2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS has a west-moving TC in the SW Atlantic, originating from some of Peter's remnant vorticity interacting with an upper level low. The model has been on and off with this developing, but this run has a bonafide tropical storm. Another impulse to watch moving forward.

(watch ex-peter get split)

[Teban54]

18z GFS has a west-moving TC in the SW Atlantic, originating from some of Peter's remnant vorticity interacting with an upper level low. The model has been on and off with this developing, but this run has a bonafide tropical storm. Another impulse to watch moving forward.

(watch ex-peter get split)
https://imgur.com/oVzLpVw

If that develops, would it still be named Peter? Or would that be Teresa or Victor?

[aspen]

18z GFS has a west-moving TC in the SW Atlantic, originating from some of Peter's remnant vorticity interacting with an upper level low. The model has been on and off with this developing, but this run has a bonafide tropical storm. Another impulse to watch moving forward.

(watch ex-peter get split)
https://imgur.com/oVzLpVw

If that develops, would it still be named Peter? Or would that be Teresa or Victor?

There’s a wave in the MDR that could develop and would get the name Teresa. However, it seems that the GFS and Euro develop two completely different waves, and the CMC tries to develop both of them.

[SFLcane]

Lol What…

[boca]

This is the first time Florida getting hit by a model storm all season.

[Teban54]

This is the first time Florida getting hit by a model storm all season.

Elsa and Fred have joined the chat.

[SFLcane]

18z euro is weaker and further SW.

[aspen]

18z euro is weaker and further SW.

Sam, or one of those later MDR storms?

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GEFS show strong ensemble support for another MDR storm behind Sam (which easily heads off to sea), but around the October 8 timeframe, there's some moderate support for what looks to be an WCAR system.

[Teban54]

[Wave(s) behind TD18/Sam]

0z GFS gets this wave much stronger, peak at 986 mb just west of the CV islands. Weakens pretty quickly after the peak though, as it recurves rather sharply at 30W.

0z CMC continues to develop both waves after TD18 like it has been doing for a few runs already, but this time both TCs remain just far enough that they stay generally intact on their own. Unlike the GFS, it wants both to stay at low latitudes on a WNW almost due west track, more in line with 12z Euro.

CMC still weakens them towards the end of the run, but the storm in front might make a run at the Caribbean.

[Teban54]

[Possible Disturbance in the Gulf]

0z GFS again shows a 998 mb storm in the Gulf at 300 hrs, and makes landfall in the Big Bend at 978 mb. The precursor seems to be the cutoff low near Florida that helped steer TD18/Sam OTS. At 222 hrs, it starts to show some vorticity that passes through the Florida Straits, loops around the west tip of Cuba before heading into the Gulf.

Keep in mind GFS is the only model that shows the cutoff low for now.

[Kohlecane]

[Possible Disturbance in the Gulf]

0z GFS again shows a 998 mb storm in the Gulf at 300 hrs, and makes landfall in the Big Bend at 978 mb. The precursor seems to be the cutoff low near Florida that helped steer TD18/Sam OTS. At 222 hrs, it starts to show some vorticity that passes through the Florida Straits, loops around the west tip of Cuba before heading into the Gulf.

Keep in mind GFS is the only model that shows the cutoff low for now.

https://i.ibb.co/zbJJJYr/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-366.gif

Seems to me Part of Peter influences this

[aspen]

So far all models weaken the second AEW system as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, if it’s low enough and gets going quickly, perhaps it could become a hurricane before reaching 40-45W.

[toad strangler]

Lol What…

https://i.postimg.cc/66Vwj7Dq/6-BA57-E19-4914-49-D1-91-D4-F5-D2-F07-A0274.gif

6Z GFS does something similar

[underthwx]

Lol What…

https://i.postimg.cc/66Vwj7Dq/6-BA57-E19-4914-49-D1-91-D4-F5-D2-F07-A0274.gif

6Z GFS does something similar

Is that the new area behind Sam that model refers to?

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for the new wave that will emerge Africa in the next few days and the models develop so now the members can post them at the thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122331&p=2946414#p2946414

[mpic]

I am confused. I have always been told and believed that you never let your guard down or declare the season over in Texas until the middle of October. A Met that I follow, trust and who has never in the past been wrong just declared that Texas is in the clear for the season. Is this true?

[tolakram]

I am confused. I have always been told and believed that you never let your guard down or declare the season over in Texas until the middle of October. A Met that I follow, trust and who has never in the past been wrong just declared that Texas is in the clear for the season. Is this true?

True? Impossible to answer IMO, this met apparently believes it.

[mpic]

I am confused. I have always been told and believed that you never let your guard down or declare the season over in Texas until the middle of October. A Met that I follow, trust and who has never in the past been wrong just declared that Texas is in the clear for the season. Is this true?

True? Impossible to answer IMO, this met apparently believes it.

We have a cold front coming through which is typical for Sept. Next week will be back in the 90s with high humidity. This is unusual for him so maybe he's in some kind of crisis. I hope he's right but people follow him religiously.

[tolakram]

I am confused. I have always been told and believed that you never let your guard down or declare the season over in Texas until the middle of October. A Met that I follow, trust and who has never in the past been wrong just declared that Texas is in the clear for the season. Is this true?

True? Impossible to answer IMO, this met apparently believes it.

We have a cold front coming through which is typical for Sept. Next week will be back in the 90s with high humidity. This is unusual for him so maybe he's in some kind of crisis. I hope he's right but people follow him religiously.

Every year we go through the cold front posts. Every year people think it's early, the first modelled cold front of the year usually doesn't do much, BUT what can be said is that as the season progresses Texas sees less and less landfalling storms. I'm not sure we've hit the extremes of early and late storms yet so I would be very hesitant to predict an all clear.