2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#101 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:36 am

wxman57 wrote:Just saw this video on YouTube. Hypothetical 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. I counted about 44 named storms. Used the entire supplementary list. Two Cat 5s into SE Florida and one Cat 3 into SW Florida peninsula. Uh oh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udh_Jn7nZZs&t=339s

Those videos aren't really serious predictions. Only an uber weenie would even think about predicting that many storms, which would beat the 1964 WPAC season by 4 or 5 storms.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#102 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:08 am

JetFuel_SE wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Just saw this video on YouTube. Hypothetical 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. I counted about 44 named storms. Used the entire supplementary list. Two Cat 5s into SE Florida and one Cat 3 into SW Florida peninsula. Uh oh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udh_Jn7nZZs&t=339s

Those videos aren't really serious predictions. Only an uber weenie would even think about predicting that many storms, which would beat the 1964 WPAC season by 4 or 5 storms.


Of course they're not real predictions.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#103 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:33 am

Btw Accuweather recently came out with their prediction for this season and are calling for 16-20 NSs, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major. If the conditions are ripe and La Nina makes a comeback later this season, what concerns me is that Kottlowski even mentioned that seeing more than 20 named storms would not be out of question, and it could even be possible that we may need to use the supplementary list (or basically go into the Greek letters again right after another year that did so, which would be unprecedented). Now we still are ways away, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#104 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:56 am

Although that would be pretty cool, I hope that does not happen because Florida has a target on its back so more storms means a greater likelyhood of impact. However if there are a lot of storms it could strengthen the Bermuda high and force storms farther west.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#105 Postby SFLcane » Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:51 pm

If the CFS is right Florida could have a nasty season. We may not be so lucky this go around

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#106 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:If the CFS is right Florida could have a nasty season. We may not be so lucky this go around

https://i.imgur.com/djxgoCI.jpg

If it’s right, the WCar Caribbean won’t be nearly as friendly for big storms as last year — great news for Central America. That doesn’t exclude long-trackers from the MDR making their way into the Caribbean, though.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#107 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:36 pm

This may be one of those seasons where many storms go out to sea and recurve but the select few that do manage to make their way to the Western Atlantic will be very strong. Hopefully not though but that image looks like that may be a possibility
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#108 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:09 pm

Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:
Image

ASO Atlantic rainfall:
Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#109 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:
https://i.imgur.com/cN0jEcB.png

ASO Atlantic rainfall:
https://i.imgur.com/7TO3F9t.png

I know it's generally not the best idea to try and decipher tracks with precip anoms on the models (individual storms are too small-scale to be accurately depicted) but I suppose this is sort of what I see for the September forecast period:
Image

I guess it's a bit reminiscent of -NAO with the recurves - I know it's a little hard to tell since the signal isn't extremely well defined. But it would definitely be a welcome sight after all the strikes last year. But of course exact details on steering cannot be diagnosed this early and this far out since subseasonal features like that can vary greatly.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#110 Postby toad strangler » Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:39 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Here's the new Canadian monthly:

ASO VP200:
https://i.imgur.com/cN0jEcB.png

ASO Atlantic rainfall:
https://i.imgur.com/7TO3F9t.png

I know it's generally not the best idea to try and decipher tracks with precip anoms on the models (individual storms are too small-scale to be accurately depicted) but I suppose this is sort of what I see for the September forecast period:
https://i.ibb.co/ng6CTjf/apriltracks.png

I guess it's a bit reminiscent of -NAO with the recurves - I know it's a little hard to tell since the signal isn't extremely well defined. But it would definitely be a welcome sight after all the strikes last year. But of course exact details on steering cannot be diagnosed this early and this far out since subseasonal features like that can vary greatly.


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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#111 Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:02 pm

The MDR (east Caribbean to Africa south of 18N) isn't looking like it will have a very favorable environment again this year. Storms may struggle until they reach the western Caribbean, as they did last year.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#112 Postby Gums » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:10 pm

Salute!

With the La Nina, usually not good for the Gulf, but something seems awry so far this spring.

I go with Aspen for numbers and paths.

East coast of U.S. will bear the brunt once into full season, but I can see a storm in the Gulf early.

Gums sends...
According to Einstein and Yogi Berra, predictions are hard...especially about the future
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#113 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:09 am

Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Apr 02, 2021 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#114 Postby NotSparta » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:14 am

Iceresistance wrote:Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Nope, that very rarely happens. It's like expecting a season to be 2005
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#115 Postby SFLcane » Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:34 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#116 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:12 am

CyclonicFury wrote:The January CanSIPS is about as favorable of a look as you can get. Thankfully, it's only New Year's Day, so this likely won't verify. Hopefully it trends to a less favorable look over the coming months.

https://i.imgur.com/Wg5yfVm.png
https://i.imgur.com/uWaR5ul.png
https://i.imgur.com/3AC7wyR.png
https://i.imgur.com/cIrp3F7.png


Now in April the change is notable for a dry western caribbean but we are in the SB so let's see after that passes how this and other models do.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#117 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:31 am


I should’ve waited to post my first preliminary season estimates lol.

Taking into account this velocity potential map and the moisture forecast map, it looks like this could be a serious MDR year. A velocity potential like that would result in a bonkers AEW train, and if 2020’s problems don’t come back again (large waves that have trouble consolidating and a typhoon-pumped TUTT), I can definitely see a greater frequency of high-ACE Cape Verde storms like in 2010 and 2011.

Interestingly, the EPac looks kinda decent, so less suppressive anomalies and potentially a weaker -ENSO could lead to a slightly more active year than 2020. But then again, 2020’s EPac ACE is a low bar.
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Re: Storm2k 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Numbers Poll (Open until May 31 at Midnight EDT)

#118 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:43 am

Iceresistance wrote:Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Another year, another 2013 post... Never fails :lol:
(No offense btw, I just find it amusing)
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#119 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:52 am

aspen wrote:

I should’ve waited to post my first preliminary season estimates lol.

Taking into account this velocity potential map and the moisture forecast map, it looks like this could be a serious MDR year. A velocity potential like that would result in a bonkers AEW train, and if 2020’s problems don’t come back again (large waves that have trouble consolidating and a typhoon-pumped TUTT), I can definitely see a greater frequency of high-ACE Cape Verde storms like in 2010 and 2011.

Interestingly, the EPac looks kinda decent, so less suppressive anomalies and potentially a weaker -ENSO could lead to a slightly more active year than 2020. But then again, 2020’s EPac ACE is a low bar.


You can change the numbers anytime in preliminary status.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#120 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Do Y'all have a bad feeling about a 2013 Sneak attack? I do have that feeling . . .

Wishful thinking won't work, sadly.
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