2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 88.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 128.2 / NIO - 14.4

#61 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:10 pm

1900hurricane wrote:So who wins the ACE race, Sam or Mindulle?



Based on the models output, Mindulle might hold on to typhoon strength until October 1st, while Sam is shown still being a hurricane until possible ET transition on October 3rd...a 2-day lead to beat Mindulle in the ACE race. However, Mindulle could narrow the gap if it hits Chanthu-level intensity and maintains this for 2 days.


Anyway, whatever Mindulle's final ACE would be, it will surely be enough for 2021 to surpass the ridiculously low ACE totals last year in WPAC.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 91.2 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 131.3 / NIO - 14.5

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:35 pm

There is competition between Sam And Mindulle about which of them will get the most ACE. As of 03z Sam has 7.9 ACE units and Mindulle has 7.1.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 94.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 135.1 / NIO - 14.7

#63 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:54 pm

I think Sam is going to take it. Even with Mindulle reaching 145 kt, its now being plagued by upwelling and on its way down. Meanwhile, Sam is going to spend a longer period of time near peak intensity, even if the absolute peak doesn't match Mindulle's.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 96.0 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 136.3 / NIO - 14.7

#64 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:42 pm

Looks like Sam will be the winner. Mindulle has rapidly weakened due to upwelling and an EWRC, while Sam looks to be in a favorable environment that could allow for a second peak through the next 72 hours or so.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 100.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 139.2 / NIO - 14.7

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:45 am

The North Atlantic has surpassed the 100 ACE mark with the 11 AM advisory from Sam. The battle between Sam and Mindulle rages on with Sam ahead with 17.0 and Mindulle with 15.1.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 102.6 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 140.9 / NIO - 14.7

#66 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:30 am

Regarding Atlantic seasonal ACE, I think its seasonal value either will or should be lower than is officially listed. In its BT entry Larry is officially listed as having been a MH for more than four days, yet recon indicated that Larry's MSW were lower than either SATCON or P/W indicated. Recon couldn't even find conclusive evidence that Larry's Cat-3 winds were mixing to the surface. Recon only supported a middling Cat-2 at best. Given its large size, uneven eye, and relatively warm cloud-tops, I think Larry peaked at 100-105 kt early on and then quickly weakened to sub-major status, never to recover. As far as Sam is concerned, I think it peaked at 125 kt early on, underwent an EWRC, and then attained a secondary peak of 145 kt/925 mb before recon. But like Larry's, its intensity was/is more uneven than indicated in BT.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 102.6 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 140.9 / NIO - 14.7

#67 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:09 am

NHC's forecast advisory would get Sam to 44 ACE 120 hours from now and note that this advisory only peaks Sam at 115 kt while it's already there now and probably still intensifying. Also at 120 hours Sam is still at 100 kt according to the NHC so it's not like the ACE counter abruptly stops afterwards. I think there's a real possibility that Sam could become our first 50+ ACE hurricane since Irma.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 103.9 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 141.8 / NIO - 14.7

#68 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:48 am

Sam has as of the 5 AM advisory 20.6 ACE units and is going to surpass Larry. (32.8)
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 100.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 139.2 / NIO - 14.7

#69 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:08 am

cycloneye wrote:The North Atlantic has surpassed the 100 ACE mark with the 11 AM advisory from Sam. The battle between Sam and Mindulle rages on with Sam ahead with 17.0 and Mindulle with 15.1.


When did we reach 100 last year?
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 103.9 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 141.8 / NIO - 14.7

#70 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:14 am

By the end of September 2020, the season had 105.8775 ACE.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 100.4 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 139.2 / NIO - 14.7

#71 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:29 am

Hammy wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The North Atlantic has surpassed the 100 ACE mark with the 11 AM advisory from Sam. The battle between Sam and Mindulle rages on with Sam ahead with 17.0 and Mindulle with 15.1.


When did we reach 100 last year?


Screenshot of the moment it reached 100 on September 21.

Image
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 103.9 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 141.8 / NIO - 14.7

#72 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:49 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:By the end of September 2020, the season had 105.8775 ACE.

2021 will easily finish its September with a higher ACE total, probably closer to 110 ACE. It’ll likely be around 120-130 ACE by this time next week depending on how strong Sam’s second peak is and how strong 90L and/or 91L get.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 105.2 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 142.8 / NIO - 14.7

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:12 am

The race between Sam and Mindulle at 15:00z keeps Sam well ahead with 21.9 while Mindulle has 18.7.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 108.0 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 145.2 / NIO - 14.7

#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:06 pm

With the 11 PM advisory, the North Atlantic surpasses the normal average of ACE which is 105.6.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 109.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 146.5 / NIO - 14.7

#75 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:30 am

Sam will probably finish off with 46-51 ACE based on the current NHC track, which will get the season to ~130 ACE — and that’s not including 90L/Victor, which has a good chance of becoming a hurricane.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 109.3 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 146.5 / NIO - 14.7

#76 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:53 am

ACE as of the 28th of September for every year since 2010. We're only behind 2010 and 2017 now and pretty much on-par with 2019 and 2020.

2010 = 133.2 (final ACE: 164.5)
2011 = 84.9 (final ACE: 126.2)
2012 = 97.6 (final ACE: 130.1)
2013 = 25.3 (final ACE: 36.1)
2014 = 36.9 (final ACE: 66.7)
2015 = 17.6 (final ACE: 62.7)
2016 = 58.2 (final ACE: 141.3)
2017 = 201.6 (final ACE: 224.8)
2018 = 88.2 (final ACE: 132.6)
2019 = 105.9 (final ACE: 132.2)
2020 = 105.8 (final ACE: 180.4)
2021 = 108.0
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 110.7 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 147.9 / NIO - 14.7

#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:10 am

Sam as of the 11 AM advisory has 27.3 ACE units and is almost reaching Larry that has 32.8.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 110.7 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 147.9 / NIO - 14.7

#78 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:Sam as of the 11 AM advisory has 27.3 ACE units and is almost reaching Larry that has 32.8.


Will easily beat it with 4-5 days to go and likely hanging near Cat 3-4 status.
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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 110.7 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 147.9 / NIO - 14.7

#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:45 pm

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Re: 2021 Global ACE: NATL - 112.1 / EPAC - 82.2 / WPAC - 149.1 / NIO - 14.7

#80 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:28 pm

There's a good chance Sam and Victor get 2021 knocking on the door of hyperactive ACE. The current NHC 12 hour forecast brings seasonal ACE to 146.8, and the current hyperactive threshold is 159.6. One more October major or maybe two Cat 1/2s should do the job, and anything more than that will give us quite a comfortable margin even when considering possible downward adjustments of Larry and Sam post-season.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1443310884302905349


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