2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4021 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:26 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1449470310932090882

Ok, now this is just weird. Perhaps the root reason why we are seeing with the dead Atlantic, whatever it is, is also causing the WPAC and EPAC to be relative weak and inactive? Something tells me that the MJO progression may not be to entirely blame given if that were the case then all of that rising motion in the WPAC should have been capable of allowing the basin to produce some decent storms and activity (but it did not).


More dry air & higher Wind Shear around the world than usual?


It is a combination of conflicting factors: -ENSO and -PDO, which would typically support the Atlantic, but +RMM2, which hinders development in the Atlantic. Once the RMM2 goes into the negatives, the Atlantic will likely see development, especially with -ENSO and -PDO.


I hesitate to blame the MJO for the lengthy quiet periods--usually something can still develop, but it seems right now the Atlantic is incapable of producing anything without a favorable MJO. But it's a mystery to me exactly what is going on in the background leading to this.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4022 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:59 pm

What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4023 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:49 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.


2004 was a Modoki El Nino if I remember correctly, and had practically nonstop, intense activity for the two peak months and largely nothing outside of that. The quiet period in August 2019 wasn't really atypical either--active years like 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, and 2010 had little to nothing before the middle of the month, most of those having absolutely nothing--in fact 1999 was storm free from June 18 to August 18.

While 2019 underperformed in terms of hurricane numbers, storms still developed on a largely consistent basis through the season once it got going, even into October, and the MDR was mostly held in check for the first half of September by higher than normal amounts of SAL, and (similar to what happened in 2020) the monsoon trough being too far north, allowing storms to recurve early over cooler water.

Something strange seems to be going on this year given how mostly dead the global tropics have been the last several weeks, and how MJO-dependent activity has been. The Atlantic honestly looks like mid-November on satellite, dominated by cold fronts reaching down to 20-25N and a southward-positioned ITCZ, with most of the Caribbean convection being over Panama rather than favorable waters. Even 2013 had managed to spin up a storm in the first half of October.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4024 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:45 am

Hammy wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
More dry air & higher Wind Shear around the world than usual?


It is a combination of conflicting factors: -ENSO and -PDO, which would typically support the Atlantic, but +RMM2, which hinders development in the Atlantic. Once the RMM2 goes into the negatives, the Atlantic will likely see development, especially with -ENSO and -PDO.


I hesitate to blame the MJO for the lengthy quiet periods--usually something can still develop, but it seems right now the Atlantic is incapable of producing anything without a favorable MJO. But it's a mystery to me exactly what is going on in the background leading to this.


That was the case this entire year. Thinking back to July, the MJO was in an unfavorable phase. When the MJO transitioned into Phase I, there was development. The same thing could happen with October; come Phase I, there may be development.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4025 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:16 am

Hammy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.


2004 was a Modoki El Nino if I remember correctly, and had practically nonstop, intense activity for the two peak months and largely nothing outside of that. The quiet period in August 2019 wasn't really atypical either--active years like 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, and 2010 had little to nothing before the middle of the month, most of those having absolutely nothing--in fact 1999 was storm free from June 18 to August 18.

While 2019 underperformed in terms of hurricane numbers, storms still developed on a largely consistent basis through the season once it got going, even into October, and the MDR was mostly held in check for the first half of September by higher than normal amounts of SAL, and (similar to what happened in 2020) the monsoon trough being too far north, allowing storms to recurve early over cooler water.

Something strange seems to be going on this year given how mostly dead the global tropics have been the last several weeks, and how MJO-dependent activity has been. The Atlantic honestly looks like mid-November on satellite, dominated by cold fronts reaching down to 20-25N and a southward-positioned ITCZ, with most of the Caribbean convection being over Panama rather than favorable waters. Even 2013 had managed to spin up a storm in the first half of October.


For the GFS at least I checked the forecast bulk shear anomalies in both the EPAC and Atlantic, and oddly enough the EPAC is expected to remain mostly in very high shear (particularly the west part of the basin, which is La Nina-like) while the open Atlantic and Gulf is also mostly sheared, with some parts of the basin even reaching 90 knots of shear (is that even, like possible?) Then by the month's end there is a drastic lowering of shear in the Caribbean, so yeah idk. Still thinking we'll see at least something form there late this month, but if not, then I definitely think we're going to need to try to study what the heck exactly happened this year so in future hurricane seasons we know what to look for and what to not look for especially in terms of activity late season in a moderate La Nina year. If we get no significant activity until November 30, then I honestly would be even more confused than the entire 2013 season alone :D
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4026 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:08 am

The MJO might skip SEVERAL phases before starting at Phase 1 towards the end of the month!

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4027 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:23 am

Hammy wrote:September and October really are behaving like 2007 save for the MDR being more favorable.

Gulf: Two Cat 1 hurricanes and a depression in the in 2007, one storm and one Cat 1 in 2021.
Caribbean: 2007 had Cat 5 Felix early in the month and then literally nothing until October 27. This year has gone without a storm in the Caribbean since late August.
Subtropics: Two short lived subtropical storms in 2007 with both transitioning; 2021 similarly only two short-lived subtropical storms, with neither transitioning fully.
MDR: 2007 saw 3/1/0. This was the biggest difference in performance, with 2021 producing 5/2/2.

East Pacific saw two Cat 1 hurricanes and a tropical storm in September and one tropical storm in October, while 2021 had a Cat 2 in September and Cat 1 in October.
Notably, the West Pacific was significantly less active this year than 2007, which may have contributed to Sam and Larry persisting in the manner they did.

It does lead to wondering if the warm pool in the East Pacific likely contributed to the reduction in Caribbean activity by allowing for more shear, given the EPac managed to produce a Cat 2 after August, which wasn't the case in 2007.


IMO, it has nothing to do with the warm pool over the EPAC, it was also somewhat there last year.
During the past month a fairly persistent ULL-TUTT like feature is what has made the Caribbean unfavorable for the past month because of a high latitude stacked ridge over far eastern Canada.
This was a fairly similar set up in 2007 thought the TUTT like feature was not as strong and a little further west and the stacked ridge was further south of the GL US.
Image
Image
Image

The mid & UL set up last year was completely different with a stacked ridge over FL with much better conditions over the Caribbean and GOM.
Image

The ridging over eastern Canada is forecasted to go away over the next couple of weeks so is the TUTT like feature over FL/Bahamas areas, so the Caribbean is forecasted to have better UL conditions, we shall see if something tries to develop with with the fronts dropping down to least the 25th latitude over the next couple of weeks it could make it difficult or work in the favor of development, we shall see.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4028 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:48 am

I’m very surprised that NOTHING has formed in October since Sam and Victor wrapped up, not even some weak subtropical slop like the October storms of 2019. The MJO stuff is so abnormal that it’s overriding climo; a La Niña should favor late-season development in the western Atlantic, but so far nothing. Global tropics over the last 4 weeks have also been the most lackluster since the 70s according to Phil K.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4029 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:10 am

What's even more weird is that the EPAC is lighting up again a few days from now while the Atlantic continues to remain dead...
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4030 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:14 am

One can't NOT believe the GFS when it shows high shear and believe it when it shows improving conditions. :) Nothing greater than 120 hours our can be believed IMO, from either model.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4031 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:18 am

skyline385 wrote:What's even more weird is that the EPAC is lighting up again a few days from now while the Atlantic continues to remain dead...


Yellow Evan pointed this out in the EPAC thread as well, but it's also ironic that that is shown yet bulk shear at least is expected to remain quite high in that part of the basin according to the GFS operational and there is no ULAC that is shearing whatever forms there (yet that disturbance still becomes a hurricane right off Oaxaca).
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4032 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:29 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.

2004 had intense ridging pumping SAL across the basin. Dry, stable air killed off most tropical activity early in the season. August 2019 was dominated by a suppressive kelvin wave as well as SAL across the basin. I don't think either are comparable to October 2021.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4033 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:32 am

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4034 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:38 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.

2004 had intense ridging pumping SAL across the basin. Dry, stable air killed off most tropical activity early in the season. August 2019 was dominated by a suppressive kelvin wave as well as SAL across the basin. I don't think either are comparable to October 2021.


Ok yeah, the more and more I think about it, the less comparable those periods are to now. I honestly have zero clue as to what is going on now, it's not as if the entire Atlantic basin is under +25 knots of shear (there's quite a bit of green if you look at the deep layer shear map and blue if you look at the mid level shear map currently), and it's not as if ssts are 25 C or less in most of the basin (the W Atlantic is warmer now than it was last year) or as if there's a blanket of SAL or dry dusty air covering the entire basin (so basically what we saw cause 2013 to be inactive for the most part does not apply here). Is there a lack of tropical waves to spark genesis? That's honestly the only reason I can think of as to what it's so quiet now and for the foreseeable future. Even then though, we have not seen any non-tropical originating weak slop in the subtropics or the Eastern Seaboard or something like that, it's almost as if there's some Michael Myers-like supernatural force at play now that's just not allowing anything major to form, not just in the Atlantic but worldwide.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4035 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:42 am

Hammy wrote:September and October really are behaving like 2007 save for the MDR being more favorable.

Gulf: Two Cat 1 hurricanes and a depression in the in 2007, one storm and one Cat 1 in 2021.
Caribbean: 2007 had Cat 5 Felix early in the month and then literally nothing until October 27. This year has gone without a storm in the Caribbean since late August.
Subtropics: Two short lived subtropical storms in 2007 with both transitioning; 2021 similarly only two short-lived subtropical storms, with neither transitioning fully.
MDR: 2007 saw 3/1/0. This was the biggest difference in performance, with 2021 producing 5/2/2.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1449731427583631366


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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4036 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:46 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:What caused June and July of 2004 to be storm free, as well as the first half of August 2019? I honestly think whatever caused those could perhaps give some idea as to what is going on now in that they were similarly dead periods that really confused storm trackers, though I am not personally sure exactly how good of a comparison those periods would serve.

2004 had intense ridging pumping SAL across the basin. Dry, stable air killed off most tropical activity early in the season. August 2019 was dominated by a suppressive kelvin wave as well as SAL across the basin. I don't think either are comparable to October 2021.


Ok yeah, the more and more I think about it, the less comparable those periods are to now. I honestly have zero clue as to what is going on now, it's not as if the entire Atlantic basin is under +25 knots of shear (there's quite a bit of green if you look at the deep layer shear map and blue if you look at the mid level shear map currently), and it's not as if ssts are 25 C or less in most of the basin (the W Atlantic is warmer now than it was last year) or as if there's a blanket of SAL or dry dusty air covering the entire basin (so basically what we saw cause 2013 to be inactive for the most part does not apply here). Is there a lack of tropical waves to spark genesis? That's honestly the only reason I can think of as to what it's so quiet now and for the foreseeable future. Even then though, we have not seen any non-tropical originating weak slop in the subtropics or the Eastern Seaboard or something like that, it's almost as if there's some Michael Myers-like supernatural force at play now that's just not allowing anything major to form, not just in the Atlantic but worldwide.


Two pictures can explain why the tropics have been mostly dead worldwide for the past few weeks:

Image

Image

The Atlantic had a favorable base state (id est +AMO and -ENSO), but an unfavorable MJO phase (id est Phases V-VIII). Nothing developed in the Atlantic because there was a lack of convection, and what developed in the West Pacific underperformed because of -ENSO-induced sinking air.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4037 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:52 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
Hammy wrote:September and October really are behaving like 2007 save for the MDR being more favorable.

Gulf: Two Cat 1 hurricanes and a depression in the in 2007, one storm and one Cat 1 in 2021.
Caribbean: 2007 had Cat 5 Felix early in the month and then literally nothing until October 27. This year has gone without a storm in the Caribbean since late August.
Subtropics: Two short lived subtropical storms in 2007 with both transitioning; 2021 similarly only two short-lived subtropical storms, with neither transitioning fully.
MDR: 2007 saw 3/1/0. This was the biggest difference in performance, with 2021 producing 5/2/2.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1449731427583631366


Interesting that Andy Hazelton twitted about the analog with 2007 after I pointed to him earlier this morning about the troughing/TUTT like feature over the western basin underneath the ridging over far eastern Canada.

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1449723314935586821


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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4038 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:55 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok yeah, the more and more I think about it, the less comparable those periods are to now. I honestly have zero clue as to what is going on now, it's not as if the entire Atlantic basin is under +25 knots of shear (there's quite a bit of green if you look at the deep layer shear map and blue if you look at the mid level shear map currently), and it's not as if ssts are 25 C or less in most of the basin (the W Atlantic is warmer now than it was last year) or as if there's a blanket of SAL or dry dusty air covering the entire basin (so basically what we saw cause 2013 to be inactive for the most part does not apply here). Is there a lack of tropical waves to spark genesis? That's honestly the only reason I can think of as to what it's so quiet now and for the foreseeable future. Even then though, we have not seen any non-tropical originating weak slop in the subtropics or the Eastern Seaboard or something like that, it's almost as if there's some Michael Myers-like supernatural force at play now that's just not allowing anything major to form, not just in the Atlantic but worldwide.

Tropical waves are blanketed across the basin. Look at the Tropical Weather Discussion.

The wave currently in the Caribbean is dealing with a harsh upper level pattern. The waves in the MDR are facing dry air above ~8N. Trade winds are also quite strong.

The MJO has been hindering the Atlantic for a couple weeks now. While that is set to change, a suppressive kelvin wave will move across the basin late this month. That timing is probably why no development is modeled over the next 10 days.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4039 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:54 am

Here is the 1991-2020 climatology

Number Named systems Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
1 Jun 20 Aug 11 Sep 1
2 Jul 17 Aug 26 Sep 19
3 Aug 3 Sep 7 Oct 28
4 Aug 15 Sep 16 -
5 Aug 22 Sep 28 -
6 Aug 29 Oct 15 -
7 Sep 3 Nov 15 -
8 Sep 9 - -
9 Sep 16 - -
10 Sep 22 - -
11 Oct 2 - -
12 Oct 11 - -
13 Oct 25 - -
14 Nov 19 - -
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#4040 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:28 am

Funny how the Atlantic started behaving the opposite of a Nina year as soon as the Nina officially developed. Is there a La Niña version of a Modoki El Niño, where the Nina results in unfavorable conditions across the Atlantic?
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