2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

EPS does not propagate the MJO. Has several kelvin waves passing across the basin. Verbatim, this would be an active mid-late October following a pause earlier that month.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1438612786385498113

October looks nasty. The western to central Atlantic will be enhanced by -VP anomalies from roughly October 10th through 26th, plenty of time to produce several storms and probably at least one major.

Indeed… should be a cane fest in the Caribbean come October.

[gatorcane]

October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

[Steve]

:uarrow: October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

?

https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps

Charts don’t lie. It’s not static but still.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

None of this showed steering into FLORIDA specifically. It showed steering that threatened the EAST COAST. Gigantic difference there. Florida is just the southern tip of the East Coast.
But yes, that's been a fail. Anomalous output like that would be suspect every year no matter what. It's easy to ride the climo train. Not so much trying to point out things that could deviate from the beaten trail.

[Ubuntwo]

:uarrow: October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

Like Steve said, there is currently a blocking high over SE Canada. 96L opens the trapdoor north, not an upper-latitude trough. Right place at the right time.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

The worrisome thing though Dr. Ryan predicted this capeverde recurve pattern weeks ago and it panned to the point. Amazing call. See images below from early August.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I know this should be in the models section and it’s fantasy land, but what if CV season did not end as early as we are used to or know of it ending given recent seasons being more backloaded? The GFS seems to want a bona fide, potent CV storm on its most recent run steered directly toward the islands under a very powerful HP ridge. And this is October 1ish. I mean, we did get Lorenzo as a strong late September CV storm, and Matthew formed before the islands…

[otowntiger]

:uarrow: October could get interesting but hoping these indicators bust as bad as they did for those which showed blocking highs and SE Canada ridging to steer Cape Verde storms into Florida and the CONUS during the peak of the season which hasn’t happened.

yes, my thoughts exactly. It seemed that significant impacts for southeast/ East coast CONUS were a near certainty back then. I for one am glad the dire predictions busted. Here’s hoping the good fortune continues.

[zzh]

[aspen]

It's been a season of wildly varying extremes so far, and with the suppressive MJO phase for late September followed by a likely very enhanced mid-October, that's only going to continue.

[kevin]

It's been a season of wildly varying extremes so far, and with the suppressive MJO phase for late September followed by a likely very enhanced mid-October, that's only going to continue.
https://i.imgur.com/gUlbfP2.png

Haha, nice one. I hope this doesn't mean we get a 'strong dog' again in October. September is usually the most active month, but October (at least that's how it feels to me) is the month where those once-in-a-generation storms form (Wilma, Patrica, Tip, Mitch, Nora etc.).

[Category5Kaiju]

Hurricane trackers after September 2021:


Hurricane trackers after October 2021:

[Category5Kaiju]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

If this sst anomaly profile signature isn't convincing enough that activity this year's activity could last and be quite potent in October and beyond, then I don't know what is.

[Teban54]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

If this sst anomaly profile signature isn't convincing enough that activity this year's activity could last and be quite potent in October and beyond, then I don't know what is.

Posting the image here:

Also, here's the SST trend:

SSTs in the Eastern Caribbean continue to rise rapidly, while Western Caribbean and Gulf (aside from Nicholas' cold wake) are also slowly warming. I wonder if the heat in ECar will be transferred to WCar and the Gulf Stream later.

IMO there's a good chance we see a Matthew-like storm that becomes strong in ECar with this setup, rather than the 2020 late-season majors that developed in ECar and reached their peak in WCar.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

If this sst anomaly profile signature isn't convincing enough that activity this year's activity could last and be quite potent in October and beyond, then I don't know what is.

Posting the image here:
https://i.imgur.com/TzfUwlT.png
Also, here's the SST trend:
https://i.imgur.com/Rq2yxbA.png
SSTs in the Eastern Caribbean continue to rise rapidly, while Western Caribbean and Gulf (aside from Nicholas' cold wake) are also slowly warming. I wonder if the heat in ECar will be transferred to WCar and the Gulf Stream later.

IMO there's a good chance we see a Matthew-like storm that becomes strong in ECar with this setup, rather than the 2020 late-season majors that developed in ECar and reached their peak in WCar.

Yeah, that is most definitely a concern that I have. In fact, in terms of ACE, while most large ACE producers are strong CV storms that occur earlier, as we saw with storms like the 1915 Louisiana hurricane, 1932 Cuba hurricane, Mitch, or Matthew, you could have a predominantly W Atlantic storm that, if it is able to maintain a ton of strength and move slowly, can generate a lot of ACE points. I just have this feeling that we're going to see at least one of that kind of system later this fall.

[AlphaToOmega]

With Tropical Storm Odette forming today, that is a fourth storm for this September. Some more activity is expected between now and September 30.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1438963130957107203



Regardless of how you judge the intensity of storms this season, it has really been quite impressive quantity wise.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, it looks like regardless of our final total ACE that we are likely going to have a very high NS count in the end. We only need 5 more NSs to tie for third most active season on record, and 7 to hit Adria.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1438963130957107203?s=20
Regardless of how you judge the intensity of storms this season, it has really been quite impressive quantity wise.

It really hasn't been that bad quality wise either. Already at 3 majors, so we'll probably end up around 4-5.

Would be nice if those majors wouldn't plow into land though

[Hammy]

CFS performed remarkably well 2-3 months out for September, showing 1-2 long trackers (as we could still have a second) with mostly weaker storms over the open Atlantic (no clue on GoM as the maps consistently wouldn't load)

Interesting that this year is behaving similarly to 2007, another La Nina year, with having a short period of rapidly intensifying storms in the western basin (Dean/Felix and Grace/Ida) and a storm rapidly intensifying to hurricane close to Texas (Humberto/Nicholas) with most of the Atlantic itself featuring shorter-lived, highly sheared systems--with Larry being a glaring difference.

Did 2007 feature similar below-normal global activity?