2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4161 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:50 pm

From the CPC:
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4162 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:03 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
tolakram wrote:I don't think it's really that big of a deal. ENSO, shear, MJO, water temps, kelvin waves, these are all modifiers for chance of development and strength of storms, but there are still plenty of variables that, when missing, reduce development chances by an unknown amount.

Every season is different for a reason, and sometimes those reasons are not known in advance. If we end up with a super active November we might look back at this and put more stock into the idea of a delayed season rather than one that mysteriously shut down. If not, then perhaps the Atlantic nino, which I had never heard of until this year, might be to blame.

Could easily see a pattern change in November allowing more activity. Regardless, the October lull is interesting and rare for a year like 2021. May be worth looking back in post with better data. The late developing La Nina, long lasting Atlantic Nino, low latitude ridging, and persistent upper trough all may have played some role.

2007 keeps cropping up as an analog:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1453093102822912004

The combo of these features together to limit activity in the Atlantic and allow for landfalling EPac hurricanes — the opposite of what the ENSO state would suggest — has been extremely unusual and uncharacteristic of this recent active stretch since 2016. Could just be a rare alignment, or it could be a sign of a changing background state.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4163 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:11 pm

Whatever happens going forward, looks like we’re going to need to do a great deal of retrospective study on why this year’s late season has so far featured 0 NSs (not to mention global inactivity earlier this month)

Also worth noting we have yet to see a major strength cyclone anywhere in the world since very early this month.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4164 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:28 pm

The CFSv2 and EPS are showing strong -VP signals over the Indian Ocean into mid-November, which favors the Atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4165 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:59 pm

Hypothetically speaking, if we get no NSs from here on out, imagine how short the annual NOAA hurricane season timelapse video would be when it comes out later this year or next :lol:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4167 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:28 am

So here's my hypothesis: combining the late season conditions akin to 2007 with a lingering, potent Atlantic Nino that favors low latitude waves, and you get a recipe for nothing to be able to form in the deep tropics. What we are seeing now is also somewhat reminding me of what I found to be an interesting reveal on (I think?) a post from last year from WeatherTiger, which said that in general, high ACE-scoring and destructive, strong hurricane featuring seasons tend to be cool neutral or weak La Nina seasons. If a La Nina becomes moderate or strong, apparently for reasons I am personally not aware of, the Atlantic does not become as favorable as it would be in a weak La Nina or cool neutral ENSO state.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4168 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:16 pm

Thankfully indicators of a potentially active east coast of CONUS season as well as an active season for Florida landfalls particularly late season did not pan out barring some surprise in November. Things have certainly not acted like a La Niña.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4169 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 28, 2021 5:50 pm

:uarrow: Not all La Nina's behave the same for the Atlantic. However they almost guarantee an uptick in TC activity and ACE. Increased TCs means increased chances of a landfall somewhere.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4170 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:37 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1453829028389875731




This is remarkable. This just shows how the WPAC and EPAC have behaved as expected for a La Nina as none of the basins had majors in October, but the Atlantic has been behaving as if it were an El Nino. And 1977 was an El Nino year while 1978 was cool neutral. I honestly have no idea what is going on, this La Nina is behaving like a La Nina, but at the same time it is not.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4171 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:09 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1453829028389875731

This is remarkable. This just shows how the WPAC and EPAC have behaved as expected for a La Nina as none of the basins had majors in October, but the Atlantic has been behaving as if it were an El Nino. And 1977 was an El Nino year while 1978 was cool neutral. I honestly have no idea what is going on, this La Nina is behaving like a La Nina, but at the same time it is not.


I don't know what to say either, but I've been thinking of this:
If 2020 was absolutely insane with Tropical Cyclones all over the world, then 2021 would be the flip side of 2020, literally.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4172 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:35 pm

I've been thinking that this Years Double Dip La Nina is a Modoki La Nina given the current trends in the Atlantic Basin
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4173 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:20 am

Image

Image

What if...just what if...November actually ends up more active than October, and we actually manage to reach the aux list next month? Imho there's a decent possibility that the predictions calling for us to be unable to go into the aux list, let alone reach another NS, will be challenged in the next several days to weeks.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4174 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:00 pm

Really following the 1981 template--Major hurricane with a second storm (this time a TS rather than depression) in late September, carrying into October, then nothing at all until the very end of the month when we get a subtropical storm.

The question now, is do we see anything in the Caribbean, or is the storm that follows this the wave off of Africa.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4175 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 30, 2021 10:47 pm

Yeah, the idea of seeing 0 NSs in a La Nina, +AMO year during October-November (without any major global volcanic activity influence) seemed a bit of a stretch; I was always expecting Wanda to form (although not this late in the calendar year of course).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4176 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:20 am

Global activity has picked up over the last week or so: Rick in the EPac, Malou in the WPac, Apollo in the Mediterranean, what was likely a TS in the SWIO, and finally Wanda in the Atlantic. Models suggest at least one more storm could form in the Atlantic and/or EPac in the next week (besides 95L).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4177 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:37 am

With the formation of Subtropical Storm Wanda, the lull of activity is officially over because a bona fide La Niña pattern is present. It took a while for a La Niña pattern to settle, but it has. Mike Ventrice forecasts a La Niña pattern to continue into mid-November, and the JMA forecasts the pattern to continue throughout the month of November. The lack of activity in the Atlantic was purely a result of the Madden-Julian Oscillation being in unfavorable phases. The GFS forecasts Caribbean development around November 5, East Coast development around November 7, Gulf of Mexico development around November 8, more subtropical development on November 13, and development near the Iberian Peninsula on November 14. The CMC tells a similar tale.

Image
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4178 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:53 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:With the formation of Subtropical Storm Wanda, the lull of activity is officially over because a bona fide La Niña pattern is present. It took a while for a La Niña pattern to settle, but it has. Mike Ventrice forecasts a La Niña pattern to continue into mid-November, and the JMA forecasts the pattern to continue throughout the month of November. The lack of activity in the Atlantic was purely a result of the Madden-Julian Oscillation being in unfavorable phases. The GFS forecasts Caribbean development around November 5, East Coast development around November 7, Gulf of Mexico development around November 8, more subtropical development on November 13, and development near the Iberian Peninsula on November 14. The CMC tells a similar tale.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPNqMMVG/twc-globe-mjo-vp200.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Vkyk5zG4/Y202110-D2712-gl0.png


I disagree, I think there was more to it otherwise what happened wouldn't be so rare.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4179 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:24 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1454949062956904448




Ok, I am now officially very confused.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4180 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:01 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1454949062956904448

Ok, I am now officially very confused.


Okkkkaayyyyyy what? Yeah something is definitely up.
Just my thoughts but...this may have something to do with it.
Image

Notice how the anomalous warmth is primarily focused in the subtropics, robbing the deep tropics of instability globally. This is something that I know has been talked about for the last couple years but I think this year really hammers in the point that with the subtropics warming, global tropical activity patterns could be changing and may already be changing. Notice how the only tropical entity on the entire globe is in the subtropical Atlantic. This may prove the point, all though we need more extensive research to prove that this is happening...and more time.
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