2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

06z and 12z ensembles seems to have dropped development for the W Car.

For now. My guess is that GFS ensembles' suggesting genesis will soon return though once again depicting development in the W. Caribbean but with a shorter fuse. However any details depicting how strong verses weak, or track moving into Central America or more poleward will still be entirely inconsequential at that range. Then as referenced above, if at some point (around 120-160 hr's?) where increasing model support begins to occur as well... then lets talk about "where" and "how strong". GFS is pretty good long range when properly viewed as environmental signals and not taken so literally as so many tend to take it.

[blp]

Much more active this run.

[Category5Kaiju]

I cannot tell; is that WCAR system the same as the lemon AOI now, or is it a different entity altogether?

[jhpigott]

Looks like the Euro starting to spin something up in the Caribbean as well in the 12z at 216hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=384

[SFLcane]

[blp]

Yeah Euro OPS starting to show more vorticity. Let's see what the ensembles say. The wave behind Sam helps provide the energy. Makes sense.

[Teban54]

I cannot tell; is that WCAR system the same as the lemon AOI now, or is it a different entity altogether?

Seems like it's mostly a different origin (CAG-like to me), but on some runs the remnant vorticity from the lemon AOI enters the CAG and provides it some boost. 0z GFS shows this, not sure if it's shown on any other runs.

[Hammy]

Looks like we're out of names by end of month if the models are right about the two systems behind Sam.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1442208663347900417



I must say, the presence of all 4 remnants gave me a good chuckle.

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/2860FXLj/E07-B5-DCD-9556-4-FC0-A423-E673-BA1-E3-E28.png

https://i.postimg.cc/MpftgMYh/12-E8-AFD8-1-A6-C-4-F6-E-8-CE2-F3-AD151-AF008.png

https://i.postimg.cc/X7zQ2c9f/5628-D81-A-B1-D0-414-F-BF9-A-BDB6-D111-C57-A.png

GFS ensembles seem pretty consistent in depicting genesis in the NW Caribbean and scooting it off to the NE crossing central or eastern Cuba, mostly missing S FL to the SE. Bahamas would be threatened in that case however.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/2860FXLj/E07-B5-DCD-9556-4-FC0-A423-E673-BA1-E3-E28.png

https://i.postimg.cc/MpftgMYh/12-E8-AFD8-1-A6-C-4-F6-E-8-CE2-F3-AD151-AF008.png

https://i.postimg.cc/X7zQ2c9f/5628-D81-A-B1-D0-414-F-BF9-A-BDB6-D111-C57-A.png

GFS ensembles seem pretty consistent in depicting genesis in the NW Caribbean and scooting it off to the NE crossing central or eastern Cuba, mostly missing S FL to the SE. Bahamas would be threatened in that case however.

Nah, you cray cray. There isn't any consistency to be remotely confident in. The run before showed absolutely nothing

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/2860FXLj/E07-B5-DCD-9556-4-FC0-A423-E673-BA1-E3-E28.png

https://i.postimg.cc/MpftgMYh/12-E8-AFD8-1-A6-C-4-F6-E-8-CE2-F3-AD151-AF008.png

https://i.postimg.cc/X7zQ2c9f/5628-D81-A-B1-D0-414-F-BF9-A-BDB6-D111-C57-A.png

GFS ensembles seem pretty consistent in depicting genesis in the NW Caribbean and scooting it off to the NE crossing central or eastern Cuba, mostly missing S FL to the SE. Bahamas would be threatened in that case however.

Nah, you cray cray. There isn't any consistency to be remotely confident in. The run before showed absolutely nothing

operational run yes- but several ensemble runs I thought have shown the Caribbean development. Maybe I am crazy.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1442470622345506816

[SouthFLTropics]

The operational runs of the GFS keep moving back and forth between development and non-development in the Western Caribbean in the long range, as does the GEFS. While this could be indicative of a "phantom" storm, I still believe it is likely that something tries to spin up down there sometime between October 8th to the 15th. I think the big X factor that the long range models are struggling with is potential land interaction. If whatever tries to develop gets hung up in Central or South America then it greatly lowers the chances of a cyclone. However, the runs that have shown something remaining over the Caribbean Sea have shown development. Time will tell if this is just a ghost or something more significant.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1442208663347900417?s=20
I must say, the presence of all 4 remnants gave me a good chuckle.

It's time for an Atlantic Remnant Sale! (everything is half price!)

[chris_fit]

06z GEFS still pretty active @ 240 hours...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1442474261373882372

[SouthFLTropics]

At around 210 hours the 12z GFS appears to try and get something going in the Caribbean but once again it looks like it rolls into Central America and never has a chance.

[Deshaunrob17]

Both CMC and GFS show the second wave catching up to the first wave forming one system after they both die off due to TUTT.. Haha if that scenario unfolds, what will be the name?

[AnnularCane]

Both CMC and GFS show the second wave catching up to the first wave forming one system after they both die off due to TUTT.. Haha if that scenario unfolds, what will be the name?

Victanda.

Sorry.