2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4201 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:56 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:It's amazing how much the La Niña this year did absolutely nothing to promote late-season activity. The basin has behaved like an El Niño since early October. Also, the season only surpassed 140 ACE because of Sam, without Sam, I don't even know if we would've crossed 100.

I think that climate change may be altering the large-scale atmospheric patterns and resulting in unusual outcomes. Even with La Niña in place, the Pacific and Indian basins are larger and thus tend to absorb more heat in a warmer climate than the tropical Atlantic, so in absolute terms they exert more influence on Earth’s weather. I cannot recall the exact source, but elsewhere some sources have blamed a warming Pacific basin for the recent dearth of active tornado seasons, especially on the Great Plains, since 2013. Combined with a warmer subtropical Atlantic, the warming Pacific and Indian basins may, along with an expanded Hadley cell, contribute to greater stability and TUTT intrusions over the tropical Atlantic, on balance, in a warming climate, so Niñas may at time behave more like Niños. At the very least, these factors might tend to result in fewer and/or shorter-lived major hurricanes (à la 2005 and 2020 vs. a year like 2004 or 2017) and thus less ACE, even in active seasons, especially over the MDR. Studies have suggested that climate change would decrease the number of tropical storms and perhaps even hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but result in a slight increase in maximum potential intensity insofar as the strongest storms are concerned.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4202 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:01 pm

Anomalous blocking over the SW Atlantic and Caribbean has been persistent.
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It is keeping the ITCZ low and suppressed, steering waves into the eastern Pacific.
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With mid latitude cyclones tracking around its north flank.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4203 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:58 pm

This Nina hasn’t completely acted not like a Nina. It has certainly acted like one in the WPac and EPac, but it’s more like a Niño in the Atlantic. It’s strange that the most suppressive possible scenarios has verified on a global scale. Maybe climate change is to blame like Shell suggested; it might’ve also been responsible for the THC collapse that led to 2013 being, well, 2013.

Fall 2021 has become the new 2013 lol.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4204 Postby Teban54 » Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:59 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:It's amazing how much the La Niña this year did absolutely nothing to promote late-season activity. The basin has behaved like an El Niño since early October. Also, the season only surpassed 140 ACE because of Sam, without Sam, I don't even know if we would've crossed 100.

I think that climate change may be altering the large-scale atmospheric patterns and resulting in unusual outcomes. Even with La Niña in place, the Pacific and Indian basins are larger and thus tend to absorb more heat in a warmer climate than the tropical Atlantic, so in absolute terms they exert more influence on Earth’s weather. I cannot recall the exact source, but elsewhere some sources have blamed a warming Pacific basin for the recent dearth of active tornado seasons, especially on the Great Plains, since 2013. Combined with a warmer subtropical Atlantic, the warming Pacific and Indian basins may, along with an expanded Hadley cell, contribute to greater stability and TUTT intrusions over the tropical Atlantic, on balance, in a warming climate, so Niñas may at time behave more like Niños. At the very least, these factors might tend to result in fewer and/or shorter-lived major hurricanes (à la 2005 and 2020 vs. a year like 2004 or 2017) and thus less ACE, even in active seasons, especially over the MDR. Studies have suggested that climate change would decrease the number of tropical storms and perhaps even hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but result in a slight increase in maximum potential intensity insofar as the strongest storms are concerned.

How would climate change explain the polar opposites of Oct/Nov 2020 and Oct/Nov 2021 happening in consecutive years, then?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4205 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 07, 2021 6:14 pm

2021 is now the fourth year where the Atlantic produces more official named storms than the WPac; the Atlantic is at 21 (and could be 22 in a few days) while the WPac is at 20. The EPac only slightly trails behind them at 19 NS.

All three big NHEM basins have had similar NS totals, and all have mostly been quantity-over-quality with only a few standout storms per basin and a lot of slop. Interestingly, despite this, 2021 has produced three 40+ ACE systems worldwide (Surigae, Chanthu, and Sam), a feat 2020 never accomplished.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4206 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:35 pm

2021 in the Atlantic was basically a 2007 repeat but with more systems overall. And what makes it especially similar to 2007 is the unusual October shutdown that resembled warm ENSO more than cool ENSO conditions.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4207 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:00 am

2021 seems to be an extreme example of why 2004 and 2017 saw reduced activity after ridiculously active MDRs in August and September: the ITCZ was too low to favor non-CAG Caribbean storms in October and November, but it was low enough to allow for multiple 30+ ACE long-trackers earlier in the year. This doesn’t completely explain 2021, however, because 2017 still found a way to produce a major in the subtropics, and neither it nor 2004 had as long of a late-season drought as 2021.
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2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4208 Postby skyline385 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:51 am

aspen wrote:2021 is now the fourth year where the Atlantic produces more official named storms than the WPac; the Atlantic is at 21 (and could be 22 in a few days) while the WPac is at 20. The EPac only slightly trails behind them at 19 NS.

All three big NHEM basins have had similar NS totals, and all have mostly been quantity-over-quality with only a few standout storms per basin and a lot of slop. Interestingly, despite this, 2021 has produced three 40+ ACE systems worldwide (Surigae, Chanthu, and Sam), a feat 2020 never accomplished.


Well to be fair, NATL 2020 didn't even get a single Cat 5 and almost all majors were RI'ing systems close to landfall. So it's not entirely surprising that it did not have individual ACE monsters.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4209 Postby skyline385 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:51 pm

Something seems to be brewing up on the WPAC finally on the GFS. The major drought may end before the season is over...
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4210 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:48 pm

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:2021 is now the fourth year where the Atlantic produces more official named storms than the WPac; the Atlantic is at 21 (and could be 22 in a few days) while the WPac is at 20. The EPac only slightly trails behind them at 19 NS.

All three big NHEM basins have had similar NS totals, and all have mostly been quantity-over-quality with only a few standout storms per basin and a lot of slop. Interestingly, despite this, 2021 has produced three 40+ ACE systems worldwide (Surigae, Chanthu, and Sam), a feat 2020 never accomplished.


Well to be fair, NATL 2020 didn't even get a single Cat 5 and almost all majors were RI'ing systems close to landfall. So it's not entirely surprising that it did not have individual ACE monsters.

I mean if you want to get technical I can disagree with the first part of your statement but I’m not going to.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4211 Postby skyline385 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:22 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:2021 is now the fourth year where the Atlantic produces more official named storms than the WPac; the Atlantic is at 21 (and could be 22 in a few days) while the WPac is at 20. The EPac only slightly trails behind them at 19 NS.

All three big NHEM basins have had similar NS totals, and all have mostly been quantity-over-quality with only a few standout storms per basin and a lot of slop. Interestingly, despite this, 2021 has produced three 40+ ACE systems worldwide (Surigae, Chanthu, and Sam), a feat 2020 never accomplished.


Well to be fair, NATL 2020 didn't even get a single Cat 5 and almost all majors were RI'ing systems close to landfall. So it's not entirely surprising that it did not have individual ACE monsters.

I mean if you want to get technical I can disagree with the first part of your statement but I’m not going to.

Am curious, what part of my statement is technically wrong?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4212 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:02 pm

aspen wrote:2021 seems to be an extreme example of why 2004 and 2017 saw reduced activity after ridiculously active MDRs in August and September: the ITCZ was too low to favor non-CAG Caribbean storms in October and November, but it was low enough to allow for multiple 30+ ACE long-trackers earlier in the year. This doesn’t completely explain 2021, however, because 2017 still found a way to produce a major in the subtropics, and neither it nor 2004 had as long of a late-season drought as 2021.


There were contributing factors in 2004, being a Modoki El Nino, so worth noting in addition to the low ITCZ. But the ITCZ could have been a factor in other years as well, 1981 being an example--four back to back MDR hurricanes in September, followed by absolutely nothing in October until the 29th, when Jose (of similar origin to Wanda) formed. While there was also a hurricane in the NW Caribbean in early November that year, it appears to have originated from an upper trough and not CAG.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4213 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:19 pm

skyline385 wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Well to be fair, NATL 2020 didn't even get a single Cat 5 and almost all majors were RI'ing systems close to landfall. So it's not entirely surprising that it did not have individual ACE monsters.

I mean if you want to get technical I can disagree with the first part of your statement but I’m not going to.

Am curious, what part of my statement is technically wrong?

I think he’s talking about no Cat 5s in 2020. Iota is a very borderline case, and if Eta was a Cat 5, then recon missed it; another flight was on its way after the one that recorded 922mb and a 5-6 mb/hr deepening rate, but it suddenly turned back after reaching the Yucatán Channel.

Both 2020 and 2021 had possible Cat 5s that had no recon for most of the day of their peak intensities due to bad luck or poor scheduling. I hope 2022 doesn’t continue that trend.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4214 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:46 pm

It's amazing how since 2015 we're on a 7 year streak where the strongest storm of the season is a borderline Cat 5 with 155 mph winds or a bona fide Cat 5. I'm certain there has not been any recent historical streak of years that featured something this. I wonder if 2022 will continue this trend or not.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4215 Postby skyline385 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:19 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:I mean if you want to get technical I can disagree with the first part of your statement but I’m not going to.

Am curious, what part of my statement is technically wrong?

I think he’s talking about no Cat 5s in 2020. Iota is a very borderline case, and if Eta was a Cat 5, then recon missed it; another flight was on its way after the one that recorded 922mb and a 5-6 mb/hr deepening rate, but it suddenly turned back after reaching the Yucatán Channel.

Both 2020 and 2021 had possible Cat 5s that had no recon for most of the day of their peak intensities due to bad luck or poor scheduling. I hope 2022 doesn’t continue that trend.


I mean that's not being technically wrong, cause that would mean I was factually wrong but we dont know if Iota and Eta got to Cat 5. Both were monster storms but a lot of people here were misled by the cold tops (It was November) and probably overestimated its intensity. I remember seeing people hyping up Eta to be 160-180 kts in the discussion thread last year...
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4216 Postby zhukm29 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:05 pm

I honestly find it pretty funny that we got Victor on September 29 and will likely miss the aux list, with this latest AOI dropping down to 0/0 and nothing on the models in the next week or so. I guess the models that were showing nothing in October were right after all... a rare case recently where the bulls are the ones eating crow!

Quite frankly one of the strangest seasons I've tracked... :eek:

I do think the low-latitude ITCZ might have played a role, sending all the waves into the EPAC instead of the Caribbean. Just to show how bizarre everything is, this is the first time where both the NATL and EPAC reached the "T" name in a single season - the EPAC is literally going to have more named storms than the NATL in both October and November during a La Niña!
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4217 Postby skyline385 » Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:29 am

Half of the Gulf is already below 26C SST from all the cold fronts dropping deep (iirc, last year it was mostly the shelf waters which had cooled down by this time) and it seems the Caribbean has started to cool down as well, I think we are truly done for this season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4218 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:44 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1457742845243125766




With every passing day, the global cyclone pattern imho becomes even more confusing. I mean, it's not like we had a major volcanic eruption like Krakatoa or Pinatubo occur anytime recently, not to mention it's not just the dead Atlantic that is mind-boggling, it's literally every other basin, WPAC included.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4219 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:45 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1457742845243125766

With every passing day, the global cyclone pattern imho becomes even more confusing. I mean, it's not like we had a major volcanic eruption like Krakatoa or Pinatubo occur anytime recently, not to mention it's not just the dead Atlantic that is mind-boggling, it's literally every other basin, WPAC included.


Yeah, seems like it's a very amplified global pattern. Kinda fluky almost. Now we're getting into the transition season. Whatever it is glad the Atlantic season is over it was one of the most annoying and odd years I have followed.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4220 Postby abajan » Fri Nov 12, 2021 7:25 pm

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