2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

While I am not going to hype or jump to conclusions, I am beginning to wonder if this season has the potential to defy expectations and actually make it to Adria or so forth. Especially with the lack of El Nino beginning to look likely as well as a predicted vigorous WAM and the temperatures (at least according to Ben Noll's tweet) warming up quite nicely, it would be quite interesting to see how all of this turns out.

[SFLcane]

Watch out Florida!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1380886535151714309

[DorkyMcDorkface]

SSTs in the Atlantic have warmed a good deal over the past three days. In fact the pattern of warming has almost taken a +AMO horseshoe look to it.

(again this is change over the past three days, not the actual SST anoms themselves)

[AutoPenalti]

Watch out Florida!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1380886535151714309

If we extrapolate that it would almost seem like a lot of homegrowns will develop this year.

[aspen]

Watch out Florida!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1380886535151714309

Once again, another dry Caribbean. I think it’s safe to say we’re not gonna get the same nuclear mode WCar we got in 2020. That doesn’t mean there won’t be Caribbean-grown systems; it’s just that Cat 4s and 5s are much less likely.

[Shell Mound]

Watch out Florida!

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1380886535151714309

If we extrapolate that it would almost seem like a lot of homegrowns will develop this year.

Actually, the NMME suggests the opposite: fewer homegrown systems in the Caribbean/GoM and more long-trackers in the MDR that develop far to the east.

[cycloneye]

SSTs in the Atlantic have warmed a good deal over the past three days. In fact the pattern of warming has almost taken a +AMO horseshoe look to it.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/830470869284683826/oisst_diff_3d_tropatl_2021040900.png
(again this is change over the past three days, not the actual SST anoms themselves)

I wonder if the ST Vincent volcano LaSoufriere that continues to erupt bigtime plays a roll on the sst's if it continues to be active in the next few weeks.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

SSTs in the Atlantic have warmed a good deal over the past three days. In fact the pattern of warming has almost taken a +AMO horseshoe look to it.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/830470869284683826/oisst_diff_3d_tropatl_2021040900.png
(again this is change over the past three days, not the actual SST anoms themselves)

I wonder if the ST Vincent volcano LaSoufriere that continues to erupt bigtime plays a roll on the sst's if it continues to be active in the next few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/SNTOpwQ.jpg

That's a really good point. Worth watching for sure.

[SteveM]

SSTs in the Atlantic have warmed a good deal over the past three days. In fact the pattern of warming has almost taken a +AMO horseshoe look to it.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/830470869284683826/oisst_diff_3d_tropatl_2021040900.png
(again this is change over the past three days, not the actual SST anoms themselves)

I wonder if the ST Vincent volcano LaSoufriere that continues to erupt bigtime plays a roll on the sst's if it continues to be active in the next few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/SNTOpwQ.jpg

That's a really good point. Worth watching for sure.

What sort of effect might it have? Volcanic ash inhibiting the sun from warming the sea, or something else?

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the ST Vincent volcano LaSoufriere that continues to erupt bigtime plays a roll on the sst's if it continues to be active in the next few weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/SNTOpwQ.jpg

That's a really good point. Worth watching for sure.

What sort of effect might it have? Volcanic ash inhibiting the sun from warming the sea, or something else?

What you said first.

[cycloneye]

Very thick ash.

[cycloneye]

Eagered to see our friend in Barbados abajan as that island is being bigtime affected by thick ash.

[Category5Kaiju]

If I remember Soufrie last had an explosive eruption in 1979? But yeah, I have actually been very curious to see what would happen if a hurricane interacted with volcanic ash from an eruption. Not sure if there are recorded examples of this occurring but it has interested me to say the least

[Iceresistance]

If I remember Soufrie last had an explosive eruption in 1979? But yeah, I have actually been very curious to see what would happen if a hurricane interacted with volcanic ash from an eruption. Not sure if there are recorded examples of this occurring but it has interested me to say the least

Typhoon Yunya in 1991 over the Phillipines . . .

EDIT: I got the wrong year

[Hayabusa]

If I remember Soufrie last had an explosive eruption in 1979? But yeah, I have actually been very curious to see what would happen if a hurricane interacted with volcanic ash from an eruption. Not sure if there are recorded examples of this occurring but it has interested me to say the least

Typhoon Yunya in 1993 over the Phillipines . . .

It's actually 1991 from Mount Pinatubo

[Iceresistance]

If I remember Soufrie last had an explosive eruption in 1979? But yeah, I have actually been very curious to see what would happen if a hurricane interacted with volcanic ash from an eruption. Not sure if there are recorded examples of this occurring but it has interested me to say the least

Typhoon Yunya in 1993 over the Phillipines . . .

It's actually 1991 from Mount Pinatubo

Thanks for the year, I was not 100% sure on when, but I knew it was Yunya . . .

[ClarCari]

I doubt the St. Vincent mountain will contribute much of anything to the MDR cooling when it matters the most.
Too far out from when the waves start spilling out around mid to late July.
If this volcanic activity had occurred in July however, then combined with the usually SAL spills we see during that month it could have a considerable effect on the MDR for August and even September.
So let’s see if another volcano awakens during July!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I doubt the St. Vincent mountain will contribute much of anything to the MDR cooling when it matters the most.
Too far out from when the waves start spilling out around mid to late July.
If this volcanic activity had occurred in July however, then combined with the usually SAL spills we see during that month it could have a considerable effect on the MDR for August and even September.
So let’s see if another volcano awakens during July!

Now that I think about it yeah, in the long term it will ultimately be negligible. The effects of SAL are significant because the plumes can be so extensive and dense and can last for long durations. In this case, I don't think it will really make too much of a difference.

Regardless though, hopefully those folks down there make it out okay, I can't imagine how scary the situation is right now.

[chaser1]

Depending of course on the volume of volcanic particulates thrust into Earth's atmosphere by a significant enough volcanic event, the result would not only potentially lower SST'S. Additional far reaching impact to thwart tropical development may also occur by reduced humidity and sinking air throughout much of the tropics and sub-tropic regions. This could significantly suppress convection and act to disrupt tropical cyclones from maintaining organization. Good luck though in trying to predict which volcanic events could lead to such climate impact.

[Category5Kaiju]

Tambora in 1815 would have definitely affected tropical cyclones around the world due to how big that was