2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Iceresistance]

True? Impossible to answer IMO, this met apparently believes it.

We have a cold front coming through which is typical for Sept. Next week will be back in the 90s with high humidity. This is unusual for him so maybe he's in some kind of crisis. I hope he's right but people follow him religiously.

Every year we go through the cold front posts. Every year people think it's early, the first modelled cold front of the year usually doesn't do much, BUT what can be said is that as the season progresses Texas sees less and less landfalling storms. I'm not sure we've hit the extremes of early and late storms yet so I would be very hesitant to predict an all clear.

Since this could be the only Cold Front in September to clear the Texas Coast until October/November/December, I'm not calling it all clear yet either . . .

[SFLcane]

So, right now it’s looking like Oct 11-end of month looks good on the Caribbean as MJO rolls back around then. Reasonable to see expect 1-2 hurricanes

[SFLcane]

Also think some analogs showing up are Michelle more so NE tracking tc’s. Those fronts are definitely coming and I don’t think we will see a repeat of everything heading into the gulf.

[Ubuntwo]

Also think some analogs showing up are Michelle more so NE tracking tc’s. Those fronts are definitely coming and I don’t think we will see a repeat of everything heading into the gulf.

There should be a suppressive Kelvin wave sometime next* month, so at least a few waves will slip into the western basin w/o developing earlier and recurving.

[LarryWx]

Good news on the model consensus is that the first part of active W Caribbean season at least appears to be pretty quiet at this time. That would take us through about the first week of October if it verifies. That would be a decent chunk of the active W Caribbean season. But there’d still be a bigger chunk left to go.

[SFLcane]

Good news on the model consensus is that the first part of active W Caribbean season at least appears to be pretty quiet at this time. That would take us through about the first week of October if it verifies. That would be a decent chunk of the active W Caribbean season. But there’d still be a bigger chunk left to go.

On the 35 day Gefs you can sense my idea of tracks going in a NE fashion across Cuba. Extreme long range so take with caution

[psyclone]

Maybe the late season activity that missed FL to the west last year will pass us by to the east this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Cliffhanger GFS indeed has a system hit S Cuba from the WCAR by October 10. While nowhere near as strong, reminds me of Paloma or Michelle a bit

[SFLcane]

Tis the season…

[boca]

Tis the season…

https://i.postimg.cc/zD9JVd5C/CCFFB9-A9-5-B41-4195-907-C-D3-DE45822-A8-E.gif

Let’s see if we can get consecutive runs in a row with this new storm. It seems like it gets dropped the next run or two than shows up in the same time frame again 3 days from now.

[gatorcane]

Tis the season…

https://i.postimg.cc/zD9JVd5C/CCFFB9-A9-5-B41-4195-907-C-D3-DE45822-A8-E.gif

Agreed getting to that time we need to watch the Western Caribbean here in South Florida.

I do think a big hurricane is going to develop there in October, question will be where it ends up.

[toad strangler]

Tis the season…

https://i.postimg.cc/zD9JVd5C/CCFFB9-A9-5-B41-4195-907-C-D3-DE45822-A8-E.gif

Let’s see if we can get consecutive runs in a row with this new storm. It seems like it gets dropped the next run or two than shows up in the same time frame again 3 days from now.

That thing is 384 hours out. I'd wait until under 200 before I worry about consecutive runs

[SFLcane]

Nothing to crazy on the GEFS yet but some slight long range support.

[otowntiger]

Tis the season…

https://i.postimg.cc/zD9JVd5C/CCFFB9-A9-5-B41-4195-907-C-D3-DE45822-A8-E.gif

Let’s see if we can get consecutive runs in a row with this new storm. It seems like it gets dropped the next run or two than shows up in the same time frame again 3 days from now.

That thing is 384 hours out. I'd wait until under 200 before I worry about consecutive runs

. Lol, so true. Interesting run and something certainly conceivable for that time of year, but it is in la la land as we all know.

[LarryWx]

Tis the season…

https://i.postimg.cc/zD9JVd5C/CCFFB9-A9-5-B41-4195-907-C-D3-DE45822-A8-E.gif

Agreed getting to that time we need to watch the Western Caribbean here in South Florida.

I do think a big hurricane is going to develop there in October, question will be where it ends up.

I find it hard to believe that in a borderline La Nina there wont be at least one, especially with SST's there now the warmest of the season and now warming even further due to a lack of storminess expected there the next 10+ days:

9/23/21 SSTs: although it has cooled some along the N Gulf coast and off N FL due to the cooler air, it is now the warmest of the season W Caribbean to the FL Straits and also off SW FL:

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 18z GFS is spinning up another Western Caribbean storm in the long range. As someone said earlier...tis the season. I've been concerned all along that the biggest threat to Florida was going to come from the Caribbean in October.

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS often has the right idea with NW Caribbean development but shows it a bit too early. There's not really a signal on the other models yet, so that could be the case here. I think we could see some potential Caribbean development during and after the second week of October, when the MJO is likely to move in to the region.

[aspen]

We could see 3 new TCs within the next 10-12 days:
—The 0/50 AOI is likely to become a TS, maybe a minimal hurricane
—The cutoff low that’ll influence the track of Sam could become strong enough to develop while over the Gulf Stream
—There’s a bit of ensemble support for a WCar system at the start of October, and the 18z GFS shows a broad area of rotation forming as early as ~200hr out

[toad strangler]

Looks like the 18z GFS is spinning up another Western Caribbean storm in the long range. As someone said earlier...tis the season. I've been concerned all along that the biggest threat to Florida was going to come from the Caribbean in October.

It's pretty common knowledge that FL is a sitting duck come October and especially during a El Ninoless environment.. Wilma was the last for the peninsula. We all know about Michael We shall see.

[SFLcane]

Um…,