2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2141 Postby blp » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:01 pm

12z Euro looks to be finally latching onto the MDR vorticity. Joins the GFS, CMC, Icon and Navgem. If the run extended out I would expect that it would develop in the W. Caribbean. Conditions will be ripe in that region.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2142 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:03 pm

12z euro has a highly amplified (nearly closed) wave in the Caribbean by day 10. Not much but finally the guidance (outside the GFS) is picking up on this eastern MDR wave. CMC also has a Caribbean depression in the same timeframe.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2143 Postby blp » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:09 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:12z euro has a highly amplified (nearly closed) wave in the Caribbean by day 10. Not much but finally the guidance (outside the GFS) is picking up on this eastern MDR wave. CMC also has a Caribbean depression in the same timeframe.


Yep, seems to be the furthest North of all the models. Definitely on that trajectory you have to think it will develop and be dangerous. Let's see what the ensembles say in the longer range.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2144 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:42 pm

Quite a few GEPS ensembles like that MDR disturbance; gotta admit, something tells me that there's a good chance that by the end of this month we will be looking at a very different Atlantic from what we are currently seeing and will have an opportunity to track at least one NS.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2145 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:51 pm

MJO likely moving in now. So models will start to pick up on genesis by the weekend.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2146 Postby Spacecoast » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:00 pm

Comparing 12z ensemble runs....
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and Climate Prediction adds moderate confidence to MDR system
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2147 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:39 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2148 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:40 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2149 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:42 pm



Party is over huh well yea potentially. I have been reiterating that last couple of days.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2150 Postby Stormybajan » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:03 pm

Hmmmm Navgem with a 998mb storm by the windward islands by hour 180..euro and cmc also shows some energy around that timeframe. So theres that...just need to look for hints of anything getting concentrated in 5 days +
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2151 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Party is over huh well yea potentially. I have been reiterating that last couple of days.


I sure hope it's over. Lots of shear across the Gulf now. Western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic (fish storm) still have some potential for development.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2152 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


Party is over huh well yea potentially. I have been reiterating that last couple of days.


I sure hope it's over. Lots of shear across the Gulf now. Western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic (fish storm) still have some potential for development.


Gulf sure it’s been over for them for a few weeks. SFL on the other hand not quite there yet but getting closer everyday.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2153 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:26 pm

Stormybajan wrote:Hmmmm Navgem with a 998mb storm by the windward islands by hour 180..euro and cmc also shows some energy around that timeframe. So theres that...just need to look for hints of anything getting concentrated in 5 days +


If only the nogaps was worth a look. Worthless model not sure why Levi runs it quite frankly.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2154 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


Party is over huh well yea potentially. I have been reiterating that last couple of days.


I sure hope it's over. Lots of shear across the Gulf now. Western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic (fish storm) still have some potential for development.

Good thing the Gulf is closed for business, because SSTs are running far higher than they were in October 2020 — and it still saw two late-season majors.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2155 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:44 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2156 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:58 pm



That looks like a classic S FL season ender and right in line with the weak sauce we have been saying is still on the table. I'd root for that to verify as shown. :uarrow:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2157 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm

aspen wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Party is over huh well yea potentially. I have been reiterating that last couple of days.


I sure hope it's over. Lots of shear across the Gulf now. Western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic (fish storm) still have some potential for development.

Good thing the Gulf is closed for business, because SSTs are running far higher than they were in October 2020 — and it still saw two late-season majors.


However, there is still a chance that one of the systems manages to sneak in-between the Dry Air & the Wind Shear (Eta 2020), it could have a good chance of becoming stronger.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2158 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:19 pm



You read my mind sir.

Maybe a stray SW Carib storm but the intensity of the cold fronts is picking up every week. Me thinks that outside of the tropics, the US is in for a rude winter.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2159 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:45 pm

johngaltfla wrote:


You read my mind sir.

Maybe a stray SW Carib storm but the intensity of the cold fronts is picking up every week. Me thinks that outside of the tropics, the US is in for a rude winter.

More crazier than Last Winter? :eek:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2160 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:


You read my mind sir.

Maybe a stray SW Carib storm but the intensity of the cold fronts is picking up every week. Me thinks that outside of the tropics, the US is in for a rude winter.

More crazier than Last Winter? :eek:


Yes. Check your animals in the wild, watch their behavior and see if they look like they have acquired thicker layers of fur, etc. Just a hunch, no long term models I trust yet. By the first of November they should start popping off then to confirm one way or another.
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