2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2409
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#161 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:29 pm

End of March observation of the SST Anomalies . . .

Image

Much of the EPAC is below normal & most of the Altantic is above normal (The Gulf of Mexico is REALLY warm this time of the year)
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Age: 23
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#162 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:22 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:May you kindly make a similar animated sequence for the forecast STSD during ASO, going back to 2017?

Sure:

https://i.ibb.co/C1nh47g/ezgif-2-3e9d224c5cac.gif

By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?

Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.

My bad, here you go:
Image
2 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1355
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#163 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:05 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?

Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.

My bad, here you go:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/828679091019710524/ezgif-6-9790f2252bcf.gif

The latest forecast suggests steering currents rather similar to those in ASO 2019: storms turning sharply northward, with harrowingly close calls (i.e., Dorian).
0 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

NXStumpy_Robothing
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 204
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:50 pm
Location: North Georgia

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#164 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:42 am

Shell Mound wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:By “STSD” I was referring to the Standardised Tropical-Storm Density. May you please post the animated sequence for those?

Interestingly, the SST profile, with + anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea, suggests -AMO, yet the NS/H suggest otherwise.

My bad, here you go:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/828679091019710524/ezgif-6-9790f2252bcf.gif

The latest forecast suggests steering currents rather similar to those in ASO 2019: storms turning sharply northward, with harrowingly close calls (i.e., Dorian).

Considering Dorian made landfall in North Carolina as a mildly powerful hurricane and completely devastated the Bahamas (as well as doing significant amounts of additional damage as a post-tropical cyclone in Canada), I don't think Dorian is the best usage of a close call. I'm aware you're most likely referring to southeast Florida, but steering currents like 2019 would make for a very bad season for those living on islands off the US East Coast. Regardless, a discussion about Dorian is not necessarily a discussion to be had here, and I'll stop before rambling further on that topic.

Moving on to steering currents, the natural climatology of Atlantic hurricanes support recurves, so seeing that being supported by certain model runs is not necessarily surprising. It's more anomalous to get west-based seasons like last year (which still had its fair share of recurves), where there's a blocking pattern established to steer the storms into the North American mainland. Besides, even if the pattern generally favors systems avoiding land and gunning northeast out to sea, all it takes is for one untimely shift in that pattern, and instead you're dealing with a storm getting steered towards land and causing massive damage (2012's Sandy comes to mind here). I'd welcome a recurve-heavy season (and I personally expect something similar to 2011/2012 in terms of storm tracks) but I wouldn't bet on that being a failproof shield.
7 likes   
Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 19
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#165 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:18 am

Just curious but what was the prediction for the storm tracks in years like 2005, 2010, or 2017 this early in the season? I know 2005 was a heavy landfall year while 2017 was a mild recurve year and 2010 a heavy recurve year, so just wondering how those early predictions would compare with 2021
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1355
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#166 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:31 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

The latest forecast suggests steering currents rather similar to those in ASO 2019: storms turning sharply northward, with harrowingly close calls (i.e., Dorian).

Considering Dorian made landfall in North Carolina as a mildly powerful hurricane and completely devastated the Bahamas (as well as doing significant amounts of additional damage as a post-tropical cyclone in Canada), I don't think Dorian is the best usage of a close call. I'm aware you're most likely referring to southeast Florida, but steering currents like 2019 would make for a very bad season for those living on islands off the US East Coast.

Yes, I was referring mainly to Southeast Florida. I should add that, while I expect most storms to curve OTS this year, there may be one exception that could impact the Bahamas before curving just offshore of the U.S. East Coast. I think the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Outer Banks are at highest risk this year, based on the indicators that have been discussed and pointed out thus far. The Caribbean will likely revert to being a dead zone once again, and I expect much less activity in the Gulf than we observed last year. Tracks in 2021 should tend to consolidate just north of the MDR and/or over the subtropical Atlantic, make some feints westward, and then curve mainly OTS, with one exception possibly following a path, if not intensity, similar to Dorian’s (hopefully, an event of that magnitude won’t transpire for decades to come). I don’t want to wander too far OT, however, but I just needed to clarify this. The ECMWF, NMME, and CanSIPS certainly do hint at more poleward tracks in 2021 compared to recent seasons.
0 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1355
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#167 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:38 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious but what was the prediction for the storm tracks in years like 2005, 2010, or 2017 this early in the season? I know 2005 was a heavy landfall year while 2017 was a mild recurve year and 2010 a heavy recurve year, so just wondering how those early predictions would compare with 2021

More than half—ten—of 2017’s seventeen NS either made landfall or passed close to land masses, so 2017 was clearly west-biased as well.
2 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 19
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#168 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:53 am

Yeah I think it very important either way to consider that just because a predominantly OTS season is expected that does not necessarily mean significant land impacts are not going to occur. Some good examples of this are 1926, 2003, and of course 2019. In fact, late season activity like in October usually favors activity in the Gulf and WCAR, and as the CANSIPS actually is predicting a wetter Gulf in October, that could be favorable for any TCs that spawn due to the CA gyre. In other words, it wouldn't surprise me in the very least if we get a season where most storms head OTS but a select few become powerful and threaten areas like the Bahamas, Florida Strait, or even W Florida late season.
1 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Age: 23
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#169 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:22 am

Sorry to bring up yesterday's ECMWF SEAS5 run again but this also sort of caught me by surprise: due to a not-so-great climo period (1993-2016 is overwhelmingly +AMO) this model has a very evident +MSLP bias in the Atlantic; however, it appears that for this run pressures in the central and eastern Atlantic are depicted as average to slightly above average by ASO.
Image

Compare to previous years (yes, including 2017 and 2020) and you'll see why this interests me:
Image
Something else of note with this year's run is the widespread positive MSLP in the Pacific; looks like it's keeping the walker circulation in Niña mode despite warming ENSO? That would certainly help the Atlantic's case in that regard.
5 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13207
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#170 Postby NDG » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:23 am

I would expect a nice warm up of SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic Basin over the next few days with the NAO going well negative since early February.

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6630
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#171 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:58 pm

That ACE prediction (which is quite active by ECMWF standards for the Atlantic) is really weird given its (fairly typical) depiction of a dry MDR.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 122108
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#172 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:40 pm

:think:
SFLcane wrote:That ACE prediction (which is quite active by ECMWF standards for the Atlantic) is really weird given its (fairly typical) depiction of a dry MDR.


Something is not right about those two different scenarios despicted by the model. :think:
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6630
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#173 Postby SFLcane » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:58 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2409
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#174 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:01 pm




Maybe 2020 created this weirdness :lol:
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :jacket:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Especially in Oklahoma . . .

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12790
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#175 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:That ACE prediction (which is quite active by ECMWF standards for the Atlantic) is really weird given its (fairly typical) depiction of a dry MDR.

It's not just the Euro, I believe the Canadian seasonal is doing the same thing.
4 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 796
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#176 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:22 pm

The Euro is predicting a very active season in spite of its well-known dry bias, yikes.
5 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1355
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#177 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:01 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Yeah I think it very important either way to consider that just because a predominantly OTS season is expected that does not necessarily mean significant land impacts are not going to occur. Some good examples of this are 1926, 2003, and of course 2019.

Seven of 1926’s eleven NS and ten of 2003’s sixteen NS made landfalls, so those years are not particularly good examples.

Anyway, the EC suggests an active season despite a borderline Niño and general -AMO signature (+ Gulf of Guinea). Why?
0 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1355
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: S FL, USA → N Europe

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#178 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:14 am

So far, the EC, CanSIPS, and CFSv2 all agree that the Caribbean will likely be drier than normal during ASO, while the eastern portion of the MDR could be more active than usual, as in years such as 2009. There is also general agreement that tracks will tend to move poleward, over the open Atlantic, during the same timeframe. The EC, unlike the CanSIPS and CFSv2, hints at more Gulf activity than usual during ASO, whereas the other two models suggest a drier-than-average GoM. But the general consensus seems to be that storms are more likely to form farther east and track farther north, that is, OTS, during the peak of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The drier-than-average Caribbean also suggests that late-season activity is likely to be less intense than expected, which would reduce the threat of an October threat to places such as, say, Florida. If anything homegrown does manage to form, the EC suggests that it could develop over the GoM and track generally northeastward, like Nestor or Olga in 2019. Maybe 2009 and 2019 might be analogous in terms of genesis and some general tracks. Warm neutral or + ENSO tends to result in more OTS tracks due to a stronger TUTT and weaker mid-level ridging.
0 likes   
Formerly CapeVerdeWave/MiamiensisWx | Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005 | Gordon ‘94, Irene ‘99, Frances ‘04, Wilma ‘05, Irma ‘17 | March ‘94 | TSHTropical • Extratropical
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 15833
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#179 Postby tolakram » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:02 am

Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying. :)
5 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Age: 19
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#180 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:43 am

tolakram wrote:Out of curiosity, has any pre-season prediction of general tracks been anywhere close to accurate? Every spring we seem to go through some of these discussions with no regard for how any of these have verified in the past. Not that there's anything wrong with analyzing what the models are saying. :)


I may not be the best person to ask given I am no professional met but rather a 19-year old wx geek who started closely tracking hurricanes in 2018, but what I have heard 2017 started off with a pretty OTS signal but ended up being a devastating landfall year. Of course, 2017 was also expected to be an El Nino year, which do tend to favor OTS tracks. However, then you have La Nina years like 2010 or 2011 where many storms are OTS
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: dexterlabio, Dougiefresh, MetroMike, Nawtamet and 32 guests