2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[ElectricStorm]

Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying.

I may not be the best person to ask given I am no professional met but rather a 19-year old wx geek who started closely tracking hurricanes in 2018, but what I have heard 2017 started off with a pretty OTS signal but ended up being a devastating landfall year. Of course, 2017 was also expected to be an El Nino year, which do tend to favor OTS tracks. However, then you have La Nina years like 2010 or 2011 where many storms are OTS

I remember there was a period last year that people were talking about a lot of OTS tracks and uh... That didn't happen

[chaser1]

Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying.

Fantastic question and one that I would love to have further explored. I personally have put greater thought into this topic each pre-season and would be interesting if some prior season predictions verified (or busted). This would be a bit time consuming but something I may take some time to do going back and reading some prior year threads.

[Category5Kaiju]

To be fair, the bottomline is that in the "typical" busy season, you should expect to have some storms that go OTS and some storms that make landfall. Also, since the GoM, Caribbean, and West Atlantic that are near land tend to have the highest skin ssts as well as the most profound UOHC compared to the rest of the ocean (well, Lorenzo is the one exception I can think of), Cat 5s are always going to be a possible land hazard every season in this vicinity.

[Dylan]

Just some food for thought...

Looking back at global SSTA pattern since warm AMO started in 1995, I think a blend of 1999, 2000, and 2001 look like the best analogs when comparing to today’s global SSTA pattern.

Top similarities include a generally warm than average Atlantic, along with -PDO & La Niña/Cool-ENSO signature in the Pacific.

Differences: Overall global SSTA pattern generally looks warmer.

1999/2000/2001 Mean Atlantic Hurricane Activity:

TS: 14
H: 8.3
MH: 4
ACE: 135.3

[toad strangler]

Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying.

I disregard all track discussion this far out.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1378749756185395206




Eric Webb also mentioned that for cool-neutral/La Nina to prevail this upcoming hurricane season, it will be important for the tropics to warm up over the Atlantic. It would help keep the rising branch of the Walker circulation over the Atlantic vs. the EPAC.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1378749756185395206/

Eric Webb also mentioned that for cool-neutral/La Nina to prevail this upcoming hurricane season, it will be important for the tropics to warm up over the Atlantic. It would help keep the rising branch of the Walker circulation over the Atlantic vs. the EPAC.

If prior years are anything to go by the West African Monsoon should help with this as the season draws closer, but we'll see.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Fully expect the MDR to be at or slightly above average by the time the season starts. We've seen the last couple of years doesn't take long for this area to warm up.

[Shell Mound]

Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate?

Yes. Aside from the Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands, the March 2017 NMME correctly showed + precipitation over the Gulf, Florida, and the Sargasso Sea (SW Atlantic) during ASO ‘17, along with hints of relatively higher (average to slightly above) precipitation over the MDR in the same region that featured the genesis of Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria. Additionally, the combined runs of the NMME/EC/UKMET in April 2020 were largely “spot on” in regard to activity during the peak of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. So these long-range models do show some skill even five to six months beforehand.




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1333425301158694912

[Shell Mound]

Bad news: the April ‘21 NMME shows a very active MDR with long-tracking systems heading into the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and FL, à la 2017:




Also, note that the overall Walker circulation still seems to remain in Niña mode (especially the dry C/WPAC + wet MC). A threatening signature.

[cycloneye]

I see Caribbean dry for ASO.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1380155465863208971




Neat little tweet from Hazelton discussing the most recent NMME run.

[aspen]

If those moisture forecasts stick and don’t change once the SPB passes, it’s looking like 2021 will be far less of a “close-to-home” year than 2020, and the bulk of its strongest storms could be out in the open Atlantic or near the northern Caribbean due to a general moist MDR and a strong Africa rising branch. In other words, more of a 2010/2011/2017 type year in terms of where the strongest storms form and go.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This appears to be a major factor in why the CSU went high with the forecast they released today.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1380172586072600583

[Category5Kaiju]

Just saying, but according to CSU, 2021 is exhibiting traits similar to a hybrid of 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2017. Two of those seasons were hyperactive (with 2008 pretty darn close), and to be honest I do think that this season has the potential to be an ACE-dumper.

[Category5Kaiju]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Is there a specific reason why you think that to be the case? Just curious of course

[Iceresistance]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Is there a specific reason why you think that to be the case? Just curious of course

An expected La Nina failed to develop & El Nino-like conditions were present in the Atlantic . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Is there a specific reason why you think that to be the case? Just curious of course

An expected La Nina failed to develop & El Nino-like conditions were present in the Atlantic . . .

It was a lot more than that though... A lot more complicated factors than just ENSO. A combination of everything that caused 2013 to do what it did is probably not going to happen for a very long time...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. Let's return to discuss about the 2021 indicators, thank you.

[SFLcane]

So much for that cool MDR and Atlantic. If this comes to pass some of those seasonal predictions could be on the low side.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1380532200240734210