2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2161 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:44 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
You read my mind sir.

Maybe a stray SW Carib storm but the intensity of the cold fronts is picking up every week. Me thinks that outside of the tropics, the US is in for a rude winter.

More crazier than Last Winter? :eek:


Yes. Check your animals in the wild, watch their behavior and see if they look like they have acquired thicker layers of fur, etc. Just a hunch, no long term models I trust yet. By the first of November they should start popping off then to confirm one way or another.


Some of my cats already have noticeably thicker fur than others, but all of my cats have thicker fur than a couple months ago . . .

And assuming that you can't get close to Deer, I've spotted several last month & a couple earlier this month, but I've not see one since last week. What are their behaviors when that you may know that Winter is going to be difficult?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2162 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:13 am

Imagine if Rick formed in the far western EPAC, managed to survive hitting the narrowest strip of land in Mexico, and entered the GoM and began deepening there. That’s what the GFS thinks
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2163 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:07 am

What on Earth is that GFS run lol

An EPac crossover that spawns a hurricane in the Gulf, then a strong TS/weak hurricane in the eastern MDR in the last days of October. Apparently the GFS didn’t get the memo that both the Gulf and MDR are closed for business.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2164 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:18 am

The GFS is higher than Snoop Dog.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2165 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:00 am

Regardless of that weirdo GFS run that seems to think we're in September, the GEFS ensembles (00z and 06z, with the 00z being stronger) have been consistently hinting at the possibility of a strong Caribbean storm late this month. Now it is very early to tell whether it would be a CONUS threat or not (probably not but who knows) and whether it would be the last major hurricane of this season or not (and even if it is a phantom storm or not), but there definitely is historic precedent for a particular La Nina season to feature one extra strong Caribbean storm in October or November after a relatively light period and then effectively end afterwards. Examples that come to my mind are 1932, 1961, 1998, and (to a certain degree) 1999. We'll see what 2021 has left in its arsenal, but I personally cannot say that I would be surprised if by Halloween we find ourselves trick-or-treating, pumpkin carving, watching scary movies, and monitoring a strong Caribbean hurricane on our laptops.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2166 Postby CourierPR » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:24 am

I will look for Meteorologist Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary on weatherbell.com today. The negative hyperbole here is not helpful.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2167 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:31 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:The GFS is higher than Snoop Dog.
https://i.postimg.cc/XYbg8CRr/gfs-mslpa-eatl-65.png


The ensembles have been also showing a wave leaving off Africa mid October and making it through the MDR to start intensifying in the Caribbean. This season is so weird...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2168 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:58 pm

aspen wrote:What on Earth is that GFS run lol

An EPac crossover that spawns a hurricane in the Gulf, then a strong TS/weak hurricane in the eastern MDR in the last days of October. Apparently the GFS didn’t get the memo that both the Gulf and MDR are closed for business.


Right lol? Given Climo and especially given GFS's penchant for developing long range phantom storms, the idea of THAT verifying would seem just as ridiculous as some new Sharknado movie titled "Lurking Within The Eye of Wanda" :lol: .

Let's entertain the idea for a moment (meaning the GFS long range, not the Sharknado movie). Why this year and this late in the season?? I largely subscribe to the "old school" thought of Climatology and Persistence, but will always defer to whatever the dynamic conditions present (regardless how anomalous they may appear). On the broader scale, it is interesting to view the last 2 1/2 months of the CDAS 3.4 Nino Index. For all the LaNina talk over most of the season, there has been little variance in the average SST bouncing right around -0.3 for a 45 day period from August 1st to about September 15. During the past 30 days since mid September, the CDAT 3.4 region clearly has graphed a consistent precipitous SST drop to -0.8 as of today. Notwithstanding whether the 3.4 Nino Index SST's level off or continue to drop, at minimum this would seem to suggest at least "some" subtle downstream pattern changes soon to occur. As to just how long of a time lag for these changes to impact the upper air environment, I'm not sure. One contributing factor may include the very warm SST pool in the far East Pac but that too could be mitigated by the even larger area of very warm SST's through much of the Caribbean and GOM.

One thing that's interesting is how the GFS 24 hr. short range model seems to immediately begin transforming the current strong unfavorable 200mb conditions over the W. Caribbean and Eastern/Northern GOM, to a full reversal that depicts a generally anticyclonic flow which in time appears to extend from the S. GOM to much of the Caribbean. This pattern change does seem to be the catalyst for what otherwise would be viewed as just another crazy GFS long range "ghost-storm". As for the date on the calendar, I might be quite skeptical if this were February, but not at all during Oct. or Nov. Providing that a legit rich tropical air mass were able to propagate north & modify conditions within the GOM or Caribbean along with the current SST's in place and a truly favorable upper air environment..... I'd have to assume that tropical development is a reasonable outcome. I personally doubt that development would originate from the far Western BOC but it's easy to imagine a similar solution with low pressure bubbling up from the south anywhere from the Eastern BOC to the Caribbean.

As for some record breaking far Eastern MDR development??? Sure, why not. Assuming ideal upper air conditions were in place, current very warm MDR SST's south of 14N, and the season-long display of strong tropical waves emanating from the African coastline during an already over-active hurricane season??? I wouldn't bet the farm on it but then again records are meant to be broken; Over enough time, they typically are.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2169 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:42 pm

This shear just doesnt want to let go, even though we have been ENSO -ve the entire 2021 season

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2170 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:58 pm

I've watched the model runs 16 days out thread for 109 pages this year.
Looks like south Florida escaped once again and this may be season over for land falling hurricanes.
Thix should be my last post on the long range model thread.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2171 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:13 pm

skyline385 wrote:This shear just doesnt want to let go, even though we have been ENSO -ve the entire 2021 season

https://i.imgur.com/OfHRSd2.png

At least the EPac shear makes sense for once lol.

Florida *should* be safe for the rest of the season, with the exception of a far weaker system that is well past its peak in the WCar like Mitch and Eta. It’s Central America that’ll near to worry about something.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2172 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:56 pm

Image

Based on the instantaneous wind shear map in the Atlantic now, one would think that it is quite typical of what would be seen in mid-October in a La Nina year. The ssts are plenty warm, especially in the GoM and the Caribbean. Sahara dust outbreaks are not what you see this time of the year. So that begs the question, is there something else that some of these models are seeing that make them refuse to show activity anytime soon in the Atlantic?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2173 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:34 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Based on the instantaneous wind shear map in the Atlantic now, one would think that it is quite typical of what would be seen in mid-October in a La Nina year. The ssts are plenty warm, especially in the GoM and the Caribbean. Sahara dust outbreaks are not what you see this time of the year. So that begs the question, is there something else that some of these models are seeing that make them refuse to show activity anytime soon in the Atlantic?


40-50kt shear over the NW Caribbean is not at all typical of La Nina October. It seems the entire upper air pattern is south of where it should be by 5-10 degrees, the bigger question is what's behind this pattern in the first place.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2174 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:31 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Based on the instantaneous wind shear map in the Atlantic now, one would think that it is quite typical of what would be seen in mid-October in a La Nina year. The ssts are plenty warm, especially in the GoM and the Caribbean. Sahara dust outbreaks are not what you see this time of the year. So that begs the question, is there something else that some of these models are seeing that make them refuse to show activity anytime soon in the Atlantic?


Well there is a ton of dry air over the MDR, combine that with 40-50kt shear and nothing is forming over there. If something even makes it to the Carribean then it only has a small window before dealing with 40+kt shear again.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2175 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:34 pm

Alright, well we'll see how the conditions (shear, ssts, etc.) progress, especially heading into the latter part of this month. I expect them to get better and more favorable, but that's just what I am inclined to think. Also worth noting that the GFS just goes bonkers with a variety of weak systems across the Atlantic and still retains that idea of an EPAC-Atlantic crossover (or sort of).
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2176 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:17 pm

It still looks pretty quiet. Sometimes La Nina's end quietly, There are no absolutes in climo. Maybe the quiet will hold. Last year's late season was horrible. Hopefully nothing more than a few weak systems from now to the end like a more normal season after the secondary peak.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2177 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:51 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:More crazier than Last Winter? :eek:


Yes. Check your animals in the wild, watch their behavior and see if they look like they have acquired thicker layers of fur, etc. Just a hunch, no long term models I trust yet. By the first of November they should start popping off then to confirm one way or another.


Some of my cats already have noticeably thicker fur than others, but all of my cats have thicker fur than a couple months ago . . .

And assuming that you can't get close to Deer, I've spotted several last month & a couple earlier this month, but I've not see one since last week. What are their behaviors when that you may know that Winter is going to be difficult?


Watch the deer. Unusual bird migration patterns. Siberian temperature variations in November. We've seen record cold in Antarctica this year so that could be an indicator also. It's been over 20 years since West and South Florida have had 3 days of sustained low temps below 30 degrees so we're way overdue. Does it means that it will happen? No. But I will be watching the temperature models in the first of November for some clues as to our patterns in December-January.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2178 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:04 pm

Just over 40% of the EPS members have development through day 15. That's almost exclusively beyond day 10. The modeled systems are mostly weak and broad - no intense outliers unlike the GEFS.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2179 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:16 am

Somehow, the support for an EPac system is only increasing. It just makes zero sense given the ENSO state and how Pamela did.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2180 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:35 am

aspen wrote:Somehow, the support for an EPac system is only increasing. It just makes zero sense given the ENSO state and how Pamela did.


Sometimes I have to wonder if there's EPAC convective bias going on, but I will say that even if something develops in the EPAC I guarantee you that it will likely be weak and sheared, much like Pamela. If you look at the GFS operational run's bulk shear and bulk shear anomaly though, oddly enough it is forecast to remain quite unfavorable in the western EPAC, so I honestly do not know what is going to happen. So many conflicting signals.

Let me show you:
Image

Image
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