2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2221 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:27 am

cycloneye wrote:What was that? Never seen it before about landfall in SA.


That’s just beyond ridiculous.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2222 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:40 am

Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2223 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:47 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What was that? Never seen it before about landfall in SA.


That’s just beyond ridiculous.



I thought that track looked similar with Matthew's.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2224 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.

I mean it's the GFS 11 days out, maybe one of them happens but very unlikely of the GFS being true this far out for two potential systems especially when it's been flip flopping every run. Went from a major in the S Caribbean to a weak TS zooming off north in just one run. And note that even the ensembles have been flip flopping around, i can't even remember a recent run where the operational model showed some agreement with the ensembles...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2225 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:13 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Latest GFS run shows Wanda and Adria forming by October 31, which (in a very very hypothetical event) would completely shatter the idea that this October would be storm-free.

I mean it's the GFS 11 days out, maybe one of them happens but very unlikely of the GFS being true this far out for two potential systems especially when it's been flip flopping every run. Went from a major in the S Caribbean to a weak TS zooming off north in just one run. And note that even the ensembles have been flip flopping around, i can't even remember a recent run where the operational model showed some agreement with the ensembles...


Yeah it's window wipers effect. Honestly the GEFS ensembles imho have been the easiest to follow given they have been very consistent so far, and their general idea is that there's a chance we could see a potent Caribbean Sea storm form by the end of October or very early next month. As for track some have it taking a Omar/Lenny eastward track while others have it going due north toward Jamaica or even west into the WCAR, but I think especially with the favorable MJO coming in by then as well as CPC Hazards noting the Caribbean as a moderate risk zone of some TC formation two weeks from now, I think this potential disturbance *could* finally end the long inactivity in the Atlantic this past several weeks.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2226 Postby MHC Tracking » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:24 pm

I'll wait until the precursor low forms for this disturbance, but if it does, I will become more interested in its future. 06z GFS sure was something you don't see every day :lol:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2227 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:56 pm

The incipient disturbance looks to be a tropical wave interacting with a trough. On the 6z run ridging built back in after the trough, trapping the system in the Caribbean. Most runs follow the trough out to sea, which ensembles have favored. A minority get trapped and deepen.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2228 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:06 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:The incipient disturbance looks to be a tropical wave interacting with a trough. On the 6z run ridging built back in after the trough, trapping the system in the Caribbean. Most runs follow the trough out to sea, which ensembles have favored. A minority get trapped and deepen.


Ah yes, no wonder why a decent number of the ensembles have this system going due east or northeast, the dynamics are similar to what we saw with Lenny and Omar
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2229 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:02 pm

GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2230 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:34 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board :lol:
Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2231 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:40 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board :lol:
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif


Nothing on the ensembles, probably just another ghost storm
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2232 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:43 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board :lol:
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif

Way too early to predict this possible system’s intensity, but it would appear there’s the potential for a very complicated steering setup that could either send it OTS, or block it and force it to stay around the islands. As mentioned earlier in the thread, genesis appears to be spawned by a wave interacting with a front.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2233 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:46 pm

Who says we can’t get another Happy hour gfs run before season is lights out. If that happens I will get a tattoo of that run on my back.

Gfs your just spam.

:spam:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2234 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:49 pm

skyline385 wrote:Nothing on the ensembles, probably just another ghost storm

Not a 'ghost' because the wave is trackable. But as with the last modeled Caribbean system, this wave has to not dive into South America to actually have a chance. GFS has a trough lifting the wave northward and permitting development. I'm a little doubtful on this particular wave, because other models have stronger ridging burying it without a chance at development. The GFS does have a tendency to overdo troughing. I guess the wave has another shot if it emerges back offshore near Panama, but would probably be less amplified/weaker at that point. Just speculating there.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2235 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:10 pm

That Trough would eventually force the Hurricane to either Florida, or just east of it, but it's beyond the GFS limit & we would never know what happens next.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2236 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:13 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:GFS....please, cease. Please be nice to us. Thank you.

Maybe this will get all the Floridians back on board :lol:
https://i.ibb.co/rdLCKv8/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh144-384.gif


There's the GFS, then there is the GFS-c (GFS on crack)...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2237 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:55 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2238 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:47 pm



:hehe: TOO Funny, and yet SO true :roll:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2239 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:53 pm

0z GFS develops it again, but this time stays just to the south of PR and intensifies much slower. Would bring heavy rainfall to PR though.

Edit: Lol what? 989 mb to 969 mb in 6 hours?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2240 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:21 am

00z GFS run:

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