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CyclonicFury wrote:I'd argue 2021 has the most impressive Cabo Verde season since 2017. So far the MDR has featured three hurricanes (Elsa, Larry and Sam), with Larry and Sam becoming major hurricanes. Sam is likely to become a Category 4. So far, Elsa was the only one to impact the Lesser Antilles and CONUS, though impacts were relatively minor. I don't think we can conclude this year that the MDR was unfavorable or lackluster. I feel like the hostile state of the MDR gets exaggerated every year; every year since 2017 has had at least one CV major.
There are some that skew reality of what the MDR really is. And that is NOT a perpetual TC pezz dispenser
Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
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Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
I can see this, but 2021 is prolly gonna outperform 1995 at this rate tbh ngl.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
I can see this, but 2021 is prolly gonna outperform 1995 at this rate tbh ngl.
Oh yeah I know, I'm just saying so far those are the vibes I am getting. Or a 2010 or 2011 redux except with a cluster of bad land-impacting hurricanes as well
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Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
I can see this, but 2021 is prolly gonna outperform 1995 at this rate tbh ngl.
Oh yeah I know, I'm just saying so far those are the vibes I am getting. Or a 2010 or 2011 redux except with a cluster of bad land-impacting hurricanes as well
Perhaps you could say a more west-based version of 2010.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
I can see this, but 2021 is prolly gonna outperform 1995 at this rate tbh ngl.
I don't think 2021 will catch up with 1995's 228 ACE (even 2017 failed to beat that), but the TS-H-MH counts might be higher. 1995 finished at 19-11-5 while 2021 is currently at 19-7-4.
Edit: 1995 already had an insane 175.694 ACE on this date (between Marilyn and Noel). Luis alone generated 53.9 ACE, and Felix, Humberto, Iris and Marilyn were all 20+ ACE producers too.
Last edited by Teban54 on Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Tbh this season is really reminding me of 1995; a season with primarily two clusters of powerful hurricane tracks, with the MDR trackers usually staying OTS and the West Atlantic trackers developing close to land and inflicting bad land impacts.
I can see this, but 2021 is prolly gonna outperform 1995 at this rate tbh ngl.
I don't think 2021 will catch up with 1995's 228 ACE (even 2017 failed to beat that), but the TS-H-MH counts might be higher. 1995 finished at 19-11-5 while 2021 is currently at 19-7-4.
Yea, I can see that. 2021 would most likely have a lower ACE but in terms of numbers, yeah. Will outperform 1995. I'm thinking something like 26-11-6.
So we now have a solid Category 4 in the MDR that will also likely go on to rack tons of ACE; remember all of that talk earlier this month about September underperforming and an unexpected turn down in activity that would cause 2021 to be below average?
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Category5Kaiju wrote:So we now have a solid Category 4 in the MDR that will also likely go on to rack tons of ACE; remember all of that talk earlier this month about September underperforming and an unexpected turn down in activity that would cause 2021 to be below average?
Just finished looking at some ACE stats and we are just above normal as of right now. Sam is going to be around for another 8 days at least so should get us over 100 units of ACE, as right now we are at around 89 I do believe. This time last year we were at around 98 units of ACE so we are lagging behind 2020 but perhaps not for long depending on what Sam does. I am very doubtful we make it near the hyperactive cut at this point despite Sam, as we would need quite a few majors or long trackers in the Atlantic to get there and since it is the end of September....have a hard time seeing that happen. No way in heck October and November this year are going to be nearly as busy as last year which is why I do not think a hyperactive final outcome is in the cards at this point in terms of ACE.
Of course this does not alleviate the fact that it has been one heck of a season thus far with Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas and now Sam. ACE doesn't really mean much at the end of the day, it's just another number system we have made up to quantify something scientifically, we all know this by now.
WiscoWx02 wrote:Just finished looking at some ACE stats and we are just above normal as of right now. Sam is going to be around for another 8 days at least so should get us over 100 units of ACE, as right now we are at around 89 I do believe. This time last year we were at around 98 units of ACE so we are lagging behind 2020 but perhaps not for long depending on what Sam does. I am very doubtful we make it near the hyperactive cut at this point despite Sam, as we would need quite a few majors or long trackers in the Atlantic to get there and since it is the end of September....have a hard time seeing that happen. No way in heck October and November this year are going to be nearly as busy as last year which is why I do not think a hyperactive final outcome is in the cards at this point in terms of ACE.
Of course this does not alleviate the fact that it has been one heck of a season thus far with Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas and now Sam. ACE doesn't really mean much at the end of the day, it's just another number system we have made up to quantify something scientifically, we all know this by now.
Interestingly, all of those years were hyperactive. I personally still think this year's October and November, while not as crazy as last year, could still put in quite a bit of quality; if history says anything, it is that 2021 is in an elite league given the number of NSs that are forming as well as how it has already generated 4 MHs (feats that not many seasons have collectively been able to do in the past). In my personal opinion, I do think hyperactivity is still on the table; maybe not like 200+ ACE, but 160-199 ACE is what I think can very well happen. Plus, every season since 1995 to feature at least 5 major hurricanes was operationally a hyperactive year (2008, while not considered as hyperactive, fell very short of the line)
*edit: even looking back since 1851, only two hurricane seasons that had at least 5 major hurricanes ended as only above average: 1916 and 2008. Both had 145 ACE, so had they had one or two slightly more long-lived systems, they would have easily been hyperactive years.
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WiscoWx02 wrote:Just finished looking at some ACE stats and we are just above normal as of right now. Sam is going to be around for another 8 days at least so should get us over 100 units of ACE, as right now we are at around 89 I do believe. This time last year we were at around 98 units of ACE so we are lagging behind 2020 but perhaps not for long depending on what Sam does. I am very doubtful we make it near the hyperactive cut at this point despite Sam, as we would need quite a few majors or long trackers in the Atlantic to get there and since it is the end of September....have a hard time seeing that happen. No way in heck October and November this year are going to be nearly as busy as last year which is why I do not think a hyperactive final outcome is in the cards at this point in terms of ACE.
Of course this does not alleviate the fact that it has been one heck of a season thus far with Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas and now Sam. ACE doesn't really mean much at the end of the day, it's just another number system we have made up to quantify something scientifically, we all know this by now.
Interestingly, all of those years were hyperactive. I personally still think this year's October and November, while not as crazy as last year, could still put in quite a bit of quality; if history says anything, it is that 2021 is in an elite league given the number of NSs that are forming as well as how it has already generated 4 MHs (feats that not many seasons have collectively been able to do in the past). In my personal opinion, I do think hyperactivity is still on the table; maybe not like 200+ ACE, but 160-199 ACE is what I think can very well happen. Plus, every season since 1995 to feature at least 5 major hurricanes was operationally a hyperactive year (2008, while not considered as hyperactive, fell very short of the line)
*edit: even looking back since 1851, only two hurricane seasons that had at least 5 major hurricanes ended as only above average: 1916 and 2008. Both had 145 ACE, so had they had one or two slightly more long-lived systems, they would have easily been hyperactive years.
Well, you got me there Watch us have a long tracker in mid October or into November through the Caribbean Sea that just blows logic out of the water because honestly....I am not convinced we have seen the weirdest occurrence of this season yet. Maybe we get a category 3 in December or something who knows. I guess looking at SSTA's right now...definitely not the configuration that drops the hurricane season end of September like other years. What is the actual ACE threshold for hyperactive? Isn't it 180 units or is it 150 units?
WiscoWx02 wrote:Just finished looking at some ACE stats and we are just above normal as of right now. Sam is going to be around for another 8 days at least so should get us over 100 units of ACE, as right now we are at around 89 I do believe. This time last year we were at around 98 units of ACE so we are lagging behind 2020 but perhaps not for long depending on what Sam does. I am very doubtful we make it near the hyperactive cut at this point despite Sam, as we would need quite a few majors or long trackers in the Atlantic to get there and since it is the end of September....have a hard time seeing that happen. No way in heck October and November this year are going to be nearly as busy as last year which is why I do not think a hyperactive final outcome is in the cards at this point in terms of ACE.
Of course this does not alleviate the fact that it has been one heck of a season thus far with Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas and now Sam. ACE doesn't really mean much at the end of the day, it's just another number system we have made up to quantify something scientifically, we all know this by now.
Interestingly, all of those years were hyperactive. I personally still think this year's October and November, while not as crazy as last year, could still put in quite a bit of quality; if history says anything, it is that 2021 is in an elite league given the number of NSs that are forming as well as how it has already generated 4 MHs (feats that not many seasons have collectively been able to do in the past). In my personal opinion, I do think hyperactivity is still on the table; maybe not like 200+ ACE, but 160-199 ACE is what I think can very well happen. Plus, every season since 1995 to feature at least 5 major hurricanes was operationally a hyperactive year (2008, while not considered as hyperactive, fell very short of the line)
*edit: even looking back since 1851, only two hurricane seasons that had at least 5 major hurricanes ended as only above average: 1916 and 2008. Both had 145 ACE, so had they had one or two slightly more long-lived systems, they would have easily been hyperactive years.
Well, you got me there Watch us have a long tracker in mid October or into November through the Caribbean Sea that just blows logic out of the water because honestly....I am not convinced we have seen the weirdest occurrence of this season yet. Maybe we get a category 3 in December or something who knows. I guess looking at SSTA's right now...definitely not the configuration that drops the hurricane season end of September like other years. What is the actual ACE threshold for hyperactive? Isn't it 180 units or is it 150 units?
The current ACE threshold for hyperactivity, as defined by NOAA, is 159.6 (165% of the 1951-2020 median). More information here.
Interestingly, all of those years were hyperactive. I personally still think this year's October and November, while not as crazy as last year, could still put in quite a bit of quality; if history says anything, it is that 2021 is in an elite league given the number of NSs that are forming as well as how it has already generated 4 MHs (feats that not many seasons have collectively been able to do in the past). In my personal opinion, I do think hyperactivity is still on the table; maybe not like 200+ ACE, but 160-199 ACE is what I think can very well happen. Plus, every season since 1995 to feature at least 5 major hurricanes was operationally a hyperactive year (2008, while not considered as hyperactive, fell very short of the line)
*edit: even looking back since 1851, only two hurricane seasons that had at least 5 major hurricanes ended as only above average: 1916 and 2008. Both had 145 ACE, so had they had one or two slightly more long-lived systems, they would have easily been hyperactive years.
Well, you got me there Watch us have a long tracker in mid October or into November through the Caribbean Sea that just blows logic out of the water because honestly....I am not convinced we have seen the weirdest occurrence of this season yet. Maybe we get a category 3 in December or something who knows. I guess looking at SSTA's right now...definitely not the configuration that drops the hurricane season end of September like other years. What is the actual ACE threshold for hyperactive? Isn't it 180 units or is it 150 units?
The current ACE threshold for hyperactivity, as defined by NOAA, is 159.6 (165% of the 1951-2020 median). More information here.
Thanks for the info! Have never known the actual number until now. Man now when I stop and think...we are already at 86 units roughly now which is over halfway to 159 and we haven't factored in Sam yet in it's entirety and then whatever happens in October, November and December yet. Gonna be a close race I think, but it seems more possible when I think about it like that.
So glad those steering pattern and precip anomalies maps have not verified as yet... 2021 is perfect example how these maps must be taken for verbatim... A lot more factors are at play than those maps... Personally I never like to look at long range precip anomaly. I prefer to look at the short term percip maps (like 2 weeks) - those give hints
Category5Kaiju wrote:So we now have a solid Category 4 in the MDR that will also likely go on to rack tons of ACE; remember all of that talk earlier this month about September underperforming and an unexpected turn down in activity that would cause 2021 to be below average?
I was guilty of this lol. The MDR just seemed quite unfavorable for a stretch until it suddenly wasn’t.
Category5Kaiju wrote:So we now have a solid Category 4 in the MDR that will also likely go on to rack tons of ACE; remember all of that talk earlier this month about September underperforming and an unexpected turn down in activity that would cause 2021 to be below average?
It was underperforming when the talk was going on.
Mid-September was one of the most lackluster as far as active seasons go, and sort of a more active version of 1996, which was flanked by a single major hurricane at each end with literally nothing (not even so much as a depression) between.
2021 has certainly shown, however, that it's no 2007 as far as the open Atlantic goes.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Please stay on topic I, and apparently another mod, removed a couple of posts. Don't clutter this thread with junk please.
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What I am presonally curious to see is if the easternmost AOI in the MDR stays intact and traverses to the WCAR (with the hints of the WCAR system as some ensembles have shown being the same system as that AOI) or if a completely new entity develops in the WCAR
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
