2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1089
Age: 30
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2341 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:37 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Latest Genesis forecasts: ECMF ensembles show possible Caribbean genesis.
12z GEFS ensembles, and Operationals from FSU) do not....

[url]https://i.ibb.co/z2bLqff/frcstqb.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gZWRx56/frcstqc.jpg [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/tzGBPKK/frcstqa.jpg [/url]

12z and 18z GFS ensembles do have some support, moreso than the Euro ensembles which only have a few members developing.
Image
Image
1 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2342 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:46 pm

Interesting 12z run from the GFS. No major EPAC development, but a rapidly intensifying system that hits Nicaragua on the WCAR side. Hmm...
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2343 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 01, 2021 7:14 am

That was the most pathetic -ENSO October since 2007. However, the fact that Hurricane Sam was a major and reached its second 130+ kt peak during the first few days of the month automatically means it was more substantial than October 2007, even if there were no hurricanes that formed during the month.
5 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Europa non è lontana
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 93
Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:01 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2344 Postby Europa non è lontana » Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:52 am

Well, after Apollo, we have something else to watch already in the Med. The 12z Nov 1, 00z Nov 2, and 06z Nov 2 GFS runs have had what appears to be a subtropical storm (?) form in the western Mediterranean at the end of this week. The 06z run has landfall east of Algiers on the 8th.

Image

It could be nothing, only a couple of models are on board, and it is quite far out, but it bears watching if the next couple of runs also show development.
3 likes   

User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2345 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Thu Nov 04, 2021 5:07 pm

Europa non è lontana wrote:Well, after Apollo, we have something else to watch already in the Med. The 12z Nov 1, 00z Nov 2, and 06z Nov 2 GFS runs have had what appears to be a subtropical storm (?) form in the western Mediterranean at the end of this week. The 06z run has landfall east of Algiers on the 8th.

https://i.imgur.com/cptw9iN.png

It could be nothing, only a couple of models are on board, and it is quite far out, but it bears watching if the next couple of runs also show development.


After 2 days there is still a lot of disagreement among the models, they develop this in some runs and drop thereafter. However, most of the models show the initial extratropical low generated by a large cut-off upper level low over that area, but it may will not have enough time over water to the subtropical transition. I thinnk the further transformation into tropical cyclone seems almost impossible now.
1 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2346 Postby xironman » Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:17 am

The Canadian does a Wanda with the next northeaster

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2347 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:28 pm

The 18z GFS has ZERO <990 MB Tropical Cyclones worldwide for the entire run!
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2348 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:31 am

Saw this on the GFS which perked up my interest with the lower 850mb and mid levels 700mb stacked up.

Image

Then saw the shear, nope.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1937
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2349 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:52 pm

Sorry ChrisH-UK...

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2350 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:44 am

12Z Dec 7 forecast from the 6Z GFS looks quite believable - NOT! Sure, a 1060mb high over Colorado on that run and no high at all on the 00Z run.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2351 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Dec 01, 2021 6:36 pm

The famous 18Z GFS in its long-range fantasy land develops a TS near Canary Islands and Madeira (from a cut-off extratropical low) which later will make landfall in Portugal. :D

Image

Image
Last edited by Vince_and_Grace_fan on Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2352 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:13 am

What is this? The 0z GFS trying to develop a tropical disturbance across the BoC?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2353 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:50 am

Pivotal Weather Plus (Need a paid Subscription) now has 6z & 18z Euro model runs, 3-hour data up to +144 hours, & new Parameters!
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3946
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2354 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:57 am

1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2355 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:11 pm

Most likely a cartoon character. See yeh all in May. :D
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2356 Postby mitchell » Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:38 am

06 z GFS has an interesting little spin up north of Puerto Rico out about 10 days.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, kevin, SteveM, Zonacane and 58 guests