2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

GFS in around 12 days showing this in the gulf, it's the east pacific system crossing over after nearing Mexico. Nothing else showing this, but interesting none the less.

https://i.imgur.com/ybpVzif.png

Yeah, it does a crossover, regeneration and then hits in the Laura/Delta area of SWLA/SETX. It's too far out to take seriously, but it does show the closed isobars a week from Sunday. Maybe it's just anecdotal, but crossover systems seem to happen more early and particularly late in a given season.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 606&fh=264

Landfall looks like a week from Monday morning in the 990's - so could be a hurricane per the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 606&fh=294

[robbielyn]

is it really possible to get a cat 3in the gulf in june? i ask because weatherman plus is calling for a cat 3 and even though it shows it hitting LA, he believes it will head to tampa as the high moves out. but usually the gulf is usually hostile with sheer. but a cat 3? is the water warm enough for a cat 3 in the beginning of june? i know it’s in the 80s but throughout the gulf? maybe it’s just a phantom. usually we get sloppy lopsided t.s.’s not ct 3’s.

[AnnularCane]

is it really possible to get a cat 3in the gulf in june? i ask because weatherman plus is calling for a cat 3 and even though it shows it hitting LA, he believes it will head to tampa as the high moves out. but usually the gulf is usually hostile with sheer. but a cat 3? is the water warm enough for a cat 3 in the beginning of june? i know it’s in the 80s but throughout the gulf? maybe it’s just a phantom. usually we get sloppy lopsided t.s.’s not ct 3’s.

Audrey. Although that was end of June. Early June is probably less likely, although I won't say impossible.

[sphelps8681]

Come on. Some of rivers here in SETX are in major or moderate flooding near me. We do not need this thing hitting setx/swla. Ugh!! Hope it does not pan out.

[cheezyWXguy]

is it really possible to get a cat 3in the gulf in june? i ask because weatherman plus is calling for a cat 3 and even though it shows it hitting LA, he believes it will head to tampa as the high moves out. but usually the gulf is usually hostile with sheer. but a cat 3? is the water warm enough for a cat 3 in the beginning of june? i know it’s in the 80s but throughout the gulf? maybe it’s just a phantom. usually we get sloppy lopsided t.s.’s not ct 3’s.

Sure it’s possible, but given that no reliable indicator or forecasting tool could suggest this at this time, his claims sound more like hurricane cold-reading

[Ivanhater]

GFS has been consistent the last few days with showing some type of tropical storm moving into the Gulf around June 12th.



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[cycloneye]

GFS goes bonkers but is too far, 2 Sundays from today.

[cycloneye]

The Western Caribbean one starts on June 9th.

[BobHarlem]

GFS goes bonkers but is too far, 2 Sundays from today.

https://i.imgur.com/GjeQ1wU.png

The GFS Really hates Southwest Louisiana, they had enough last year, thanks. And Bermuda too.

[ChrisH-UK]

There is a shift in winds over the Caribbean normally they will flow east to west. The mountains of Central America, Colombia and Venezuela cause eddies in the atmosphere and help to form tropical cyclones in the East Pacific. The shift to a north west flow means the from eddies are sent out over the Caribbean causing a circulation to occur which may become a tropical cyclonic system. However the general trend for things forming in that area is the tend to move west in the end it could well end up been a hurricane in the East Pacific.

850mb Vorticity from Tropical Tidbits. See how much vorticity is caused by wind flowing around the mountains and volcanos causing eddies.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/DaultonBahm/status/1399138465078468610

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shifts to the EPAC. Expect to see many more shifts:

[ChrisH-UK]

The vorticity that the model had in the Atlantic has also shifted west and is now coming along Cuba and in to the Gulf, latest run has it strung out heading to Texas. On the other hand the ECMWF has it running up the east coast of the US. The latest runs of the GFS are also have it showing up in the 700mb and 500mb levels forming up over Brahmas and moving up the east coast. Looking at the shear forecasts it looks like to be in a shear bubble and at the 200mb winds, the winds are wrapping around it favourably.

ECMWF 850mb Vorticity via Weathermodels.com

[Shell Mound]

Based on the projected setup I could envision something forming over the northeastern GoM and moving WNW toward LA or MS. Beginning on day three, there should be a prolonged period of low-level convergence over the NE GoM, extending as far as day seven. During the same timeframe a cutoff low will be retrograding into the northwestern Caribbean, leaving divergent upper-level anticyclonic flow over the NE GoM, immediately to the south of a stalled or decaying frontal boundary. With a “ridge over troubled waters” building overhead from the east, this is a classic setup for TC genesis in early June.

[CyclonicFury]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

[cycloneye]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Well said.

[ncforecaster89]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

[SFLcane]

It’s to early for this lol GFS drinking for the long weekend.

[Patrick99]

It’s to early for this lol GFS drinking for the long weekend.

https://i.postimg.cc/QdtspV8q/E9-F53255-2376-445-C-B606-E87314978-B36.png

Fun! I see the GFS is starting its annual long-range assault on Miami early this year. It goes on to absolutely lace the entire peninsula, then turn left at Jacksonville and run through the panhandle as well.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1399434755398148099