2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 112.1 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 149.1 / NIO - 14.7

#81 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:48 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 115.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 150.91 / NIO - 14.7

#82 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:11 am

As of the 5am advisories, Sam is up to 31.7 ACE and Mindulle is up to 26.8 ACE. Sam will be the winner in the ACE race; it could remain as a Cat 4 for another 36 hours, while Mindulle is a Cat 2 and weakening. Sam will also likely surpass Larry (32.8) by the 5pm advisory today, and the basin as a whole will be near 120 ACE by then.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 115.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 150.91 / NIO - 14.7

#83 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:31 am

aspen wrote:As of the 5am advisories, Sam is up to 31.7 ACE and Mindulle is up to 26.8 ACE. Sam will be the winner in the ACE race; it could remain as a Cat 4 for another 36 hours, while Mindulle is a Cat 2 and weakening. Sam will also likely surpass Larry (32.8) by the 5pm advisory today, and the basin as a whole will be near 120 ACE by then.


The NHC forecast would now bring Sam to roughly 53 ACE by 120 hours (which is also probably roughly when it becomes extra-tropical). It would but Sam around Luis and Allen and thus at #7 - #8 of the highest ACE Atlantic hurricanes since 1950. It would also bring the basin to around 136 points with October still to go. Victor could bring that above 140. Who knows what happens after Sam and Victor, it could be that October is very quiet. But even something half as impressive as 2020's late season (2020 had 75 ACE in October & November) would be sufficient to push 2021 into hyperactive territory.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 117.1 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 151.5 / NIO - 14.7

#84 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:02 am

Sam (33.2) has surpassed Larry. (32.8)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 117.1 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 151.5 / NIO - 14.7

#85 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:33 am

I love Sam. A good-looking, gentle giant who is not expected to hurt any landmasses and will jack up 2021's ACE by a lot.
6 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 917
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 117.1 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 151.5 / NIO - 14.7

#86 Postby DioBrando » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:15 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I love Sam. A good-looking, gentle giant who is not expected to hurt any landmasses and will jack up 2021's ACE by a lot.

Larry needs some love too <3
1 likes   
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)


Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 122.6 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 152.7 / NIO - 15.3

#88 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:31 am

Sam contributing to 2021's ACE total (as a 150 mph 934 mbar hurricane as of this post) be like:

Image
5 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 122.6 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 152.7 / NIO - 15.3

#89 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:58 am

Current NHC forecast would add about 12 more units getting Sam above the very impressive 50 mark.
5 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 131.5 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 16.8

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:07 am

Sam getting closer to the 50 mark as of the 11 AM advisiory it has 45.7 units.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 132.7 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 17.2

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:55 pm

Three more to 50.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 135.2 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.2

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:43 am

Sam is at 49.5 so at 5 PM will reach 50.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 135.2 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.2

#93 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:42 pm

18L.Sam
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 22 September 5 pm AST 30 0
2 22 September 11 pm AST 30 0
3 23 September 5 am AST 30 0
4 23 September 11 am AST 45 0.2025
5 23 September 5 pm AST 50 0.2500
6 23 September 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
7 24 September 5 am AST 65 0.4225
8 24 September 11 am AST 65 0.4225
9 24 September 5 pm AST 75 0.5625
10 24 September 11 pm AST 85 0.7225
11 25 September 5 am AST 95 0.9025
12 25 September 11 am AST 105 1.1025
13 25 September 5 pm AST 120 1.4400
14 25 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
15 26 September 5 am AST 125 1.5625
16 26 September 11 am AST 125 1.5625
17 26 September 5 pm AST 130 1.6900
18 26 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
19 27 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
20 27 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
21 27 September 5 pm AST 105 1.1025
22 27 September 11 pm AST 105 1.1025
23 28 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
24 28 September 11 am AST 115 1.3225
25 28 September 5 pm AST 115 1.3225
26 28 September 11 pm AST 120 1.4400
27 29 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
28 29 September 11 am AST 115 1.3225
29 29 September 5 pm AST 115 1.3225
30 29 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
31 30 September 5 am AST 125 1.5625
32 30 September 11 am AST 125 1.5625
33 30 September 5 pm AST 125 1.5625
34 30 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
35 1 October 5 am AST 130 1.6900
36 1 October 11 am AST 130 1.6900
35 1 October 5 pm AST 130 1.6900
38 1 October 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
39 2 October 5 am AST 115 1.3225
40 2 October 11 am AST 115 1.3225
41 2 October 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
42 2 October 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
43 3 October 5 am AST 90 0.8100
44 3 October 11 am AST 85 0.7225
45 3 October 5 pm AST 85 0.7225
Total 49.995

AL182021 (Sam) is at 49.995 ACE. Just one more advisory is required to reach the 50 ACE mark.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 135.9 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:03 pm

Sam has reached 50 ACE units at 5 PM. (50.2)

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 135.9 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:24 pm

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 584
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 137.6 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#96 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:04 am

I guess the next question is to see if Sam has enough gas left in the tank to get us over 140 ACE. Only 2.4 to go!
0 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 138.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#97 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:29 pm

4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 138.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#98 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:44 pm

Hurricane Luis right now:
Image
8 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 138.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 153.6 / NIO - 18.9

#99 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:05 pm



Still tropical as of 00z BT, TropicalAtlantic lists as 53.75 ACE so made it to #7.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 139.5 / EPAC - 86.5 / WPAC - 163.7 / NIO - 18.9

#100 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 18, 2021 3:03 pm

Although the Atlantic will remain above normal for the year, I have to guess that the Northern Hemisphere ACE average is falling quite a bit behind average now. There is no activity at all in any of the basins with nothing forecasted for at least a week or so. When was the last time all three basins were quiet for an extended duration of time...at least from July-October?
1 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cainjamin, Google Adsense [Bot], KirbyDude25, NotSparta, pepecool20, USTropics and 56 guests