2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#221 Postby kevin » Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:05 am

The Tambora eruption resulted in the 'Year with no summer' so indeed it most likely also resulted in extreme changes to sea-water temperatures and thus cyclone formation. Regarding the eruption of La Soufrière initial reports mentioned an ash plume of ~10 km high, which would correspond to a VEI 3 - 4 eruption, which releases 0.001 - 0.1 km^3 of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. By comparison the Tambora released 160 - 213 km^3 of ash into the atmosphere. And estimates I found for the Pinatubo talk about 5 - 10 km^3. Please don't interpret this as me downplaying the terrible suffering the people are experiencing on the island right now, I'm just saying that I think it is unlikely, especially considering the time left until the season begins, that this will have any (significant) impact on the large-scale hurricane environment this season. On the other hand there is no way of saying how long the eruption is gonna last and how bad it might still get. Today I read about another 'explosive event' so if this eruption still lasts a while it could have more long-term effects. And eruptions such as the Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 were indeed powerful enough to significantly disrupt air travel in Western Europe in 2010, even though I can't remember whether it also significantly influenced (ocean) temperatures. And besides I'm absolutely no expert regarding volcanoes so please take this with a grain of salt :wink: .
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#222 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:19 am

kevin wrote:And eruptions such as the Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 were indeed powerful enough to significantly disrupt air travel in Western Europe in 2010, even though I can't remember whether it also significantly influenced (ocean) temperatures. And besides I'm absolutely no expert regarding volcanoes so please take this with a grain of salt :wink: .

The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE).

Source, pp. 30–1

So volcanism, by contributing to global cooling, may actually enhance hurricane activity rather than subdue it. More intense seasons occurred during the LIA.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#223 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:49 am

Ash is going to reach the Cabo Verde Islands from tommorow.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#224 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:17 am

The La Soufrière volcano made ANOTHER explosive eruption around 2 hours ago, picked up on Satellite on windy.com
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#225 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:58 pm

According to the most recent NOAA Coral Reef Watch sst anomalies map, the Atlantic has warmed very significantly and arguably even has a positive AMO horseshoe look to it. What a difference a week makes.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#226 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:00 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:According to the most recent NOAA Coral Reef Watch sst anomalies map, the Atlantic has warmed very significantly and arguably even has a positive AMO horseshoe look to it. What a difference a week makes.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#227 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:27 pm

Yeah at least for now the Atlantic has really made progress in warming up. Especially off the coast of the Canary Islands....yikes
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#228 Postby SFLcane » Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:54 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:According to the most recent NOAA Coral Reef Watch sst anomalies map, the Atlantic has warmed very significantly and arguably even has a positive AMO horseshoe look to it. What a difference a week makes.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/830864494091173938/ezgif-7-58bec17353ce.gif


Yeah we'll see what it looks like in June. -NAO for now is definitely helping. We'll see how it evolves
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#229 Postby ClarCari » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:05 am



Link: https://youtu.be/7iDF2GiZmaM
A good discussion about how the St. Vincent volcano’s effects may be negligible at best for the MDR’s SST future, as well as how the expected Super Typhoon in the WPAC may not really allow a cascade to a warmer ENSO as some may hope. I think he does a good job at pointing out the ATL Hurricane season being very above-average is the preferred outcome this season climatologically speaking. (Def not the preferred outcome for human beings who experience the impacts of these storms!)
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#231 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:23 pm


The fact that the ASW just sits there remaining the dominant area of forcing globally is wild. Should that come to fruition another active wave train will be in the cards...
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#232 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:24 am

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950950148087810



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950953306349568




The UKMET shows a rather unfavourable setup over the Atlantic, given the quasi-Niño base state depicted (dry MC, +PDO, warm Gulf of Guinea [-AMO]). That east-based + anomaly over the eastern tropical Pacific would likely induce considerable VWS over the Caribbean and MDR, given its strength, orientation, and position. Had it been west-based, à la Modoki Niño, it would have been more conducive to an active Atlantic on this run. Furthermore, note that the UKMET shows very few landfalls, given the dry Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard. Ad verbatim, this run would be good news if it were to hold true.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#233 Postby ClarCari » Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:51 am

Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950950148087810
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950953306349568

The UKMET shows a rather unfavourable setup over the Atlantic, given the quasi-Niño base state depicted (dry MC, +PDO, warm Gulf of Guinea [-AMO]). That east-based + anomaly over the eastern tropical Pacific would likely induce considerable VWS over the Caribbean and MDR, given its strength, orientation, and position. Had it been west-based, à la Modoki Niño, it would have been more conducive to an active Atlantic on this run. Furthermore, note that the UKMET shows very few landfalls, given the dry Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard. Ad verbatim, this run would be good news if it were to hold true.

Would be good news, but unfortunately I strongly believe the UKMET this time of year to be biased towards warm-ENSO which is typical of a few models during SPB.
I’m actually always skeptical towards any model this time of year that: A. Predicts a warm ENSO following a potent La Niña, and B. Expects the ATL moisture and shear anomalies to flip so negatively with just one year—that combined with a very sudden ENSO flip is very unlikely to happen.
Any other time of year I would take an outlier model seriously but the UKMET and any other few models that miraculously predict unfavorable ATL conditions have barely any substantial data to back up and are on there own and “have some splainin to doooo”.
But meh, they’ll probably go back in line to behaving by next month and recognize the rather ominous favorable ATL conditions forecasted. Models can be as fickle as us humans sometimes. :lol:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#234 Postby SFLcane » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:15 am

Recent CFS forecasts are leaning towards warm ENSO. UKMET would verify if that happens. I doubt we get into El Niño but this current Westpac typhoon will induce a Westerly windburst and Warm neutral would be possible if we can keep getting them. We are due for an El Niño and dead Atlantic but I think it’s more likely in 2022.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#235 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:54 am

ClarCari wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950950148087810
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950953306349568

The UKMET shows a rather unfavourable setup over the Atlantic, given the quasi-Niño base state depicted (dry MC, +PDO, warm Gulf of Guinea [-AMO]). That east-based + anomaly over the eastern tropical Pacific would likely induce considerable VWS over the Caribbean and MDR, given its strength, orientation, and position. Had it been west-based, à la Modoki Niño, it would have been more conducive to an active Atlantic on this run. Furthermore, note that the UKMET shows very few landfalls, given the dry Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard. Ad verbatim, this run would be good news if it were to hold true.

Would be good news, but unfortunately I strongly believe the UKMET this time of year to be biased towards warm-ENSO...

If I recall correctly, the ECMWF and CFSv2 tend to exhibit a warm bias early on, but not the UKMET. The UK is one of the most reliable long-range models in regard to ENSO, so if it shows something it should automatically be considered worthy of attention, though with a critical evaluation as always. Even though a rapid transition from moderate Niña → weak Niño conditions is relatively unusual, it is not unprecedented historically, and there are always exceptions to the rule. We have broken lots of records recently in regard to hyperactivity, so it is about time for things to “break even” and see some anomalies trend bearishly. Obviously, bullish indicators garner significant attention here, but so should “dark-horse” negatives that sneak up from behind, so to speak. Current trends suggest that a substantial WWB is likely to yield another downwelling KW over the next several weeks, along with weakened trades. Warm neutral ENSO tends to feature much lower ACE vs. cool neutral and also sees fewer (M)H landfalls in the Caribbean and on the CONUS, so the current trends should be viewed with cautious optimism, at the very least. Plus, the models that do show warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions indicate that the warmest anomalies should be concentrated in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is the least favourable configuration for an active Atlantic hurricane season, so there is no sign that an upcoming trend toward warm ENSO would favour the Atlantic-friendly Modoki (west-based) signature.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#236 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:51 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950950148087810
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1381950953306349568

The UKMET shows a rather unfavourable setup over the Atlantic, given the quasi-Niño base state depicted (dry MC, +PDO, warm Gulf of Guinea [-AMO]). That east-based + anomaly over the eastern tropical Pacific would likely induce considerable VWS over the Caribbean and MDR, given its strength, orientation, and position. Had it been west-based, à la Modoki Niño, it would have been more conducive to an active Atlantic on this run. Furthermore, note that the UKMET shows very few landfalls, given the dry Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard. Ad verbatim, this run would be good news if it were to hold true.

Would be good news, but unfortunately I strongly believe the UKMET this time of year to be biased towards warm-ENSO...

If I recall correctly, the ECMWF and CFSv2 tend to exhibit a warm bias early on, but not the UKMET. The UK is one of the most reliable long-range models in regard to ENSO, so if it shows something it should automatically be considered worthy of attention, though with a critical evaluation as always. Even though a rapid transition from moderate Niña → weak Niño conditions is relatively unusual, it is not unprecedented historically, and there are always exceptions to the rule. We have broken lots of records recently in regard to hyperactivity, so it is about time for things to “break even” and see some anomalies trend bearishly. Obviously, bullish indicators garner significant attention here, but so should “dark-horse” negatives that sneak up from behind, so to speak. Current trends suggest that a substantial WWB is likely to yield another downwelling KW over the next several weeks, along with weakened trades. Warm neutral ENSO tends to feature much lower ACE vs. cool neutral and also sees fewer (M)H landfalls in the Caribbean and on the CONUS, so the current trends should be viewed with cautious optimism, at the very least. Plus, the models that do show warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions indicate that the warmest anomalies should be concentrated in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is the least favourable configuration for an active Atlantic hurricane season, so there is no sign that an upcoming trend toward warm ENSO would favour the Atlantic-friendly Modoki (west-based) signature.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2008/anomnight.9.8.2008.gif
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.9.9.2005.gif

To be fair though, 2005 and 2008 which were both high impact years for the US had a sst anomaly profile during the peak season where the Nino 1,2 region was anomalously warm. And also whether 2021 will be an "exception" year to the moderate Nina-weak Nino remains to be seen, although I personally still think this is simply a possible prelude to a weak Nino developing in 2022.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#237 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:05 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Would be good news, but unfortunately I strongly believe the UKMET this time of year to be biased towards warm-ENSO...

If I recall correctly, the ECMWF and CFSv2 tend to exhibit a warm bias early on, but not the UKMET. The UK is one of the most reliable long-range models in regard to ENSO, so if it shows something it should automatically be considered worthy of attention, though with a critical evaluation as always. Even though a rapid transition from moderate Niña → weak Niño conditions is relatively unusual, it is not unprecedented historically, and there are always exceptions to the rule. We have broken lots of records recently in regard to hyperactivity, so it is about time for things to “break even” and see some anomalies trend bearishly. Obviously, bullish indicators garner significant attention here, but so should “dark-horse” negatives that sneak up from behind, so to speak. Current trends suggest that a substantial WWB is likely to yield another downwelling KW over the next several weeks, along with weakened trades. Warm neutral ENSO tends to feature much lower ACE vs. cool neutral and also sees fewer (M)H landfalls in the Caribbean and on the CONUS, so the current trends should be viewed with cautious optimism, at the very least. Plus, the models that do show warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions indicate that the warmest anomalies should be concentrated in the eastern tropical Pacific, which is the least favourable configuration for an active Atlantic hurricane season, so there is no sign that an upcoming trend toward warm ENSO would favour the Atlantic-friendly Modoki (west-based) signature.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2008/anomnight.9.8.2008.gif
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.9.9.2005.gif

To be fair though, 2005 and 2008 which were both high impact years for the US had a sst anomaly profile during the peak season where the Nino 1,2 region was anomalously warm.

Personally, I would not rely on single-date “snapshots” to reliably assess SST during the peak months of ASO. Trimonthly averages show that 2005 featured cool neutral ENSO in NINO 1/2. Only 2008 featured a so-called “coastal Niño” in those NINO zones during the same timeframe. Compared to other active seasons, however, 2008 was clearly an exception in regard to its SST configuration in the tropical Pacific. The vast majority of above-average and/or hyperactive seasons, including the “Modoki” year 2004, featured relatively cooler SST over NINO 1/2 and relatively warmer SST farther west, in NINO 3/4. As far as the saying that “it only takes one” is concerned: 1992’s configuration was somewhat similar to 2004’s, with cool NINO 1/2 juxtaposed with warm NINO 3/4. Also, 1992 transitioned out of El Niño into cool neutral ENSO by ASO, so it doesn’t count as an exception to the rule. In general, just about every year that was either above average and/or featured a lot of landfalls exhibited relatively cool SST in NINO 1/2 during ASO. The only possible exception to this rule in recent times, that is, post-1950, that I could recall was 1969. So if 2021 ends up with relatively warm SST in NINO 1/2 during ASO, it will almost certainly end up with much less overall activity, including lower ACE, as well as a reduced risk of hurricane impacts in the Caribbean and on the CONUS.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#238 Postby ClarCari » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:10 am

I just simply see no evidence for warm-neutral conditions let alone weak El Niño for this year. The models during SPB aren’t evidence, but rather “maybeeeees”. I would like to see models become better at navigating through the minefield of SPB as the years go by, but as they stand now, any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest (I guess computers can actually lie to you hahahahaha).
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest and is one of the cases where human users such as us should view it as a dishonest guess, rather than a substantive forecast.

There is just no evidence right now for an unfavorable ATL Hurricane season in 2021. There is some evidence to the opposite however...
SST’s are above normal. -ENSO conditions still prevail in the Pacific even with some westerly activity that I doubt would be enough to overcome trade bursts come June and July.
To expect a sudden switch to unfavorable conditions is, while technically possible, is one of those cases of “believe it when I see it”.

2006 had evidence of a less than average season before it started but since the ENSO in spring that year decided to play Hem-and-Haw until summer/fall, many thought it would be active following 2005.
2021 has far more conducive indicators going in than 2006, so a switch to unfavorable conditions is even less likely than that year.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#239 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:03 am

ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480



OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#240 Postby ClarCari » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:17 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
ClarCari wrote:any model that reflects warm-neutral or anything warmer on the ATL this season is being dishonest
The models that predict any conditions in the ATL (high wind shear, dry moisture, etc,) are again being dishonest...

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480
OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Niña over the WPAC.

Source

It’s not all that uncommon for strong intensification in the WPAC in the early parts of cool-neutral years. Again the SPB period can have huge swings that can “mislead” forecasters into thinking a +ENSO dip is more and more likely and that will impede ATL development, only to bust and the ATL becomes active again.
But besides just the ENSO discussion, alot of the favorable ATL conditions are oftentimes forgotten when these discussions for unfavorable conditions are brought up. I don’t say I “hype” the ATL being active, but I recognize it is equally important to bring up the evidence for an active season in the ATL when these discussions are being had right now, and so far it deeply outweighs evidence for a below-average season.
SPB is tricky, but one of the reasons I think it is more tricky is because I think sometimes it can be easy to forget the favorable conditions in the ATL and look for anything to stop it. Looking for a +ENSO switch each year is one if them but there are others. A week or so ago there were discussions that the St. Vincent volcanic eruption could disrupt the MDR SST’s and now thats there and gone. Not saying those discussions are not interesting, in fact they have some good discussion in them, but if you know what I mean, I think it’s best to actually see something impede the Atlantic rather than think it may and then use that maybe in a forecast before seining the results.
In the long term, warm SST’s have prevailed and the La Niña/cool-nuetral conditions have been potent even to today in the ATL and North America, which is backed by severe and winter weather patterns in recent months being reflective of La Niña patterns. Conditions in other parts of the world can have some indicators to the ATL but they don’t have impacts until they do is a good way of looking at it.
Last edited by ClarCari on Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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