2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Gefs still harping away… Maybe something eventually forms but GEFS moving back in time is classic bias.

[gatorcane]

I expect the models to start lighting up the Western Caribbean but since it might not be until mid October that something forms, we would still be too early for models to show it yet.

[SFLcane]

Should form a CAG which could end up in all sorts of forms.

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 210 hours, the 18z GFS looks like it may keep the Caribbean vorticity out over the water around the Cayman Islands. May try to spin it up this time.

EDIT: 222 hours appears we have TCG...Liftoff.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS gonna 18z GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS gonna 18z GFS

We wouldn't expect anything less... Drink up!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

With the ridge in place overhead it will be short lived. Will be a quick trip right into the Yucatan.

[AlphaToOmega]

:eek:

Should form a CAG which could end up in all sorts of forms.

https://i.postimg.cc/xdbFqFLZ/1-D94-A421-19-B6-4-E61-86-C1-EAF8710908-D7.jpg

That seems like the type of pattern to favor tropical activity in the EPac over the WAtl, though.

[SouthFLTropics]

Fantasyland time for the 18z GFS... 282 hours looks like trough coming across the Midwest may pick this up out of the Yucatan and drag it North and NE.

EDIT: No movement through 300 hours... Just hangs out and pounds the Yucatan.

[aspen]

18z GFS has a low forming about 8 days out in the WCar, then develops it into a strong Cat 3 that makes landfall at peak intensity in the Yucatán. That track and UL setup would be able to produce a monster of a storm if it were to verify exactly — which it won’t. This is a 200+ hr Happy Hour solution, after all.

[Ubuntwo]

Happy hour stalls over the Yucatan for almost 3 days, ouch.

[SouthFLTropics]

After pounding the Yucatan for 3 days with torrential rain it finally gets a move on and heads into the Bay of Campeche to search for its next victim.

[Jr0d]

With the CMC and ICON hinting at some activity for the CAG in the long ranger, we might get something in the next 10 days or so. Way too early to guess on a future path if something does pop up.

[cheezyWXguy]

With the west Caribbean storm pushing straight west, and a second storm forming in the east Caribbean, almost looks more like mid august than early October. Seems something like this would easily get picked up and turned north or northeast by a trough this time of year

[Teban54]

Interestingly, even though the GFS has been on an off with WCar development (expected for long range), it hasn't really pushed back genesis in the runs that do develop the system.

18z Sep 24 (the first run that shows development), valid 18z Oct 6:

06z Sep 25, valid 12z Oct 8:

00z Sep 26, valid 18z Oct 7:

06z Sep 26, valid 06z Oct 8:

18z Sep 27, valid 00z Oct 7:


TL;DR: So far, the GFS runs that show development generally do so in the Oct 6-8 range. This means it might not be a phantom and the GFS may indeed be sniffing out some signals that favor development in that time frame, though it's far from a guarantee. Track and intensity are meaningless at this point.

[Teban54]

With the west Caribbean storm pushing straight west, and a second storm forming in the east Caribbean, almost looks more like mid august than early October. Seems something like this would easily get picked up and turned north or northeast by a trough this time of year

Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota all headed straight west or WNW in the Caribbean. With the exception of Eta Part 2, none of them even came close to Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, I'm not buying that long range straight west. The run ends with it camped out in the BOC. A storm in that location is in a prime position for an attack anywhere from the Florida Panhandle all the way down to potentially the Keys depending on how strong a trough we would get. That's not to mention the other storm the GFS spins up in the Eastern Caribbean south of Hispaniola. The biggest thing to take from this is that starting in about 9 to 10 days all eyes should be focused on the area between the Yucatan and Jamaica. The Cayman Islands look to possibly be ground zero for potential TCG.

[SouthFLTropics]

With the west Caribbean storm pushing straight west, and a second storm forming in the east Caribbean, almost looks more like mid august than early October. Seems something like this would easily get picked up and turned north or northeast by a trough this time of year

Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota all headed straight west or WNW in the Caribbean. With the exception of Eta Part 2, none of them even came close to Florida.

This is true, but correct me if I'm wrong, I believe each of those developed further South. If something starts around the Caymans I don't see it ending up all the way through the BOC and into the Mexico mainland. I could be wrong though.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, that GFS run did not really give any sort of hope or love to 90L; it only develops the westernmost wave

[cheezyWXguy]

With the west Caribbean storm pushing straight west, and a second storm forming in the east Caribbean, almost looks more like mid august than early October. Seems something like this would easily get picked up and turned north or northeast by a trough this time of year

Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota all headed straight west or WNW in the Caribbean. With the exception of Eta Part 2, none of them even came close to Florida.

This is true, but correct me if I'm wrong, I believe each of those developed further South. If something starts around the Caymans I don't see it ending up all the way through the BOC and into the Mexico mainland. I could be wrong though.

This. Eta and Iota were further south. Delta kind of proves my point, although Louisiana is a decently far west landfall for that late in the season.