Shell Mound wrote:ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.
Source
A favorable WPac doesn’t automatically mean the Atlantic will be unfavorable.
Take 2018 for an example. It was a warm-neutral/weak Niño year, and the Pacific on both sides was an absolute beast. The EPac pumped out 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5s, and over 300 ACE; the WPac saw a Cat 4 Super Typhoon in April and a nearly constant stream of Category 5s from September through October, so much so that it was almost too much for the basin to handle (Trami left a massive cold wake that significantly weaker Kong-Rey). And despite a very favorable Pacific, the Atlantic still had an above-average season with two storms causing roughly $50 billion total in damages, one of which was the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew.
So ENSO and Pacific base states are only part of the story. It’s been mentioned multiple times that the strong WAM of the last several years has helped offset the potentially negative impact of a generally warm ENSO. That was the case in 2018, and that’ll likely be the case this year too. Also, the SST configuration in March-April 2018 was WAY less favorable looking than that of the same time frame this year. If 2018 could become an active year with all of those cards stacked against it, then 2021 has a decent shot too.