2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3461 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:46 am

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Wild hypothesis: The amount of season cancel posts correlates with current activity, not potential activity.

There was a brief lull in season cancelling yesterday when 95L and 97L looked impressive for invests. Then they returned immediately today when they became naked swirls.

On a more serious note, this has been well-modeled in advance. We know a suppressed phase was bound to happen in mid-September, and we also know they will become more favorable in one or two weeks. I would reserve all 2013 calls until at least end of October.

Are we sure conditions will become more favorable in that short of a time frame? I thought the suppressed MJO phase was supposed to peak at the end of September.


The ECMWF shows a favorable CCKW moving across the Atlantic in about a week from now, which should make conditions more favorable by then.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3462 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:47 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3463 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:53 am



La Nina impending year? Late September/Early October? Western Caribbean? Cyclone? Sounds about right
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3464 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:56 am

Just a reminder of the two seasons that used a lot of names.

2005
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2020
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2021 (so far)
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3465 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:04 am

At this point, I believe it is very likely 2021 will rival 2020 and 2005. However, I am not ready to say it will. There are three seasons that reached the 17th storm in September: 2005, 2011, and 2020. If Invest 97L becomes Tropical Storm Peter, it would mean that the fate of this hurricane season is dependent upon October.

2011 practically shut down after September 30; 2005 and 2020 did not. If 2021 does not shut down after September 30, it will likely mean a historic, possibly record-breaking hurricane season; if 2021 shuts down after September 30, it would mean an active hurricane season, but it would not be that active.

From the modelling, it looks like 2021 is not going to shut down after September 30, which would imply a historic hurricane season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3466 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:08 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:At this point, I believe it is very likely 2021 will rival 2020 and 2005. However, I am not ready to say it will. There are three seasons that reached the 17th storm in September: 2005, 2011, and 2020. If Invest 97L becomes Tropical Storm Peter, it would mean that the fate of this hurricane season is dependent upon October.

2011 practically shut down after September 30; 2005 and 2020 did not. If 2021 does not shut down after September 30, it will likely mean a historic, possibly record-breaking hurricane season; if 2021 shuts down after September 30, it would mean an active hurricane season, but it would not be that active.

From the modelling, it looks like 2021 is not going to shut down after September 30, which would imply a historic hurricane season.

I could see a 2020 Lite Version: more then 20 NS but not as many as 2005/20, some big October storms, and with even more quanitity-over-quality thanks to a trashy September.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3467 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:29 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:At this point, I believe it is very likely 2021 will rival 2020 and 2005. However, I am not ready to say it will. There are three seasons that reached the 17th storm in September: 2005, 2011, and 2020. If Invest 97L becomes Tropical Storm Peter, it would mean that the fate of this hurricane season is dependent upon October.

2011 practically shut down after September 30; 2005 and 2020 did not. If 2021 does not shut down after September 30, it will likely mean a historic, possibly record-breaking hurricane season; if 2021 shuts down after September 30, it would mean an active hurricane season, but it would not be that active.

From the modelling, it looks like 2021 is not going to shut down after September 30, which would imply a historic hurricane season.

From a numbers perspective I could see 20+ named storms happening with a potential shot at the auxiliary list. From a quality perspective? I expect October to have stronger storms than September due to the MJO being in a more favorable position, but neither Peter nor 16L look likely to become strong at this time. Chances of 2021 reaching 150+ ACE are decreasing, without nothing short of a 2020-esque late season.

If 2021 finished like 21-8-4 I wouldn't say it rivaled 2005 and 2020.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3468 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:32 am

Yeah we have a serious dearth of quality this September. Clinging to storm counts to try to compare this year to 2005 at this point is...like going trick or treating and getting a ton of candy corn. No one wants that stuff. In a season with high expectations folks are looking for quality in september and they haven't gotten it. Still, for those that like a lack of stress, upright trees and functioning power, this peak season relative tranquility has been a blessing. I'll be shocked if someone doesn't get a good scare (or worse) from a significant storm in October..but the free pass at the apex of climo mountain is as nice as it was unexpected.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3469 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:37 am

psyclone wrote:Yeah we have a serious dearth of quality this September. Clinging to storm counts to try to compare this year to 2005 at this point is...like going trick or treating and getting a ton of candy corn. No one wants that stuff. In a season with high expectations folks are looking for quality in september and they haven't gotten it. Still, for those that like a lack of stress, upright trees and functioning power, this peak season relative tranquility has been a blessing. I'll be shocked if someone doesn't get a good scare (or worse) from a significant storm in October..but the free pass at the apex of climo mountain is as nice as it was unexpected.


An empty September on the impact scale means nothing to us on the FL peninsula. Indicators not looking so friendly on the horizon. Much woods to get through yet.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3470 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:43 am

All I am going to say at this point is I would not be surprised if activity really ramps up late this month and into next month and possibly November. I specifically recall rumblings of a below average or underperforming season last year due to only 1 MH happening in September with a bunch of junk TSs at around this point in time, and then look what occurred.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3471 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:48 pm

Does anyone remember if there were indications last year that October was gonna be stupid busy, I can't seem to remember if there was. I think Ben Noll was on it but are we seeing the same indications this year as we did last year?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3472 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:55 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:Does anyone remember if there were indications last year that October was gonna be stupid busy, I can't seem to remember if there was. I think Ben Noll was on it but are we seeing the same indications this year as we did last year?


In 2020 there was pretty much the exact same situation as this year. Look at this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=3100#p2859717. It mentions a suppressing CCKW in the 3rd week of September and after that some model indications that around the end of the month / start of October a more favorable CCKW could result in an uptick in development. Turns out that is exactly what happened last year.

Also on the 18th of September, 2020 SFLCane said this:
"Incoming CCKW+La Nina+ super warm ssts= Potentially very busy October."

The fact that what we're seeing now kinda already happened last year is the main reason why I'm quite confident that we'll see a big uptick in activity near the end of the month.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3473 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:59 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:Does anyone remember if there were indications last year that October was gonna be stupid busy, I can't seem to remember if there was. I think Ben Noll was on it but are we seeing the same indications this year as we did last year?

The late October/November activity was definitely hinted at. This is from Kingarabian last year.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3474 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 1:14 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:Does anyone remember if there were indications last year that October was gonna be stupid busy, I can't seem to remember if there was. I think Ben Noll was on it but are we seeing the same indications this year as we did last year?

The late October/November activity was definitely hinted at. This is from Kingarabian last year.
Image
kevin wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:Does anyone remember if there were indications last year that October was gonna be stupid busy, I can't seem to remember if there was. I think Ben Noll was on it but are we seeing the same indications this year as we did last year?


In 2020 there was pretty much the exact same situation as this year. Look at this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=3100#p2859717. It mentions a suppressing CCKW in the 3rd week of September and after that some model indications that around the end of the month / start of October a more favorable CCKW could result in an uptick in development. Turns out that is exactly what happened last year.

Also on the 18th of September, 2020 SFLCane said this:
"Incoming CCKW+La Nina+ super warm ssts= Potentially very busy October."

The fact that what we're seeing now kinda already happened last year is the main reason why I'm quite confident that we'll see a big uptick in activity near the end of the month.


Thanks! Just wanted to have a solid base for my argument that matches pretty much everyone else's on this forum that at least some form of trouble is coming. Not sure how much trouble we are talking but I think we will have at least 1-2 powerful hurricanes in October going into November.

Something to also really watch for is that a powerful cold front train may be coming. 90s today here in Minnesota, 50s tomorrow. I'm thousands of miles away from the tropics but large scale processes such as these do impact the tropics pressure trend wise. We saw it last year and we are already starting to see it again. I know Joe Bastardi would have a thing or two to say about that :lol:

Just saw this too. CFS starting to back that active October and November idea up as well. Higher precip anomalies showing up as well as a signal for that active WAM, which active WAM years are correlated with an active Caribbean Sea from what I read this morning from Andy Hazelton I think it was, may have been another pro met.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3475 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:36 pm

For refence: six storms (Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, and Rose) have formed this month. We are on track with 2005 and 2011 in terms of storm count.

On the GEFS and ECENS ensembles, there are indications of two more potential MDR storms and one Caribbean storm. Should all three of those develop, September 2021 would have featured nine storms, bring the season to Victor. Come October, a surge of activity is expected; but like last year, October is expected to feature stronger storms than September.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3476 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:40 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:For refence: six storms (Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, and Rose) have formed this month. We are on track with 2005 and 2011 in terms of storm count.

On the GEFS and ECENS ensembles, there are indications of two more potential MDR storms and one Caribbean storm. Should all three of those develop, September 2021 would have featured nine storms, bring the season to Victor. Come October, a surge of activity is expected; but like last year, October is expected to feature stronger storms than September.


Well how about that, my vote of 7 or more named storms in September might turn out to be right after all. :P Not entirely sure if Larry counts or not though.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3477 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:46 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:For refence: six storms (Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, and Rose) have formed this month. We are on track with 2005 and 2011 in terms of storm count.

On the GEFS and ECENS ensembles, there are indications of two more potential MDR storms and one Caribbean storm. Should all three of those develop, September 2021 would have featured nine storms, bring the season to Victor. Come October, a surge of activity is expected; but like last year, October is expected to feature stronger storms than September.


I know I'm harping on this, but if you say ACE is laughable I'll say storm count is laughable. It's totally legitimate, but has no correlation to the strength of this season. Let's get to the end, then look back, but I suspect the reason we went to an alternate naming list is because the NHC expects to go long multiple years due to better detection and a slightly looser naming standards. I agree they need that flexibility, which is why we need better metrics than counting names.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3478 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:00 pm

tolakram wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:For refence: six storms (Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, and Rose) have formed this month. We are on track with 2005 and 2011 in terms of storm count.

On the GEFS and ECENS ensembles, there are indications of two more potential MDR storms and one Caribbean storm. Should all three of those develop, September 2021 would have featured nine storms, bring the season to Victor. Come October, a surge of activity is expected; but like last year, October is expected to feature stronger storms than September.


I know I'm harping on this, but if you say ACE is laughable I'll say storm count is laughable. It's totally legitimate, but has no correlation to the strength of this season. Let's get to the end, then look back, but I suspect the reason we went to an alternate naming list is because the NHC expects to go long multiple years due to better detection and a slightly looser naming standards. I agree they need that flexibility, whoch is why we need better metrics than counting names.

That’s why both metrics exist: to be used together. For September 2021, they show that while the background state is good enough for frequent development, for the majority of the month, intraseasonal variability has been hostile and storms are having difficulty intensifying or sticking around. Even using my ICE metric in place of ACE shows the same thing; the average ICE for Fred to Julian is more than 1.5x greater than the average for Larry to Rose.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3479 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:13 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:For refence: six storms (Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, and Rose) have formed this month. We are on track with 2005 and 2011 in terms of storm count.

On the GEFS and ECENS ensembles, there are indications of two more potential MDR storms and one Caribbean storm. Should all three of those develop, September 2021 would have featured nine storms, bring the season to Victor. Come October, a surge of activity is expected; but like last year, October is expected to feature stronger storms than September.


Well how about that, my vote of 7 or more named storms in September might turn out to be right after all. :P Not entirely sure if Larry counts or not though.


For my own records, I count a storm in the month when it first is called a TC, which is not necessarily when it is first named. And then the time zone can be tricky. For my own purposes, I go by Eastern, but I could see justifying using GMT/UTC. Larry was first called a TD at 2100 GMT/2000 CVT/1700 EDT on 8/31. So, I consider him an August storm. The time zone doesn't matter here

If one prefers using the month when named, that's fine from my perspective, too. No matter what method is used, consistency is vital.
For Larry, that would make him a Sept storm as he was declared a TS at 0900 GMT/0800 CVT/0500 EDT on 9/1. So time zone doesn't matter here either.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3480 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:14 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Wild hypothesis: The amount of season cancel posts correlates with current activity, not potential activity.

There was a brief lull in season cancelling yesterday when 95L and 97L looked impressive for invests. Then they returned immediately today when they became naked swirls.

On a more serious note, this has been well-modeled in advance. We know a suppressed phase was bound to happen in mid-September, and we also know they will become more favorable in one or two weeks. I would reserve all 2013 calls until at least end of October.


To be fair, 2013 should in no way serve as any comparison with this season given we have already had 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and more NSs (and counting) with twice the ACE than that season ever had. I am honestly unsure about where this general idea of 2013 is suddenly coming from if you ask me.



There's a world of difference between comparing 2013 as a season, and questioning if the conditions that led to it (a decrease in the thermohaline circulation) might be occurring, since there aren't exactly a lot of seasons where this occurred that would offer clearer answers for comparison.

Something is clearly going on in the background that's leading to September (and practically the entire open Atlantic in general) substantially underperforming and I don't see why people need take issue with considering all possible factors.

It's also worth noting that the CFS has both gradually backed off of storm activity for October (aside from a continuation of weaker MDR storms) as well as Caribbean rainfall.
Last edited by Hammy on Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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