2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3961 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:55 pm

Image[/url]
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3962 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:16 pm

We’ll see what happens for sure down the line, but if recent GEFS ensembles say anything, it’s that this season isn’t going to slip away into the darkness as quietly as we all thought it would have nearly days ago, with possible strong hurricanes in the Caribbean by the end of this month. Just shows you how quickly things in the tropics can change, let alone model support for future systems
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3963 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:This gives me a good chuckle. The GFS shows virtually no tropical cyclone activity from now until the end of October. Could this be the GFS adjusting to an impending CCKW and favorable MJO phase? As they say, the models show nothing until they show something.


In my honest opinion, I do think this may be the case, as whatever the GFS thinks, it does not seem to show anything substantial form in the WPAC and EPAC after Pamela. In fact, mid to end of the month is where the WPAC is literally shown to be a desert for cyclone activity, with no indicated closed level lows with notable low pressures. The EPAC is also pretty dead too. If I recall, even if it was just a few days ago, the GFS showed no Atlantic activity but copious WPAC and EPAC activity, so maybe it is finally realizing the CCKW/MJO progression eastward will inevitably reach the Atlantic basin?


And look at the ensembles now
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3964 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:55 pm

From current season performance and ensemble trends, it seems like 2021 is just 2020 but delayed

  1. 2020 featured its first North Atlantic storm (Arthur) on May 16; 2021 featured it (Ana) on May 22
  2. 2020 featured a burst of activity from late May to early June; 2021 featured it in mid to late June
  3. 2020 featured a rapidly intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane (Hanna) in late July; 2021 featured it in mid August
  4. 2020 featured an active July followed by a less active August; 2021 featured an inactive July followed by a significantly more active August
  5. 2020 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Laura) that formed on August 20; 2021 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Ida) that formed on August 26
  6. 2020 featured an active start to September followed by an inactive end to September; 2021 featured an inactive start to September followed by an active end to September
  7. 2020 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Teddy) from September 12 to September 23; 2021 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Sam) from September 22 to October 5
  8. 2020 featured constant Caribbean activity starting early October; from ensemble guidance trends, it seems like 2021 may feature Caribbean activity starting in about a week (mid to late October)

I am not particularly surprised at any of this; indeed, the first two words when someone looks at the SST anomaly map for this hurricane season will likely be #0LY $#!T.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3965 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:06 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:From current season performance and ensemble trends, it seems like 2021 is just 2020 but delayed

  1. 2020 featured its first North Atlantic storm (Arthur) on May 16; 2021 featured it (Ana) on May 22
  2. 2020 featured a burst of activity from late May to early June; 2021 featured it in mid to late June
  3. 2020 featured a rapidly intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane (Hanna) in late July; 2021 featured it in mid August
  4. 2020 featured an active July followed by a less active August; 2021 featured an inactive July followed by a significantly more active August
  5. 2020 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Laura) that formed on August 20; 2021 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Ida) that formed on August 26
  6. 2020 featured an active start to September followed by an inactive end to September; 2021 featured an inactive start to September followed by an active end to September
  7. 2020 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Teddy) from September 12 to September 23; 2021 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Sam) from September 22 to October 5
  8. 2020 featured constant Caribbean activity starting early October; from ensemble guidance trends, it seems like 2021 may feature Caribbean activity starting in about a week (mid to late October)

I am not particularly surprised at any of this; indeed, the first two words when someone looks at the SST anomaly map for this hurricane season will likely be #0LY $#!T.

While we could see some Caribbean activity later this month, I don't think it will be "2020 but delayed." Maybe a storm or two down there. 2020 did have a lull after Teddy, but this lull will likely be longer than that one.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3966 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:37 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:From current season performance and ensemble trends, it seems like 2021 is just 2020 but delayed

  1. 2020 featured its first North Atlantic storm (Arthur) on May 16; 2021 featured it (Ana) on May 22
  2. 2020 featured a burst of activity from late May to early June; 2021 featured it in mid to late June
  3. 2020 featured a rapidly intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane (Hanna) in late July; 2021 featured it in mid August
  4. 2020 featured an active July followed by a less active August; 2021 featured an inactive July followed by a significantly more active August
  5. 2020 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Laura) that formed on August 20; 2021 featured a Category IV hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana (Ida) that formed on August 26
  6. 2020 featured an active start to September followed by an inactive end to September; 2021 featured an inactive start to September followed by an active end to September
  7. 2020 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Teddy) from September 12 to September 23; 2021 featured a long-track Cape Verde hurricane (Sam) from September 22 to October 5
  8. 2020 featured constant Caribbean activity starting early October; from ensemble guidance trends, it seems like 2021 may feature Caribbean activity starting in about a week (mid to late October)

I am not particularly surprised at any of this; indeed, the first two words when someone looks at the SST anomaly map for this hurricane season will likely be #0LY $#!T.

This list seems like a stretch.

August is always active for GOM so RI'ing Grace and Ida is expected for an above average season.

Every season tends to have periods of activity and lull nothing new in that imo.

A long running OTS CV storm isn't anything new as well.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3967 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:41 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3968 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:57 am

Well it is official, we are in a La Niña state now. We’ll see what occurs but that alone should serve as a sign that chances of heightened WPAC/EPAC activity late season will not likely occur but a positive sign for Atlantic activity late season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3969 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:44 pm

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 14 – OCTOBER 27, 2021

We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two
weeks is normal (60%), with above-normal and below-normal both assigned a 20%
chance of occurring, respectively.
Image



5) Seasonal Forecast

The most recent seasonal forecast called for an active season. We believe that the next
two weeks are most likely to generate near-normal levels of Atlantic hurricane activity,
given the current relatively unfavorable sub-seasonal conditions and the paucity of TCs
developed by the global models for at least the next ten days.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3970 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:49 pm

Spacecoast wrote:COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 14 – OCTOBER 27, 2021

We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two
weeks is normal (60%), with above-normal and below-normal both assigned a 20%
chance of occurring, respectively.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/2hyhh7d/frcsta.jpg [/url]



5) Seasonal Forecast

The most recent seasonal forecast called for an active season. We believe that the next
two weeks are most likely to generate near-normal levels of Atlantic hurricane activity,
given the current relatively unfavorable sub-seasonal conditions and the paucity of TCs
developed by the global models for at least the next ten days.

Does that graphic show the possibility of the MJO skipping over Phases 7/8 and entering Phases 1/2 for the last 10 days of October into early November?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3971 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:50 pm

Spacecoast wrote:COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM OCTOBER 14 – OCTOBER 27, 2021

We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two
weeks is normal (60%), with above-normal and below-normal both assigned a 20%
chance of occurring, respectively.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/2hyhh7d/frcsta.jpg [/url]



5) Seasonal Forecast

The most recent seasonal forecast called for an active season. We believe that the next
two weeks are most likely to generate near-normal levels of Atlantic hurricane activity,
given the current relatively unfavorable sub-seasonal conditions and the paucity of TCs
developed by the global models for at least the next ten days.


Global models have seemed to suggest that WPAC, EPAC, and Atlantic activity the next weeks will be rather quiet, that’s just odd if you ask me. I personally think one basin will eventually take over (that being the Atlantic), at least logic and convention would dictate that
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3972 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:00 pm

In case you are wondering, we are currently in Phase VII of the MJO, which is exactly why activity has been dead for a while; it is not surprising to see lulls in the late season even for La Niñas. A similar thing happened in July. Phases I to IV are favorable for the North Atlantic; Phases V to VIII are unfavorable for the North Atlantic. A favorable MJO phase (Phase I) will probably return shortly; the MJO so far has been very high-amplitude this year, so instead of going into the null phase, it would probably wrap around the null phase circle into Phase I. As to why the MJO has been high-amplitude this year, that I cannot explain.

]Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3973 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:09 pm

The Euro has trended away from bringing the MJO into the Western Hemisphere, at least through October. It and the CFS have not been performing too well lately. ATM most models keep it in the circle through the end of the month, may reemerge in November.
GFS:
Image

Euro:
Image

CFS:
Image

JMA:
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3974 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:The Euro has trended away from bringing the MJO into the Western Hemisphere, at least through October. It and the CFS have not been performing too well lately. ATM most models keep it in the circle through the end of the month, may reemerge in November.
GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/qRzyCP6.png

Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/pwA8s20.png

CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/rokKb7K.png

JMA:
https://i.imgur.com/uvqrhAN.png

Maybe the MJO being stuck in the middle and not really favoring any basin is why the models are dead worldwide for the next two weeks. However, some of those graphics there do get the MJO into Phase 1 later in the month. That might coincide with the wave that’ll be at the Lesser Antilles on Oct22/23.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3975 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:59 pm

It's increasingly evident that globally this has been a very MJO-dependent year, and I'm curious as to what background state that we've missed led to it.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3976 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:47 pm

Hammy wrote:It's increasingly evident that globally this has been a very MJO-dependent year, and I'm curious as to what background state that we've missed led to it.

Maybe it has to do with the specific magnitude and progression of the newly developed La Niña. Regardless, this final MJO/CCKW pulse will likely be the last burst of activity in the Atlantic, seeing how it’s been so dependent on the MJO and climo is only going downhill from here. Or maybe there’s another enhanced phase later in November and we see a weird very late season storm like Otto.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3977 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:39 am

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3978 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:51 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1448711837562781697




This is something you don't see every year. Given it is October, I would be very surprised if no major, potent cyclone in any basin worldwide forms during this month; that would be beyond mind-boggling. My guess is given the La Nina state and above average sst anomalies in the western part of the basin the Atlantic would have a very good chance to produce something significant even if it is by the month's end, and of course the WPAC is able to crank up super typhoons even during La Nina years (Zeb, Goni, Megi, etc.). But it is strange to see how all three major NH basins this year have been very MJO-dependent as hammy explained; I am guessing the amplitude has something to do with it, but why it has had a greater amplitude this year than others I do not know.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3979 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:42 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1448711837562781697

This is something you don't see every year. Given it is October, I would be very surprised if no major, potent cyclone in any basin worldwide forms during this month; that would be beyond mind-boggling. My guess is given the La Nina state and above average sst anomalies in the western part of the basin the Atlantic would have a very good chance to produce something significant even if it is by the month's end, and of course the WPAC is able to crank up super typhoons even during La Nina years (Zeb, Goni, Megi, etc.). But it is strange to see how all three major NH basins this year have been very MJO-dependent as hammy explained; I am guessing the amplitude has something to do with it, but why it has had a greater amplitude this year than others I do not know.

The GFS is starting to show a possible big system in the WPac forming next weekend, around the same time the wave enters the Caribbean and has the potential to develop in the Atlantic. Maybe we’ll end up with another WPac-Atlantic pair of strong storms.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3980 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:30 am

The CONUS is very lucky that it only got one hurricane landfall this year, instead of multiple like 2020 and 2017. Unfortunately, Ida was like two hurricanes rolled into one — Laura with its 130kt Louisiana landfall and Irene with its significant Mid-Atlantic/NE flooding, and was twice as costly as both storms combined. As they say, it only takes one.
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