2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Just stuff this far out but nonetheless
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yeah, the exact timing and strength may not be correct. Regardless, I feel like we are watching previews for coming attractions for next month.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
If the cutoff low doesn’t develop, that would be Wanda — an October WCar major just like the first W storm.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Two weeks out, but someone's gotta post it.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.
It's a Matthew-type storm: Misses Florida to the East & Makes Landfall in South Carolina . . .
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hooks to the west and hits SC.SouthFLTropics wrote:Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:Whew...Close call!!! Just skims the coast and rides the Gulf Stream on the way out. For Floridian's it's time to refocus on the Caribbean. I think we are going to see many more runs like this in the coming days and weeks.
No close call there hurricane force winds across Dade and Broward easily.
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Irene 1999 would be an excellent analog storm for this modeled run. Albeit Irene was a hair west and came over South Florida.
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.
THAT'S IT
THAT'S IT
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The pattern is there as I mentioned earlier today either Cuba or SFL. No ridging to safe Florida potentially this time around. NE tracks
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
toad strangler wrote:The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.
THAT'S IT
If you consider gfs now has development near 200hrs. Well see if the signal is there in a week. Don’t think this will be another gulf October.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.
Of course. Relax. There isn't another model that reaches this far out Nobody is sounding an alarm.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.
GFS is the only model that goes out that far so it would take a while for other models to get to the time frame.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
IcyTundra wrote:blp wrote:Nope, it can show it 10 runs in a row, I won't bite. Need to see another model onboard first. GFS has a long history of phantoms from the Columbian low.
GFS is the only model that goes out that far so it would take a while for other models to get to the time frame.
The precursor low starts forming at about 8-9 days out, so if this is a legit system, we should start seeing that low pop up on the CMC and Euro over the coming days.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:The one and only thing I take from this 18z GFS run is that it's just a long range signal for now.
THAT'S IT
If you consider gfs now has development near 200hrs. Well see if the signal is there in a week. Don’t think this will be another gulf October.
GEFS shows next to nothing. No surprise. Onward.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I'll believe those models if they don't push off the dates.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I remember last year GFS repeatedly showed precursors of Delta and Zeta hitting Florida in the long range, then corrected itself on a more western track.
Was it a ridge or something that prevented Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota from early recurves? Seems like even though GFS will probably see many track changes before something actually forms, that exact scenario is unlikely to play out this year.
Was it a ridge or something that prevented Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota from early recurves? Seems like even though GFS will probably see many track changes before something actually forms, that exact scenario is unlikely to play out this year.
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