2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1089
Age: 30
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2181 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:59 am

About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
Image
4 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2182 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:44 am

What's even more interesting is the recent GEFS ensembles have a handful of quite potent systems in the WCAR in the very end of this month and early November.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2183 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:49 pm

The 12Z GEFS is suggesting no big threats through day 16. Just a handful of members out of 31 from time to time having a weak system mainly in the Caribbean post day 10. It frankly looks boring, which is a great thing!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2184 Postby blp » Sun Oct 17, 2021 2:50 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/img]


Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

Image
4 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2185 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:02 pm

blp wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/url]


Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

https://i.ibb.co/vXDXw9f/ecens-2021-10-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png


And only a very few active members in the 11-15 day portion of the 12Z EPS.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2186 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:06 pm

What do the ensembles think of WPAC and EPAC activity? Is it also pretty quiet in those basins as well?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2187 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:12 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:What do the ensembles think of WPAC and EPAC activity? Is it also pretty quiet in those basins as well?


Yes, it's very quiet in the West Pac. Been much quieter than normal this season out there. May see a storm develop in the East Pac late this week. GFS says into southern MX, ECMWF takes it near southern Baja in 10-11 days. We'll see.
2 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2188 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:35 pm

Image

Image

I'm not sure if I understand this correctly, but is this even like possible?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2189 Postby blp » Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:09 pm

LarryWx wrote:
blp wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:About as calm as the ensembles get this time of year. From days 10-15, less than 30% of members develop.
[]https://i.imgur.com/ulXJexX.png[/url]


Wow even quieter on the 12z. Almost nothing out there.

https://i.ibb.co/vXDXw9f/ecens-2021-10-17-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png


And only a very few active members in the 11-15 day portion of the 12Z EPS.


That takes us out to the 1st of Nov. I know last year we had crazy active November and but that was extremely unusual. I do think we should have started seeing a signal in the ensembles by now especially the GEFS. The fronts are coming earlier this year so I think the door is closing quickly.

Flashback Oct 15 2020. The precursor runs to Zeta showed up very well on GEFS and Euro Ens.

I am going to wait and see another week before I start feeling we are more in the clear.

Oct 15 2020 Euro Ensembles
Image

Oct 15 2020 GFS Ensembles Trend
Image
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2190 Postby skyline385 » Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:09 am

Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system :lol:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1089
Age: 30
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2191 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:26 am

0 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2192 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:35 am

You know, I am actually sort of rooting for that GFS Cape Verde system to verify so that we get a harmless fish storm (maybe a bit of rain to the Cape Verde islands but hopefully nothing severe) that also gets a name and shatters numerous records.
2 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2193 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:46 am

06z GFS has another Pamela-like system (at least similar to what early models showed Pamela would be), forming at 100 hr and making landfall at 180 hr.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2194 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:21 am

The GFS has had a TC north of the GAs for two runs in a row. The source looks to be vorticity cutting off from a front or interacting with a front, which now seems like more probable genesis then something from an AEW, seeing how the Atlantic has failed so many times over the last few weeks.

How we’re looking at yet another possible October EPac hurricane in a -0.8C La Niña is beyond me.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2195 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:34 am

skyline385 wrote:Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/wf6BOMZ.png

Interestingly, 1934 featured a major hurricane in the same general vicinity of the Sargasso Sea during late November: a TC that attained 100-kt MSW at 26.6°N 66.5°W on 23 November. As far as the MDR is concerned: 1878, per reanalysis (see revised HURDAT, Excel spreadsheet, under “Supplementary Materials”), featured a TS at 17°N 50°W on 25 November. 1896 also featured a hurricane in the northwestern portion of the MDR on the very last day of October. Given available deficiencies in the “official” record, there have probably been more than a few hurricanes in the MDR during part of November.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2196 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:42 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Another GFS run with a Nov 1 CV system :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/wf6BOMZ.png

Interestingly, 1934 featured a major hurricane in the same general vicinity of the Sargasso Sea during late November: a TC that attained 100-kt MSW at 26.6°N 66.5°W on 23 November. As far as the MDR is concerned: 1878, per reanalysis (see revised HURDAT, Excel spreadsheet, under “Supplementary Materials”), featured a TS at 17°N 50°W on 25 November. 1896 also featured a hurricane in the northwestern portion of the MDR on the very last day of October. Given available deficiencies in the “official” record, there have probably been more than a few hurricanes in the MDR during part of November.


Those were in the Western MDR, though. A Cape Verde storm (20-35 W) in November has never been seen before.
1 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2197 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:47 pm

I looked at the most recent GEFS, and quite interesting, while by no means is it a striking number and strength, there are some members that actually develop the Cape Verde system into a bona fide TS by the month's end. Also I think the WCAR may be a place to watch by the extreme end of this month going into November, the GEFS is back to being pretty aggressive with a Michelle or Paloma-like system then. Those imho are the two best opportunities to see development in the next few weeks.
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2198 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:49 pm

The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2199 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:51 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I looked at the most recent GEFS, and quite interesting, while by no means is it a striking number and strength, there are some members that actually develop the Cape Verde system into a bona fide TS by the month's end. Also I think the WCAR may be a place to watch by the extreme end of this month going into November, the GEFS is back to being pretty aggressive with a Michelle or Paloma-like system then. Those imho are the two best opportunities to see development in the next few weeks.


I would personally disregard the system that develops near Cape Verde. While the MDR development in October and November is possible, Cape Verde development (east of 35 W) has been recorded in neither late October nor November.
0 likes   

Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Age: 22
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2200 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Oct 18, 2021 3:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z EPS is pretty much a snooze-fest, which is a good thing of course.


How far out in time does the EPS go?
0 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: NessFrogVenom, zzzh and 57 guests