2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4221 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 13, 2021 8:11 pm

The MJO is STILL sitting way up there! I think it tried to pull a 2013 but it only managed to get October & November.

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small8cf0473ce21f2cc3.gif
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4222 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Nov 14, 2021 12:34 am

This has got to be one of those very rare occasions when something extremely weird happens and unexpectedly bucks climo (in this case, toward unusual levels of inactivity); for the entire world to have zero major strength cyclones since September (and with models not hinting at anything from what I see major in the near future in any basin)...I think there's more than just the La Nina, MJO, etc. that is causing this. For the WPAC, which is the most favorable basin for strong activity year-round, to be unable to produce anything significant in the recent past and in the near future, there must be some condition(s) that is/are extremely unfriendly for TC formation, and it/they seem(s) to have wide-range effects.

We really need to look back at what happened this year so we are better prepared to understand future seasons. I personally am extremely curious to find out whatever this mystery factor(s) is causing the shutdown.
7 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4223 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:35 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:This has got to be one of those very rare occasions when something extremely weird happens and unexpectedly bucks climo (in this case, toward unusual levels of inactivity); for the entire world to have zero major strength cyclones since September (and with models not hinting at anything from what I see major in the near future in any basin)...I think there's more than just the La Nina, MJO, etc. that is causing this. For the WPAC, which is the most favorable basin for strong activity year-round, to be unable to produce anything significant in the recent past and in the near future, there must be some condition(s) that is/are extremely unfriendly for TC formation, and it/they seem(s) to have wide-range effects.

We really need to look back at what happened this year so we are better prepared to understand future seasons. I personally am extremely curious to find out whatever this mystery factor(s) is causing the shutdown.


I’m interested to see where this goes… this was similar to 2007 but even more quiet.
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4224 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:This has got to be one of those very rare occasions when something extremely weird happens and unexpectedly bucks climo (in this case, toward unusual levels of inactivity); for the entire world to have zero major strength cyclones since September (and with models not hinting at anything from what I see major in the near future in any basin)...I think there's more than just the La Nina, MJO, etc. that is causing this. For the WPAC, which is the most favorable basin for strong activity year-round, to be unable to produce anything significant in the recent past and in the near future, there must be some condition(s) that is/are extremely unfriendly for TC formation, and it/they seem(s) to have wide-range effects.

We really need to look back at what happened this year so we are better prepared to understand future seasons. I personally am extremely curious to find out whatever this mystery factor(s) is causing the shutdown.


I’m interested to see where this goes… this was similar to 2007 but even more quiet.

I said in an earlier post that this is like a blend of 2007 and 2011: reduced Atlantic activity despite a La Niña (2007), some October landfalling EPac hurricanes (2011), and reduced activity in the WPac (2011). This differs from both 2007 and 2011 due to a lack of hurricanes after Sam and a lack of majors in the EPac. Also, as inactive as the WPac has been, it was even quieter in Oct-Dec 2011, with only two named systems and zero typhoons forming after the dissipation of C4 Nalgae. This Oct-Nov has had 4NS and one typhoon so far — just nothing impressive.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4225 Postby Teban54 » Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:13 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:This has got to be one of those very rare occasions when something extremely weird happens and unexpectedly bucks climo (in this case, toward unusual levels of inactivity); for the entire world to have zero major strength cyclones since September (and with models not hinting at anything from what I see major in the near future in any basin)...I think there's more than just the La Nina, MJO, etc. that is causing this. For the WPAC, which is the most favorable basin for strong activity year-round, to be unable to produce anything significant in the recent past and in the near future, there must be some condition(s) that is/are extremely unfriendly for TC formation, and it/they seem(s) to have wide-range effects.

We really need to look back at what happened this year so we are better prepared to understand future seasons. I personally am extremely curious to find out whatever this mystery factor(s) is causing the shutdown.

What's strange was that the tropics were fairly active globally before the sudden shutdown in October (aside from maybe Rick). EPac produced 2 eye-candy annular Cat 4s even during La Nina. WPac may be far from the absolute monster it could have been, but we still got three Cat 5s including yet another T8.0 Surigae. Not to mention the Atlantic which just finished off September with long-lived Sam.

It's not as if La Nina isn't conducive for WPac either - last year was a great example. And EPac's struggles for storms that did form certainly suggested the atmosphere was not El Nino-like.
2 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4226 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 15, 2021 7:24 pm

Interestingly, 2007 and 2011 both were moderate to strong La Ninas; while this is not always the case as we saw with moderate to strong La Nina years with 2010 and 2020, if this La Nina enters moderate territory maybe it will give more credibility to the idea that potent La Ninas may not always favor Atlantic activity in the long run? But then again, looking at the globe the inactivity this year just seems unparalleled, and in that sense even 2007 and 2011 don't seem to be the most representative analogs and seem to be more active and "normal" or "expected" to a degree (albeit they're probably the best analog years we currently have).
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4227 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:43 pm

I stand by my theory that La Nina years are not hot for global TC activity. The Atlantic side might be favored, but unless it gets hyperactive a la 2005, 2017, and 2020, it's going to be a challenge to raise the global activity to normal level (especially ACE-wise) with a suppressed Pacific.


If we want a very active ATL all year round, I suppose that can be achieved during a cold neutral or weak La Nina. Moderate to strong ones, maybe not so much...
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4228 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:44 am

The fact today is acting at the opposite end of what we saw last year just makes it even weirder (Nov Cat 5* vs crickets even worldwide)

*My analysis and probably others too (borderline case)
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4229 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:17 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I stand by my theory that La Nina years are not hot for global TC activity. The Atlantic side might be favored, but unless it gets hyperactive a la 2005, 2017, and 2020, it's going to be a challenge to raise the global activity to normal level (especially ACE-wise) with a suppressed Pacific.


If we want a very active ATL all year round, I suppose that can be achieved during a cold neutral or weak La Nina. Moderate to strong ones, maybe not so much...


2010 La Nina was pretty strong and the Atlantic was quite active--it appears part of the problem, and something this year had in common with 2007, was a sort of split in anomalies, with the waters off Central America north of the equator were quite a bit warmer than normal.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4230 Postby skyline385 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Interestingly, 2007 and 2011 both were moderate to strong La Ninas; while this is not always the case as we saw with moderate to strong La Nina years with 2010 and 2020, if this La Nina enters moderate territory maybe it will give more credibility to the idea that potent La Ninas may not always favor Atlantic activity in the long run? But then again, looking at the globe the inactivity this year just seems unparalleled, and in that sense even 2007 and 2011 don't seem to be the most representative analogs and seem to be more active and "normal" or "expected" to a degree (albeit they're probably the best analog years we currently have).


The current wasn't a very potent one though. Nina 3.4 however around -1.0°C and we only officially entered La Nina in October.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4231 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:27 am

La Nina is not everything, and continuing to attach seasonal activity, especially hyperactivity, to the occurrence of a single pattern doesn't work IMO.
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4232 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:43 am

Teban54 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:It's amazing how much the La Niña this year did absolutely nothing to promote late-season activity. The basin has behaved like an El Niño since early October. Also, the season only surpassed 140 ACE because of Sam, without Sam, I don't even know if we would've crossed 100.

I think that climate change may be altering the large-scale atmospheric patterns and resulting in unusual outcomes. Even with La Niña in place, the Pacific and Indian basins are larger and thus tend to absorb more heat in a warmer climate than the tropical Atlantic, so in absolute terms they exert more influence on Earth’s weather. I cannot recall the exact source, but elsewhere some sources have blamed a warming Pacific basin for the recent dearth of active tornado seasons, especially on the Great Plains, since 2013. Combined with a warmer subtropical Atlantic, the warming Pacific and Indian basins may, along with an expanded Hadley cell, contribute to greater stability and TUTT intrusions over the tropical Atlantic, on balance, in a warming climate, so Niñas may at time behave more like Niños. At the very least, these factors might tend to result in fewer and/or shorter-lived major hurricanes (à la 2005 and 2020 vs. a year like 2004 or 2017) and thus less ACE, even in active seasons, especially over the MDR. Studies have suggested that climate change would decrease the number of tropical storms and perhaps even hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, but result in a slight increase in maximum potential intensity insofar as the strongest storms are concerned.

How would climate change explain the polar opposites of Oct/Nov 2020 and Oct/Nov 2021 happening in consecutive years, then?

I'm alluding to general, large-scale conditions since 2005 and especially since 2010/'13.
0 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4233 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:06 pm

Instead of Global Warming maybe we have Global Windshearing this year :lol: :lol:
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1461815179826630659



Lol what a DEAD backhalf of the season, especially given how crazy 2020 was with Delta,Zeta,Epsilon,Eta,Iota and Goni
1 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4234 Postby Teban54 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 6:33 pm

Stormybajan wrote:Instead of Global Warming maybe we have Global Windshearing this year :lol: :lol:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1461815179826630659
Lol what a DEAD backhalf of the season, especially given how crazy 2020 was with Delta,Zeta,Epsilon,Eta,Iota and Goni

Never thought I would see 2013 comparisons actually making sense and even applicable to the entire hemisphere.

The actual 2013 was also lackluster globally until October and November, with Raymond and Haiyan.
2 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4235 Postby skyline385 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 4:38 am

Stormybajan wrote:Instead of Global Warming maybe we have Global Windshearing this year :lol: :lol:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1461815179826630659
Lol what a DEAD backhalf of the season, especially given how crazy 2020 was with Delta,Zeta,Epsilon,Eta,Iota and Goni


It is pretty insane that this stat developed in the 3rd most active NATL hurricane season which was also immediately after the most active NATL hurricane season.
2 likes   

Deshaunrob17
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4236 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Sun Nov 21, 2021 1:23 pm

I'm glad this season didn't turn out as many predicted..Earlier in the season, I saw numerous posts about the strong SE Canadian high and wet Southern MDR and Southern Caribbean in the precipitation anomalies. Consequently, the pattern seemed one that fit a big Caribbean Cruise year, yet Elsa was probably the only Caribbeam cruiser. This goes to show how precip anomalies can be misleading.
Then September came and thought was that October is going to be big. Thankfully, did not happen.
Regardless of the activity, we still ended at an above-average year in all parameters. There are lessons to learned here
1 likes   

MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 663
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4237 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:13 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:I'm glad this season didn't turn out as many predicted..Earlier in the season, I saw numerous posts about the strong SE Canadian high and wet Southern MDR and Southern Caribbean in the precipitation anomalies. Consequently, the pattern seemed one that fit a big Caribbean Cruise year, yet Elsa was probably the only Caribbeam cruiser. This goes to show how precip anomalies can be misleading.
Then September came and thought was that October is going to be big. Thankfully, did not happen.
Regardless of the activity, we still ended at an above-average year in all parameters. There are lessons to learned here

Grace exists :lol:
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4238 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:50 am

After a record pace of inactivity, the MJO is posed to be finally be back in action again.

Image
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4239 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:01 am

It's a little late :)

Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4240 Postby psyclone » Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:41 pm

Well the instincts that I had on this season and shared were mostly wrong and the ones unshared were also wrong. Yikes. Most boring "almost hyperactive" season ever. Not a complaint...just an observation. West central FL is heading into a 2nd century of tranquility (wrt majors)...here's to hoping that's not a jinx. Sunny and 70 degrees and we've earned the downtime. Until next year...enjoy the break
5 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Chris90, Google Adsense [Bot], JtSmarts, ljmac75, TheWisestofAll, ToneLoc and 63 guests