppressed Kelvin Wave currently moving through, leading to +VP anomalies over the main area of formation this time of year. We need MJO to continue to propagate, and a passing CCKW to coincide. We’re still a week or two out from that potentially happening. There have been some hints (such as these two AOI’s) of a start of an uptick but remember activity west of 115-120W is going to be hard at this point in the year, so we need the conditions to propagate more eastward. If the MJO passes and we get nothing, the season is officially over and the next Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone will form in the late spring of 2022.

[Yellow Evan]

647
ABPZ20 KNHC 292348
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for development. The low is forecast to meander off
the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move
slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast
of Mexico on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Yellow Evan]

812
ABPZ20 KNHC 301144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 30 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
or early next week while the system moves generally westward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is
possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS showing a hurricane in the medium range. Consistent with CCKW/MJO timing.

[DioBrando]

Just imagine if this season had the earliest end on record and the next storm is named Agatha and not Pamela

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS slams into Jalisco.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/894382058187673610/image0.png

18z GFS slams into Jalisco.

Pamela copying its predecessor on that run it seems.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1444864025544863749

[aspen]

The GFS really wants Pamela to be a Patricia repeat, at least in terms of its track.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1445133345940193295

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1445133345940193295?s=21

We might see activity on both sides of Central America with an MJO/CCKW that strong, although climo and ENSO state would favor the Atlantic, especially as the atmosphere slowly transitions to a more Nina-like state.

Also, off-topic, but one of the guys in the comments has STS Teresa as his profile pic lol. There are like so many better storms to use instead of Teresa.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 4 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a few days. Gradual development of the system will be
possible beginning late this week or early this weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

Considering the positioning of the CCKW/MJO, I think the GFS is overdoing the vortex’s ability to fight off shear and create its own environment like it typically is. ECMWF is probably more accurate here.