2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 73.1 / EPAC - 79.7 / WPAC - 96.9 / NIO - 13.8

#41 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Just like that the WPAC is back on top.

Chanthu saw that the Atlantic was on its way to surpassing the WPac’s ACE total and was like “oh hell no”
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 79.3 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 121.8 / NIO - 13.8

#42 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:46 am

So it is mid September and the only active ACE maker is Chanthu in the WPAC and that is now in small increments. How often does it happen when there is little to no ACE in September?
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 79.3 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.1 / NIO - 13.8

#43 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:56 pm

We need nine days of zero activity for ACE to fall below climo
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 79.3 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.1 / NIO - 13.8

#44 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:01 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Just like that the WPAC is back on top.


It looks like that the WPAC ACE was posed to be surpassed by the Atlantic's AC, but Chanthu was like NO, not if I'm here!
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 79.3 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.1 / NIO - 13.8

#45 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:18 pm

Looks increasingly like we're not going to reach hyperactive.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 79.3 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.1 / NIO - 13.8

#46 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:23 pm

If 95L does develop and become a hurricane in the western Atlantic — and that’s a big if — it could be anywhere from a 15 to 25 ACE storm. That would put 2021 on track to finish off in the range of 2016/2018/2019’s ACE totals, including activity during what could be another peak in mid-October.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 82.1 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#47 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:28 am

The NATL will surpass the EPAC at the next BT update (12Z).

Atlantic (82.4600)

############################################# 2021 ##############################################
STORM STORM MAX MIN STORM STORM TS HU C2 MH C4 C5
IDENT NAME WIND PRES ACE PDI DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
202101L ANA 40 1006 1.0075 0.3846 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202102L BILL 50 998 0.9850 0.4480 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202103L CLAUDETTE 40 1004 1.0450 0.4057 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202104L DANNY 35 1011 0.2450 0.0858 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202105L ELSA 75 991 9.5200 5.2860 8.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202106L FRED 55 993 2.0925 0.9071 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202107L GRACE 110 962 9.0950 6.6775 6.00 2.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00
202108L HENRI 65 986 7.7175 4.4024 6.25 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202109L IDA 130 929 10.8225 10.4834 4.25 2.75 1.50 1.00 0.75 0.00
202110L KATE 40 1004 0.6500 0.2355 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202111L JULIAN 50 995 0.4525 0.2161 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202112L LARRY 110 955 32.8250 31.0682 10.50 9.25 5.75 4.50 0.00 0.00
202113L MINDY 40 1004 0.4050 0.1497 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202114L NICHOLAS 65 989 2.3625 1.2246 2.50 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202115L ODETTE 40 1002 0.5650 0.2137 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202116L PETER 45 1005 1.6575 0.7176 2.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202117L ROSE 45 1004 1.0125 0.3906 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 SEASON TOTALS: 82.4600 63.2967 53.75 16.50 7.75 6.00 0.75 0.00
#################################################################################################


East Pacific (82.4725)

############################################# 2021 ##############################################
STORM STORM MAX MIN STORM STORM TS HU C2 MH C4 C5
IDENT NAME WIND PRES ACE PDI DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
202101E ANDRES 35 1005 0.7350 0.2573 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202102E BLANCA 50 998 1.5125 0.6731 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202103E CARLOS 45 1000 1.0925 0.4389 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202104E DOLORES 60 990 1.3450 0.6640 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202105E ENRIQUE 80 975 7.8650 5.3738 5.25 2.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202106E FELICIA 125 947 21.4100 22.2682 6.50 4.50 3.75 2.75 2.00 0.00
202107E GUILLERMO 50 999 1.3850 0.5910 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202108E HILDA 75 985 8.0350 4.9895 6.25 2.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202109E JIMENA 35 1005 0.6125 0.2144 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202110E IGNACIO 35 1004 0.3675 0.1286 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202111E KEVIN 50 999 3.2025 1.3734 4.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202112E LINDA 115 950 25.9575 23.2246 9.75 7.00 4.75 2.00 0.50 0.00
202113E MARTY 40 1002 0.6875 0.2566 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202114E NORA 75 977 4.6050 2.7338 3.75 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
202115E OLAF 80 977 3.6600 2.3447 2.75 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2021 SEASON TOTALS: 82.4725 65.5319 50.75 18.25 8.50 4.75 2.50 0.00
#################################################################################################
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 82.4 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:31 am

EPAC has been dead for a while and North Atlantic has taken the advantage.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 82.8 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#49 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 6:04 pm

98L/Sam is looking more and more likely to be a 25-40 ACE long-tracker, and could bring the basin to above-average ACE all by itself. I guess September is gonna end like it began, despite a lackluster mid-month.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 83.2 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#50 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:47 am

Let's see how much ACE the new cyclone SAM will get to bump up a lot the North Atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 82.8 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#51 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:30 pm

aspen wrote:98L/Sam is looking more and more likely to be a 25-40 ACE long-tracker, and could bring the basin to above-average ACE all by itself. I guess September is gonna end like it began, despite a lackluster mid-month.

Despite what mid-month looks like, you can NEVER doubt September during a la nina.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 83.8 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 123.9 / NIO - 13.8

#52 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 23, 2021 11:40 pm

Definitely think we will end the season as Hyper-Active once again. This will continue happening until they change the parameters of what is considered different levels of activity.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 84.2 / EPAC - 82.2 WPAC - 124.9 / NIO - 14.0

#53 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2021 4:44 am

Looks like EPAC is going to end the 2021 season well below average in terms of ACE and the prospect for more activity dwindles as some factors are working against a lot of late season activity. The average for September 24 is 104.3 ACE units and right now it has been stucked for a few weeks at 82.2.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 84.2 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 124.9 / NIO - 14.0

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 24, 2021 8:58 am

Here's the counts I have as of 12Z September 24th.

Image
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#55 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:56 am

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1441788507781881859



Current 120-hour forecast for Sam will bring 2021's total ACE to 114.3, and that's not even including the track beyond 120 hours past the Lesser Antilles. With the possibility of one or two more majors during October with La Nina, the season is virtually guaranteed to end up above average in ACE with hyperactive (159.6) again on the table.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#56 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:02 am

Teban54 wrote:https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1441788507781881859?s=20
Current 120-hour forecast for Sam will bring 2021's total ACE to 114.3, and that's not even including the track beyond 120 hours past the Lesser Antilles. With the possibility of one or two more majors during October with La Nina, the season is virtually guaranteed to end up above average in ACE with hyperactive (159.6) again on the table.

Assuming Sam does become a Cat 4, that’ll be ~25 ACE on top of the ~5 units it has already produced, and it’ll likely be a major for several days afterwards. Sam could surpass Larry’s ACE total once all is said and done.

Impressive that there has now been two long-tracking, (soon to be) high-ACE MDR majors after the pre to early season SST profiles were lackluster compared to 2017 and 2020.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:06 am

Some trackers: "Oh no, Atlantic is underperforming in ACE! The jet stream is too far north, peak season is slow, and the thermohaline circulation must have unexpectedly collapsed again! Hyperactivity is impossible at this point!"

Atlantic: :red:
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#58 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:11 am

So who wins the ACE race, Sam or Mindulle?
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:35 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Some trackers: "Oh no, Atlantic is underperforming in ACE! The jet stream is too far north, peak season is slow, and the thermohaline circulation must have unexpectedly collapsed again! Hyperactivity is impossible at this point!"

Atlantic: :red:


Even a handfull of season cancel posts were around.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:35 am

1900hurricane wrote:So who wins the ACE race, Sam or Mindulle?


Sam because will last longer.
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