2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3521 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:42 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:98L looks like it has a good chance to become a major hurricane in the MDR. It would be hard to call a MDR that produced two majors lackluster. The last season to produce two or more majors in the MDR was 2017.

Going back to 1960, the first year to be tracked by satellite, I decided to search for all the seasons that featured at least two MH in the MDR. I only managed to locate eight such cases: 1980, 1989, 1996, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, and 2017. In particular, 2009 stands out because it coincided with moderate Niño conditions yet featured Bill and Fred—the latter “officially” the second-farthest-east MH in the MDR up to that date, trailing 1980’s Frances, which, based on satellite imagery (pending reanalysis), was likely even stronger than Fred, while sited even farther southeast. With three MH in the MDR each, 2004 and 2017 stand out as the two most prolific years within the set. Despite coinciding with a west-based or “Modoki” Niño, 2004 featured no fewer than three storms that attained Category-4 status while in the MDR: Frances, Ivan, and Karl. Interestingly, since the launch of satellites there has been no MH in the MDR during October, so if a system behind 98L were to somehow become a MH while still in the MDR, it would join a very exclusive club.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3522 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:51 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1440792558897020929



That's a list of very infamous years to join.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3523 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:00 pm

Teban54 wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1440792558897020929?s=20
That's a list of very infamous years to join.


I'm kinda Surprised that 2020 did NOT have that many major Hurricanes before the end of September . . .
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3524 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:05 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Teban54 wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1440792558897020929?s=20
That's a list of very infamous years to join.


I'm kinda Surprised that 2020 did NOT have that many major Hurricanes before the end of September . . .


The level of activity in October and November during the 2020 season will not be matched for quite some time.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3525 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:06 pm

And all of those years that Phil mentioned (except 1916, but the vast majority of course)…ended as hyperactive years. Something tells me that the forecasts that some were making earlier about hyperactivity not looking likely by this season’s end may not age too well unfortunately.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3526 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:And all of those years that Phil mentioned (except 1916, but the vast majority of course)…ended as hyperactive years. Something tells me that the forecasts that some were making earlier about hyperactivity not looking likely by this season’s end may not age too well unfortunately.

To be fair, that seems like correlation more than causation, since most major hurricanes in those years generate more ACE per storm than Grace and Ida.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3527 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:26 pm

Looks like Sam will indeed be the next major and the storm that will finally push 2021 above average once and for all, then October will add to that quite a bit probably. What a forecast from the NHC though! Was shocked to see it :eek:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3528 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Another night where I can't sleep, so I'm analyzing random stuff instead.

Since people mentioned possibilities of active October and November, I compared some indicators for 2021 vs 2020 at around this time. I know it's generally not a good idea to compare to arguably the most active late season on record, but I thought it would give us some idea on what can we realistically expect. I digged out every image in the 2020 indicators thread from September 15 onwards that still works.

[...]


We did have a major hurricane form in the Caribbean a couple of weeks ago, though. We also had another hurricane in the Gulf about a week ago. They tend to upwell waters, which lowers SSTAs.

Indeed, Western Caribbean and Gulf are warming in the last 2 days:
Image
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3529 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:49 am

CyclonicFury wrote:98L looks like it has a good chance to become a major hurricane in the MDR. It would be hard to call a MDR that produced two majors lackluster. The last season to produce two or more majors in the MDR was 2017.

This season is going to put up near-historic numbers once it is finally over. It'll be near 2017 counts for H and MH's, but way above in named storms. Unlike 2017 that was basically all late August through September, this season is a very slow burn, much like 2020. If we get an active October. We could end anywhere between 5-7 majors. 5 or 6 is very possible, 7 would be insane, as it would tie 2005 and 2020.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3530 Postby storminabox » Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:39 am

It looks like the Atlantic will see a favorable blip of activity over the next week or two after the somewhat hostile conditions of mid September (though quite a bit of named storms). ACE should get a solid spike with Sam.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3531 Postby Zonacane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:06 am

Major number 4 coming right up with another hurricane right behind it, and we still have all of October
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3532 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:06 am

This year (especially with Larry and to be Sam) feels like a cross between 2020 and 2017. I am still personally expecting a hyperactive year with at least 165 ACE, and 5-7 majors.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3533 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:14 am

The Atlantic saw people complaining about the lack of ACE in September and decided to strike back with Sam :lol:. If we take the NHC forecast and assume that the 2 days after that Sam will remain at 100 kt, which is a conservative estimate since models seem to hint at continuous intensification, Sam alone would be able to reach an ACE of 21 by the end of September, pushing the season value above 100 units. It would also bring the ACE of September as a whole to ~60.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3534 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:43 am

kevin wrote:The Atlantic saw people complaining about the lack of ACE in September and decided to strike back with Sam :lol:. If we take the NHC forecast and assume that the 2 days after that Sam will remain at 100 kt, which is a conservative estimate since models seem to hint at continuous intensification, Sam alone would be able to reach an ACE of 21 by the end of September, pushing the season value above 100 units. It would also bring the ACE of September as a whole to ~60.


Just like 2016

If we compare the timing of 2021 and 2016, we see the two are very similar

2016: one May storm, active June, inactive July, active August, quantity-over-quality September (first half), major hurricane at end of September, major hurricanes in October and November
2021 (so far), one May storm, active June, inactive July, active August, quantity-over-quality September (first half), major hurricane at the end of September (possibly), ???
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3535 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:15 am

kevin wrote:The Atlantic saw people complaining about the lack of ACE in September and decided to strike back with Sam :lol:. If we take the NHC forecast and assume that the 2 days after that Sam will remain at 100 kt, which is a conservative estimate since models seem to hint at continuous intensification, Sam alone would be able to reach an ACE of 21 by the end of September, pushing the season value above 100 units. It would also bring the ACE of September as a whole to ~60.

2020's ACE at the end of September during the brief lull was 108.4275. 2021's current ACE is 83.7175.

Looks like Sam alone has a good chance to push 2021 ahead of 2020's totals by the time it dissipates, or even earlier by the end of September.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3536 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:53 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
kevin wrote:The Atlantic saw people complaining about the lack of ACE in September and decided to strike back with Sam :lol:. If we take the NHC forecast and assume that the 2 days after that Sam will remain at 100 kt, which is a conservative estimate since models seem to hint at continuous intensification, Sam alone would be able to reach an ACE of 21 by the end of September, pushing the season value above 100 units. It would also bring the ACE of September as a whole to ~60.


Just like 2016

If we compare the timing of 2021 and 2016, we see the two are very similar

2016: one May storm, active June, inactive July, active August, quantity-over-quality September (first half), major hurricane at end of September, major hurricanes in October and November
2021 (so far), one May storm, active June, inactive July, active August, quantity-over-quality September (first half), major hurricane at the end of September (possibly), ???


The only difference is I definitely think that this October will be more intense in quality and quantity storms than 2016's October ever was.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3537 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:24 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3539 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:27 pm



They display 7-day MSLP anomaly averages. Blues indicate below-average surface pressure; reds indicate above-average surface pressure.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3540 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:28 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:


They display 7-day MSLP anomaly averages. Blues indicate below-average surface pressure; reds indicate above-average surface pressure.


Thankyou for your reply!....
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