EPAC Early kickstart AGAIN??
2021 EPAC Season
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
EPAC Early kickstart AGAIN??
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Yellow Evan
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
EPAC Early kickstart AGAIN??
It’s the CMC.
Crazy Canadian model is showing itself as crazy . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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AnnularCane
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
I think the models seem to show something in the EPAC every year around this time? At least that is what my memory is saying. 
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
EPAC Early kickstart AGAIN??
It’s the CMC.
I don't believe it yet but the CMC has been considerably better in the past few years. Let's see if it can get a pre-season victory.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
GFS has two different developments on medium to long range.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
After last year, worthy of keeping an eye on but with MJO leaving I’m skeptical.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
And just like that, GFS had two at 06z but at 12z nothing.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
I figured one of these successive MJOs were going to seep into the EPAC sooner rather than later. In this case the GFS may get it somewhat right, though I think any system may be more likely to form close to land.
Reminder that Adrian in 2017 was the earliest EPAC named storm on May 10th.
Reminder that Adrian in 2017 was the earliest EPAC named storm on May 10th.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
GFS and CMC have a TC in the 7-10 day range. Looks like a legit possibility. Could be a decent hurricane or a disorganized and sheared TD.
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Dylan
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Potential for 3 systems on the GFS but we'll likely only see one.
CMC showing 2 possible TC's:
CMC showing 2 possible TC's:
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
The disturbance that the models have been on and off about is looking very robust tonight.
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Model support is increasing for a potential preseason system headed into the weekend. We'll see if the NHC takes note soon.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
00z Euro and CMC don't make it anything more than a TD while the 00z GFS has a Cat.1 cane. Signal is there. Tomorrow evening I think the NHC will talk about it.
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Nancy Smar
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Looking ahead for southern Mexico, a limited
fresh to strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may
occur on Fri related to low pressure farther south into the
tropical waters. The low pressure may bring increased winds and
seas to the waters off Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and Sat.
fresh to strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may
occur on Fri related to low pressure farther south into the
tropical waters. The low pressure may bring increased winds and
seas to the waters off Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and Sat.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
The GFS is very interested in the idea that we could potentially see TS Andres quite soon.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Bom's global model atm thinking of a TD. The model is much the same as the unified ukmets.
Only takes a slight drop in the mid-level humidity for a miss calculation in that perimeter (x). For a system to intensify more than expected by the models.
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18z EC run
..Forecast model: ECMWF 9km
Provider: ECMWF
Updated 2h 0m ago (ref 18Z)
Next update expected at: 04:46 PM, in 4h 59m 3s
Update interval: 6 - 7 hrs
Reference time: 2021-05-04T18:00:00Z
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18z Global USA model run.
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https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/fwcn.ht ... l_cpc.html
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