2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

Is anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits? I'm getting a "You are offline" message.

[zhukm29]

Is anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits? I'm getting a "You are offline" message.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1439633245054779392

[aspen]

The ensemble runs on WeatherNerds will be crucial while Tropical Tidbits is down.

Speaking of the ensembles, both the GEFS and EPS have many members that stall/loop Odette, develop the 0/40 wave, and show yet another possible MDR system in 7-10 days. Clearly the MDR has yet to give up despite the poor performances of Peter and Rose (so far). The 0/40 AOI could end up with a similar track as Peter and could get uncomfortably close to the Leeward Islands. Only time will tell if it becomes anything.

[Category5Kaiju]

If the MDR cranks out strong, quality storms in late September and early October and boosts our ACE (fish or not), I will be quite impressed.

[storminabox]

If the MDR cranks out strong, quality storms in late September and early October and boosts our ACE (fish or not), I will be quite impressed.

I really hope that happens. Getting sick of all the slop. A Lorenzo-like storm would be awesome to see!

[tolakram]

12Z Euro animation from weather.us

[aspen]

Levi just tweeted that the server host for TT still hasn’t gotten back to him, so the site will be down for quite some time.

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z from weathernerds.org

[tolakram]

200MB vorticity and winds

[SFLcane]

GFS 18Z from weathernerds.org

https://i.imgur.com/aGU1F6r.gif

Another recurving cv tc we’re have I seen that before lol.

[MetroMike]

GFS 18Z from weathernerds.org

https://i.imgur.com/aGU1F6r.gif

Another recurving cv tc we’re have I seen that before lol.

Yes its getting old with nothing to cause excitement past the peak.

[Teban54]

GFS 18Z from weathernerds.org

https://i.imgur.com/aGU1F6r.gif

Another recurving cv tc we’re have I seen that before lol.

Yes its getting old with nothing to cause excitement past the peak.

Not sure if I agree that the only excitement comes from landfalling hurricanes. Strong fishes are arguably the best things to track without having to worry about the extreme damage they could cause.

[Hammy]

Another recurving cv tc we’re have I seen that before lol.

Yes its getting old with nothing to cause excitement past the peak.

Not sure if I agree that the only excitement comes from landfalling hurricanes. Strong fishes are arguably the best things to track without having to worry about the extreme damage they could cause.

Problem is the models keep showing those strong recurves that, after Larry (and even before), have all failed to materialize. It's always the NEXT wave that'll be the one, until that one doesn't, and then the models latch onto whatever will follow.

[gatorcane]

The MDR has been quite hostile all season, particularly the western part east of the Caribbean. Like 2020, the eastern MDR has allowed for some significant development (Larry). Models indicate the first real cold front of the season arriving this week, after which time the Gulf may be dominated by strong westerly wind shear for quite a while. This is quite different from last season. The Gulf may be closing for business soon, with the exception of the SE Gulf & Florida late season.

High shear from later this week through Oct. 5th in the latest GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091906/gfs_shear_atl_65.png

Indeed a very strong front for this time of year which should really put a dent into the warmer SSTs across the northern Gulf:

[SFLcane]

SFL will still be open for business.

[LarryWx]

SFL will still be open for business.

Actually, just about all of FL would still be "open for business" even with the next cold front cooling the N Gulf, especially due to La Nina. That cooling wouldn't reduce the threat potential all that much even further north than S FL. And only the far northern Gulf may cool significantly, regardless. We'll see.

Regardless, here in GA, I'm so looking forward to the cooler and drier air!

[LarryWx]

Forecast for Panama City:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
SATURDAY
SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.

So, some cooling no doubt but how far down into the Gulf will this cool air get?

[LarryWx]

How about Tampa?

Barely any cooling per this:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN CLEARING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 20 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

[IcyTundra]

Eastern Gulf and Florida still have to watch out for hurricanes. Over here in Texas the hurricane season is shutting down as it is a very rare occurence for a tropical cyclone to strike Texas in the month of October.

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GEFS is wild; has many members have 98L develop into a potent hurricane that may miss the islands by a very small margin, has a signature for a Charley-tracked WCAR storm, and has another MDR signature for an early October system after 98L passes. Perhaps this is the "true" peak season for this year? At the end of September?