2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

He's controversial for sure, but love or hate, he's always been a pro at pattern recognition. We shall see!

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437579957832716297?s=20

I have been echoing this for weeks my concern for SFL this October with La Niña.

[Category5Kaiju]

It is quite interesting to see that the WPAC currently has 14 NSs that formed while the EPAC has had 15; the Atlantic is likely going to surpass both basins in NSs quite soon assuming the MDR AOI and the Bahamas AOI become named storms (which, imho, will likely be the case) and the other 2 basins remain quiet for the forseeable future. 2005, 2010, and 2020 are the only three other recorded years when the Atlantic surpassed the WPAC in NS count, so perhaps this could be a sign that the baseline conditions in the Atlantic are nevertheless still decent?

[Category5Kaiju]

He's controversial for sure, but love or hate, he's always been a pro at pattern recognition. We shall see!

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437579957832716297?s=20

I have been echoing this for weeks my concern for SFL this October with La Niña.

I'm going to be bold and say it now, but I personally am willing to bet that the strongest storm this season will occur in the West Atlantic in October.

[Stormybajan]

With Nicholas being upgraded to a hurricane at 11 tonight, we already have 6 hurricanes for the season by September 13th. I expect atleast 3 more hurricanes before the season closes off

[AxaltaRacing24]

With Nicholas being upgraded to a hurricane at 11 tonight, we already have 6 hurricanes for the season by September 13th. I expect atleast 3 more hurricanes before the season closes off

Hurricanes and majors might come very close to 2017.

[Hammy]

With Nicholas being upgraded to a hurricane at 11 tonight, we already have 6 hurricanes for the season by September 13th. I expect atleast 3 more hurricanes before the season closes off

Hurricanes and majors might come very close to 2017.

Kind of surprising we're that close--the shorter duration of storms overall has made this year seem less active in numbers compared to 2017 than it actually is.

[jconsor]

Theme of TC formation close to land and quick intensification before landfall continues from last year:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437708785305407488

[Zonacane]

He's controversial for sure, but love or hate, he's always been a pro at pattern recognition. We shall see!

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437579957832716297?s=20

I agree. He did a video 4 hours ago that called Nick almost to a tee, he even underestimated pressure. I just wish he separate his meteorological skills with all the other crap he posts.

He has solid meteorological takes, though he can buy into the hype a bit. His takes about the NHC pumping storm name count to push a global warming agenda are baffling.

[Zonacane]

With Nicholas being upgraded to a hurricane at 11 tonight, we already have 6 hurricanes for the season by September 13th. I expect atleast 3 more hurricanes before the season closes off

Hurricanes and majors might come very close to 2017.

Kind of surprising we're that close--the shorter duration of storms overall has made this year seem less active in numbers compared to 2017 than it actually is.

A west-based season will do that.

[Category5Kaiju]

With Nicholas being upgraded to a hurricane at 11 tonight, we already have 6 hurricanes for the season by September 13th. I expect atleast 3 more hurricanes before the season closes off

Hurricanes and majors might come very close to 2017.

Kind of surprising we're that close--the shorter duration of storms overall has made this year seem less active in numbers compared to 2017 than it actually is.

I mean 2017 was a pretty extreme season in many aspects, but interesting enough, this year's Cat 4, Ida, was stronger in pressure (929) than either of the Cat 4s that have occurred by now in 2017 (Harvey with 937 and Jose with 938 mbar); but yeah, I really do think that the reason why this year *seems* to pale in comparison to the activity seen in 2017 was really thanks to Irma. I think Irma, while not the strongest hurricane of the season by pressure or the most destructive, really shocked many hurricane trackers like us due to how long lived and strong it got.

[kevin]

So far there have only been 8 tropical cyclones in September, globally. They are 17W (WPAC), typhoon Conson, typhoon Chantu, TD (WPAC), hurricane Olaf, tropical storm Mindy, BOB 03 and hurricane Nicholas. Here below is the total September storm count worldwide per year since 2010 (as of the 14th of September). As you can see this is the least active September so far since 2015 in terms of named storms. Before 2015 there was a whole string of seasons which also 'only' had 6 - 9 TCs in the first half of the month.

2021 = 8
2020 = 11
2019 = 11
2018 = 11
2017 = 9
2016 = 13
2015 = 6
2014 = 9
2013 = 7
2012 = 6
2011 = 9
2010 = 6

[Category5Kaiju]

So far there have only been 8 tropical cyclones in September, globally. They are 17W (WPAC), typhoon Conson, typhoon Chantu, TD (WPAC), hurricane Olaf, tropical storm Mindy, BOB 03 and hurricane Nicholas. Here below is the total September storm count worldwide per year since 2010 (as of the 14th of September). As you can see this is the least active September so far since 2015 in terms of named storms. Before 2015 there was a whole string of seasons which also 'only' had 6 - 9 TCs in the first half of the month.

2021 = 8
2020 = 11
2019 = 11
2018 = 11
2017 = 9
2016 = 13
2015 = 6
2014 = 9
2013 = 7
2012 = 6
2011 = 9
2010 = 6

You know, with a relatively inactive WPAC and EPAC predicted for the near future as well as the TUTT that has been of great talk for the Atlantic invested trackers, maybe the Northern Hemisphere as a whole for some reason is just not having its best month? Idk, seems strange to me honestly how all three basins are like this (especially the Atlantic), although if somehow the Atlantic defies our expectations and generates decent storms later this month, I also would not be shocked.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hurricanes and majors might come very close to 2017.

Kind of surprising we're that close--the shorter duration of storms overall has made this year seem less active in numbers compared to 2017 than it actually is.

I mean 2017 was a pretty extreme season in many aspects, but interesting enough, this year's Cat 4, Ida, was stronger in pressure (929) than either of the Cat 4s that have occurred by now in 2017 (Harvey with 937 and Jose with 938 mbar); but yeah, I really do think that the reason why this year *seems* to pale in comparison to the activity seen in 2017 was really thanks to Irma. I think Irma, while not the strongest hurricane of the season by pressure or the most destructive, really shocked many hurricane trackers like us due to how long lived and strong it got.

Irma was an insane storm. that and dorian are 2 storms that behaved in unprecedented ways that we rarely see in this basin.

[WiscoWx02]

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

[SFLcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_4.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

Weakness over Florida. Could imply threats from Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_4.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

Thing is Who knows if it verifies though? Still waiting for that death ridge for September.

[AutoPenalti]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_4.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

Weakness over Florida. Could imply threats from Caribbean.

Continental dry air may actually save Florida.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_4.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

Weakness over Florida. Could imply threats from Caribbean.

Continental dry air may actually save Florida.

I have heard of inhibitory dry air from SAL and deserty regions like Mexico or Texas, but from Florida? That's interesting imho

[toad strangler]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_4.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2021091406/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png

Okay, this is concerning. Basically echoes what Joe Bastardi has been saying for a while. Yeah, I know he overhypes things sometimes, but I don't have much optimism when I see this kind of pattern. It spells big trouble down the road. Same pattern that lead to last year being insane. Ridge over troubled waters, troughs dipping into central US as a result, raising the pressures aloft in the tropics and causing more convergence in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico at the surface as we saw last year.

Weakness over Florida. Could imply threats from Caribbean.

Continental dry air may actually save Florida.

I could see your point perhaps Orlando N and the panhandle. But that would be something for cont dry air to be that kind of a factor in S FL in October. We shall see!

[toad strangler]

INCREDIBLE the TC magnet the N GOM as been recently.

Then you add Michael, Hermine, etc, it's almost not believable.

 https://twitter.com/paytonmalonewx/status/1437759726125821952